National Bureau of Economic Research

When US consumer prices rose sharply between mid-2021 and late 2023, consumer sentiment fell to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, even though unemployment remained low. Surveys found that a majority of Americans identified inflation as a major financial problem. Even well after price growth abated, in 2025, roughly 60 percent of Americans still reported that inflation was a pressing issue.

In Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation (NBER Working Paper 35624), Erik Hurst, Christina Patterson, Nela Thomas Richardson, and Ye Liv Wang use administrative payroll records...

Between 2010 and 2024, medical spending in the US grew from 17.2 percent of GDP to 18.0 percent. This growth was substantially below both historical precedent and actuarial projections by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). By 2024, annual healthcare expenditures were nearly $1 trillion (15 percent) below the 2010 projections. 

In Has the United States Bent the Health Care Cost Curve? (NBER Working Paper 35231), David M. Cutler and Lev R. Klarnet examine potential explanations for this sustained period of slower growth. They compare actual expenditures to the 2010 CMS actuarial forecast, adjusting for differences between anticipated and realized…

Entrepreneurship training is generally intended to improve founders’ chances of success. It may also create value by helping entrepreneurs recognize when a venture no longer warrants further investment of time and resources. If so, effective training could cause some startups to shut down sooner even as it improves outcomes for others. 

In Learning to Quit? A Multi-Year, Multi-Site Field Experiment with Innovation-Driven Entrepreneurs (NBER Working Paper 34755), Esther Bailey, Daniel Fehder, Eric Floyd, Yael Hochberg, and Daniel J. Lee study this possibility through a randomized experiment ...

I am deeply honored to be here with you today to deliver the 2026 Martin Feldstein lecture. I first met Marty more than 30 years ago in the Fall of 1995 as a graduate student in his Public Economics course. I learned so much from him during that course about Social Security and many other topics including individual and corporate income taxation, unemployment insurance, and public goods. I also was fortunate during the next three years of my graduate studies to serve as a Teaching Fellow in both his Principles of Economics and American Economic Policy courses and to have him as one of my advisors on my PhD research. He was a phenomenal teacher and advisor who cared deeply about all of his students. This dedication extended to the entire academic economics profession as evidenced by his inspiring leadership for many years of the NBER…

Nearly one in ten older Americans lives with dementia, a condition that gradually erodes memory and the cognitive skills needed for complex decision-making. Even though Medicare coverage is nearly universal among this age group, traditional Medicare alone leaves significant gaps as it does not cover dental, vision, or hearing care, and it carries substantial cost-sharing. To fill these gaps, beneficiaries must actively choose among several insurance options—enrolling in Medicare Advantage, adding private supplemental insurance to traditional Medicare, or, for those with sufficiently low income and assets, applying for Medicaid. Beneficiaries may make changes during open enrollment each year and must re-enroll in private supplemental coverage or Medicare Advantage if their plan is no longer offered or they fail to pay premiums…