National Bureau of Economic Research
Coronavirus Pandemic Research
Tracking the COVID-19 Economy in Real Time
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented fiscal actions in many nations, as governments have increased spending and provided tax relief to firms and households during a period of economic shutdown. Even after the pandemic recedes, its fiscal effects will continue, since most countries will face higher debt burdens as a result of their expansionary fiscal policies and the path of economic activity will take time to return to its pre-pandemic track. Gita Gopinath, the Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, on leave from her role as an NBER research associate, summarized the fiscal impact of COVID-19 on both developed and developing nations in a plenary address at the NBER's Tax Policy and the Economy meeting in late September. Her presentation may be viewed in the video below. An archive of NBER videos on pandemic-related topics may be found here.
Four NBER working papers distributed this week investigate the COVID-19 pandemic, its economic effects, and public health and economic responses to it. One study analyzes the rise of precautionary saving in the early months of the pandemic (27964). A second explores how various local attributes, such as occupational mix and the degree of income inequality, affected the spread of the virus (27965). A third study describes new challenges that the pandemic poses for emerging markets (27966). The last new paper analyzes survey data from 15 countries and finds that respondents are prepared to trade off some civil liberties during the COVID-19 crisis in return for more favorable public health outcomes (27972).
More than 280 NBER working papers have presented pandemic-related research. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. They may be viewed in reverse chronological order or by topic area.
New Officers, Directors, and Affiliates Named
At its meeting in September, the NBER Board of Directors elected John Lipsky chair and Peter Blair Henry vice chair of the NBER. Four new directors joined the board and 44 researchers were named NBER research associates or faculty research fellows research associates.
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Featured Working Papers
Because the Affordable Care Act subsidies for contraceptives mainly benefited higher socioeconomic groups, the composition of mothers shifted towards less-advantaged groups, where Jie Ma and Kosali I. Simon find evidence of direct improvements in prenatal care and pregnancy-related health.
While the Earned Income Tax Credit expansions has increased maternal labor supply, it has not reduced the time mothers devote to active learning and development activities with their children, Jacob Bastian and Lance Lochner report.
A tax reform in Germany that exempted workers from paying tax on earnings from small secondary jobs, lowering the marginal tax rate by between 19 and 66 percentage points, resulted in a dramatic increase in moonlighting that was not offset by reductions in primary earnings, according to a study by Alisa Tazhitdinova
For emerging market economies, the decade after an inflation stabilization is associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in growth, and a trade liberalization, a 2.7 percentage point increase, Anusha Chari, Peter Blair Henry, and Hector Reyes find.
In cohorts of workers born in the 1940s and 1950s, there is a negative association between union membership and job satisfaction, but the association turns positive for those born between the 1960s and 1990s, according to a study by David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson.
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