NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach

Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Plamen T. Nenov, Alp Simsek

NBER Working Paper No. 25959
Issued in June 2019
NBER Program(s):The Asset Pricing Program, The Corporate Finance Program, The Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program, The Monetary Economics Program

We provide evidence on the stock market consumption wealth effect by using a local labor market analysis and regional heterogeneity in stock market wealth. An increase in local stock wealth driven by aggregate stock prices increases local employment and payroll in nontradable industries and in total, while having no effect on employment in tradable industries. In a model with consumption wealth effects and geographic heterogeneity, these responses imply a marginal propensity to consume out of a dollar of stock wealth of 2.8 cents per year. We also use the model to quantify the aggregate effects of a stock market wealth shock when monetary policy is passive. A 20% increase in stock valuations, unless countered by monetary policy, increases the aggregate labor bill by at least 0.85% and aggregate hours by at least 0.28% two years after the shock.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w25959

 
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