National Bureau of Economic Research

Long-time NBER research associates Joshua Angrist, David Card, and Guido Imbens have been awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in recognition of their contributions to labor economics and the analysis of natural experiments...

Most nations adopted expansionary fiscal policies in response to the economic disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, but the extent and nature of these policies differed from country to country. One important source of variation was the extent to which policies were targeted to workers or firms that were particularly hard-hit by shutdowns or reductions in consumer demand. Whether tax and spending programs that are not well-targeted can provide broadly diffused benefits remains an open question. A new study (29293) by NBER researchers Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas of the University of California, Berkeley and Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan of the University of Maryland, along with Veronika Penciakova of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Nick Sander of the Bank of Canada, investigates this issue using data from 27 nations. A key finding is that expansionary fiscal policy during the pandemic significantly reduced the failure rates of small and medium-sized businesses. Gourinchas summarizes their findings in the video above. An archive of NBER videos on pandemic-related research may be found here.

Five new working papers distributed this week report on the economic, health, and related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and public policies that respond to it. One reviews the economic impact of the pandemic in low- and middle-income countries (29339). Another studies the design of supply chains in the presence of systemic shocks like the pandemic (29345). Two studies analyze the cross-country determinants of macroeconomic policy responses to the pandemic. One explores how the extent of pre-pandemic macroprudential policy tightening affected the use of such policy during the pandemic (29346). The other examines the correlation between political factors, such as polarization, and size of the fiscal policy response (29360). Another study investigates the sources of racial disparities in small business lending associated with the Paycheck Protection Program (29364).

More than 475 NBER working papers have addressed various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. View them in reverse chronological order or by topic area.

In the mid-1800s, mortality rates in US and Western European cities were much higher than those in rural areas. Since then, urban mortality rates have fallen dramatically. Driven by reductions in infectious diseases and diseases of infancy and childhood, this phenomenon is often referred to as the mortality transition and has been recognized as one of the most significant developments in the history of human welfare. By the 1940s, the mortality “penalty” from living in a major urban center had all but disappeared in modern, developed countries.

Economists originally attributed the mortality transition to increases in income, the onset of modern economic growth, and improved...

Using newly collected late midlife measures of skills and life cycle panel data from surveys and administrative criminal records, Jorge Luis García, James J. Heckman, and Victor Ronda explore intergenerational impacts of the Perry Preschool Project (PPP), an early childhood education program designed to promote social mobility among disadvantaged African American children. Their study, The Lasting Effects of Early Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans (NBER Working Paper 29057), finds that the program...

When physicians are accused of malpractice, how does this experience affect their practice of medicine? Researchers Caitlin Carroll, David M. Cutler and Anupam Jena use administrative data on all emergency medicine physicians in Florida to answer this question in How Do Physicians Respond to Malpractice Allegations? Evidence from Florida Emergency Departments (NBER Working Paper 28330).

During the 2005 to 2013 study period, 25 percent of emergency medicine physicians in Florida faced at least one allegation of malpractice. The researchers test…

Social Security is the primary source of income for most individuals aged 65 and up. Benefits depend on the worker’s earning history and on the age at which benefits are claimed, which may be as early as age 62. For each month beyond the Full Retirement Age (FRA) that the worker delays claiming (up to age 70), the monthly benefit amount is increased by the Delayed Retirement Credit (DRC).

The DRC has increased substantially over time, from 3 percent per year of delay for those born prior to 1925 to 8 percent per year of delay for those born in 1943 and later. The DRC increase was phased in gradually in 0.5 percentage point increments every two years. This change has strengthened the incentive to delay claiming for more recent birth cohorts. However, the effects of the policy change have not been extensively studied. …