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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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13 New Studies of Economic Impact
of COVID-19 and Policy Responses

All NBER papers related to COVID-19 are open-access and have been collected for easy reference. View them in reverse chronological order or by topic area.


Research Associate Kosali Simon of Indiana University describes the findings of her research, with a multi-disciplinary team, on how households have responded as states have lifted restrictions as part of their re-opening plans. Watch the video here.

Thirteen NBER working papers distributed this week examine the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the actual or potential consequences of public and private actions to combat it.

The studies analyze the challenges of forecasting the evolution of COVID-19 infection counts (27335), how individual attributes affect the likelihood of experiencing complications when infected with the virus (27294), decision-theoretic tools for evaluating the outcomes of clinical trials of various COIVD-19 treatments (27293), and the role of community characteristics in explaining the geographic dispersion in virus infection rates in the United States (27329).

Other studies explore the differences in work-from-home capacity on industry employment and stock price dynamics (27330), model the tradeoff between the level of economic activity and the number of COVID-19 fatalities (27340), describe the heterogeneity in the labor market impact of COVID-19 on workers of different races, genders, and education levels (27315), present early evidence on the pandemic’s effect on small businesses (27309), summarize the effect of pandemic-related central bank easing on bond yields (27339), consider the relative impacts of central bank relief targeted at small- and medium-sized businesses and relief targeted at financial institutions (27295), report new findings on how individual and community attributes influence compliance with social distancing rules (27320, 27335), and present evidence from Wisconsin on how relaxing work-from-home requirements affected household behavior and virus infection rates (27322).

More than 135 NBER working papers issued since mid-March have presented new pandemic-related research.


The NBER Digest

Federal Reserve Decision-Makers See Stock Market
as Driving Economy and Ease Policy When It Dives




Since 1994, a 10 percent stock market decline has predicted a 32 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and a 127 basis point decrease after one year. An analysis of meeting minutes and transcripts featured in the June edition of The NBER Digest indicates this easing occurs because committee members see the market as driving the overall economy. Also in this issue of the free, monthly Digest are summaries of studies analyzing metered pricing of energy for home heating in China, a Texas program to increase diversity at state universities, and innovation among manufacturers with environmentally conscious consumers, and lockdown strategies for coping with COVID-19, and drug-price inflation.
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New NBER Research

15 June 2020

Hometown Ties and Chinese Government Monitoring

Provincial chief auditors in China show greater leniency in evaluating prefecture governments in their hometowns, finding 38 percent less questionable spending than otherwise, according to research by Jian Chu, Raymond Fisman, Songtao Tan, and Yongxiang Wang.
( ...more... )

12 June 2020

Information and Persistence of the Gender Wage Gap

After California enacted a salary history ban, aiming to eliminate perpetuation of past discrimination, the gender earnings ratio increased by 1 percent, principally driven by women who recently switched jobs, a study by Benjamin Hansen and Drew McNichols finds.
( ...more... )

11 June 2020

Big G: A Look at Government Spending

Analyzing US government procurement contracts, Lydia Cox, Gernot Müller, Ernesto Pastén, Raphael Schoenle, and Michael Weber find that government spending is concentrated in relatively few firms and sectors with relatively sticky prices.
( ...more... )
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Economy Peaked, Entered Recession, in February 2020
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs in economic activity in the United States, has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months. The committee released a statement explaining the factors that contributed to this determination as well as a list of frequently asked questions related to the dating of business cycle peaks and troughs. For further information please contact NBER's Director of Public Information, Charles A. Radin, or visit the Business Cycle Dating Committee page.

Bulletin on Retirement and Disability

The Effects of Sick Pay Mandates




Fewer than half of low-income and part-time workers have access to paid [sick?] leave. In the absence of federal action, numerous states and localities have enacted sick pay mandates. A study summarized in the current issue of the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability finds that following the introduction of a mandate, coverage rises by 13 percentage points, from an initial level of 66 percent overall. Also in this issue: a summary of how student loan forgiveness affects disability insurance applications, a study of how bill timing affects low-income and aged households, and a feature on the NBER Retirement and Disability Research Center’s Training Fellowship program.
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Bulletin on Health

Informational Letters About Tax Penalties for Uninsurance
Raised Insurance Coverage and Reduced Mortality




In 2017, researchers randomly selected households that had previously paid a tax penalty for lack of health insurance and sent them an informational letter about how to avoid paying the penalty in the future. The spring issue of the free Bulletin on Health features a study that compares the outcomes of those who received the letters to the outcomes of those who did not. The researchers report that receipt of the letter was associated with increases in health insurance coverage and small decreases in subsequent mortality. Also featured in this issue of the Bulletin on Health are summaries of a study of how Medicare eligibility impacts cancer outcomes, a study of how a diabetes diagnosis affects subsequent health care and health outcomes, and a profile of NBER research associate Adriana Lleras-Muney.
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The NBER Reporter

Agricultural Productivity in Rich and Poor Nations:
The Impact of Land Institutions and Misallocation




In rich countries less than 5 percent of the labor force works in agriculture, while in poor countries more than 70 percent is employed there. At the same time, real labor productivity is more than 35 times higher in rich nations. An article in the current edition of the NBER Reporter discusses efforts to explain and reduce the gap. Also in this edition of the free quarterly NBER Reporter, NBER affiliates write about their inquiries into the role of the firm in explaining the structure and evolution of wages and worker risk, and the benefits of rehabilitative incarceration of criminals, and importance of barriers to take-up of government initiatives, and the impact of rare events on financial markets.
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