2025, 17th Annual Feldstein Lecture, N. Gregory Mankiw," The Fiscal Future"

N. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University, presented the 2025 Martin Feldstein Lecture on "The Fiscal Future," examining the trajectory of US government debt—which is projected to reach 156 percent of GDP by 2055. He analyzed five possible outcomes to address this fiscal path: extraordinary economic growth, government default, large-scale money creation, substantial spending cuts, and large tax increases, concluding that significant tax increases, potentially including a value-added tax, represent the most likely solution. The Feldstein Lecture Series was launched in 2009 to celebrate the late Martin Feldstein's three decades of transformative leadership of the NBER.

Read the transcription of the Lecture

Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant #G-2023-19633, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation grant #20251294, and the National Science Foundation grant #2314841