Research

New NBER Papers

Latest Books

American Agriculture, Water Resources, and Climate Change

Book

Author(s): Gary D. Libecap & Ariel Dinar

Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, volume 4

Book

Author(s): Matthew Kotchen, Tatyana Deryugina & James H. Stock

The Digest

The Fed’s Monetary Tightening and the Risk Levels of US Banks
Article
  Between March 7, 2022, and March 6, 2023, the Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by nearly 4.5 percentage points. This led to a $2.2 trillion aggregate decline in the market value of long-term bank assets such as government bonds, mortgages, and corporate loans. These decreases are not fully reflected in banks’ book values. In Monetary Tightening and US Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs? (NBER...

Pandemic-Related Shifts in Low Wage Labor Markets
Article
While the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic saw the sharpest drop in US employment of the post-WWII era, the post-2020 employment rebound has been as dramatic as the fall that preceded it. Amidst this labor market tightening, the relative standing of young, non-college-educated workers — who are disproportionately near the bottom of the earnings distribution — improved. Real wages of workers at the 10th percentile of the hourly earnings distribution rose by 6.4 percent...

The Reporter

Program Report: Political Economy
Article
By Francesco Trebbi and Ebonya Washington* The mission of the NBER’s Political Economy Program is to provide a forum for the discussion and distribution of theoretical and empirical research that identifies and addresses political constraints on economic problems. The program flourished under the vision and leadership of founding director Alberto Alesina from its launch in 2006 until his untimely death in 2020. As codirectors, we are grateful to him for shaping it...

The Changing Structure of American Innovation
Article
Author(s): Ashish Arora & Sharon Belenzon
The COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was a result of the joint efforts of three types of organization. University of Pennsylvania researchers, notably Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman, performed some of the foundational research. Startups, including BioNTech, Moderna, and Arbutus, among others, developed key elements of the technology required to safely deliver the vaccine. Established pharmaceutical firms, notably Pfizer, were responsible for testing, production, and distribution....

The Bulletin on Retirement & Disability

Work and Benefit Applications through the Second Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Article
During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, workers ages 50 to 70 were about 10 percent less likely to be working relative to pre-pandemic levels. Unlike in previous recessions, when older workers turned to Social Security disability insurance or retirement benefits, the drop in employment in the pandemic’s first year was accompanied by a decline in applications for disability insurance and no significant change in retirement applications. As the pandemic...

Comparing Behavioral Approaches to Increasing Savings
Article
Many older American households approaching retirement age have accumulated little in the way of retirement savings. Over the past two decades, behavioral researchers have explored a variety of potential “nudges” designed to increase retirement savings. Many of these interventions have been shown to have substantial impacts on retirement savings behavior. However, validating, comparing, and selecting from different approaches can be difficult. Existing studies differ in...

The Bulletin on Health

Costs and Consequences of COVID’s Impact on Nonurgent Care
Article
A new study of COVID-19-related disruptions in health care sheds light on the value of nonurgent medical care. In Mortality Effects of Healthcare Supply Shocks: Evidence Using Linked Deaths and Electronic Health Records (NBER Working Paper 30553), Engy Ziedan, Kosali I. Simon, and Coady Wing compare people who had outpatient appointments scheduled in the 30 days immediately before the March 13, 2020, pandemic declaration with those who had appointments scheduled in the...

Racial Concordance and the Take-Up of Preventive Care
Article
Providing preventive care for chronic health conditions has the potential to deliver a rare “win-win” situation in which total costs fall and health care outcomes improve. One of the barriers to such care is mistrust between provider and patient. Such mistrust is one of the factors that can limit the effectiveness of care delivered to Black patients by White doctors rather than their Black counterparts. In Racial Concordance and the Quality of Medical Care: Evidence...

The Bulletin on Entrepreneurship

Startups Drive Commercialization of High-Impact Innovations
Article
Startups have more incentive than incumbent firms to engage in potentially disruptive R&D because large, established firms have more to lose from the discovery of new technologies that replace traditional ways of doing things. With no existing operations, startups have nothing to lose and much to gain from disruptive innovation. In Of Academics and Creative Destruction: Startup Advantage in the Process of Innovation (NBER Working Paper 30362), Julian Kolev, Alexis...

Gender and Race Gaps on the Path to Startup Success
Article
Depending on the data source, 12 and 28 percent of high-growth startups are run by women, although women make up 45 percent of the overall labor force. Fewer than 10 percent of entrepreneurs are Black. In Race and Gender in Entrepreneurial Finance (NBER Working Paper 30444), Michael Ewens surveys available data and presents a framework for assessing gender and race gaps in startup founding, financing, and growth.   The startup path is complex: individual...