Can We Really Prevent Financial Crises?
It Might Require Focusing on More than Banks

Anil K. Kashyap of the University of Chicago and the NBER, a member of the financial policy committee of the Bank of England, is researching macroprudential policy, looking at financial regulation and trying to figure out how a rerun of the 2007-08 financial crisis might be avoided.

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21 November 2018

Immigrants, Labor Market Dynamics
and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area

The mobility of foreign born workers in the Eurozone is strongly procyclical, but this is not true for natives, an analysis by Gaetano Basso, Francesco D'Amuri, and Giovanni Peri finds. Eurozone natives also are less mobile across countries than U.S. natives are across states in response to labor demand shocks. This suggests that immigrants accelerate labor market adjustments.

20 November 2018

Estimating Public-Good Complementarity

Improving public safety near urban parks can turn them from public bads to goods, David Albouy, Peter Christensen, and Ignacio Sarmiento-Barbieri report. In a study of Chicago, New York, and Philadelphia, they find that recent reductions in crime have “unlocked” $3 billion in property value.

19 November 2018

Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership

While 71 percent of U.S. households believe that housing is a safe investment, renters are much more likely to perceive housing as risky, Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino find. Current housing decisions and future intentions to buy versus rent are strongly correlated with these perceptions.
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NBER in the News

Understanding Recent Trends in the
Social Security Disability Insurance Program

Disability Insurance is a central component of the Social Security program in the United States. The number of disability insurance recipients rose from under 5 million in 2000 to nearly 9 million in 2014, before beginning a gradual decline to just over 8.5 million today. During the 2018 NBER Summer Institute, NBER researchers Jeffrey Liebman and Nicole Maestas of Harvard University, along with Social Security Administration actuaries Stephen Goss and Karen Glenn, examined recent trends in disability insurance applications and awards, and potential explanations for those trends.

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The NBER Digest

Required Reporting Has Expanded Available Information
Predicting Returns, But Investors Appear Slow to Notice

A survey of publicly traded firms finds that those with few textural changes in their quarterly reports earn significant abnormal returns compared with firms with many changes in those required filings. A summary is featured in the current edition of The NBER Digest. Also featured in this month’s issue are studies exploring the impact of the impact of artificial intelligence on international trade, the influence of parental education and school quality on intergenerational upward mobility, the role of leverage feedback loops in the 2015 Chinese stock market crash, and the effectiveness of a Border Patrol program to curb illegal entry to the United States, and the effect of physician liability on medical spending.

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The NBER Reporter

Exploring How Taxation Influences Quantity, Quality,
and Location Decisions of Inventors and Firms

Taxation levels affect both the quality and quantity innovation, and the location decisions of inventors and firms, according to studies discussed in the latest edition of the quarterly NBER Reporter. Also in this edition of the quarterly Reporter, NBER researchers write about their inquiries into the economics of drug development, what really happened when the housing market collapsed, the role of liquidity in the 2007–09 financial crisis, and the sometimes unforeseen consequences of energy and environmental policies.

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The NBER Bulletin on Aging and Health

Machine Learning, a Subset of Artificial Intelligence,
Has Numerous Applications for Healthcare Challenges

The advent of AI brought vast expectations that the new technology could provide new tools and insights in a wide variety of fields. A recent meeting of healthcare economists, summarized in the current issue of the NBER's Bulletin on Aging and Health, presented concrete examples of how machine learning can aid healthcare researchers and practitioners. One presentation demonstrated the ability of machine learning to predict which patients were most at risk for heart-attack related complications, while another uncovered predictors of potential opioid abuse among Medicare patients. Also in this issue of the Bulletin on Aging and Health: A historical exploration of the male-female life expectancy gap and estimates for the remaining lifetime medical expenses for retirees.

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