In 11th Annual Feldstein Lecture, Katherine Baicker
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Latest Volumes of NBER's Macroeconomics Annual
and Tax Policy and the Economy Are Now Available
In the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, researchers examine the relative safety of the U.S. financial sector today and before the last financial crisis; effects of the crisis on the perceived risk, and possible propagation of large, rare shocks; finite-horizon forward planning compared with rational expectations; changes in the manufacturing sector and employment among prime-aged Americans; "factorless income"; and the effects of border adjustment taxes.
In Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 33, the researchers use asset pricing to value implicit fiscal debts and account for risk properties; study the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the behavior of corporations; investigate whether pre-announced consumption tax changes affect the timing of durable goods purchases; and examine "tax equivalences" and return-free tax filing.
In Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 33, the researchers use asset pricing to value implicit fiscal debts and account for risk properties; study the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the behavior of corporations; investigate whether pre-announced consumption tax changes affect the timing of durable goods purchases; and examine "tax equivalences" and return-free tax filing.
New NBER Research
16 August 2019
Long-Run Weather Forecasting Benefits the Rural Poor
Mark R. Rosenzweig and Christopher R. Udry find that in areas of India where long-term weather forecasts are accurate, investment, migration and rural wages respond to forecasts. They estimate that improved weather forecasting in other parts of the country could save billions of rupees annually.
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15 August 2019
The Changing Structure of American Innovation
Division of innovative labor between research universities and large corporations over the last three decades may have raised the volume of science by universities but it has slowed the transformation of that knowledge into novel products and processes,Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Andrea Patacconi, and Jungkyu Suh find.
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14 August 2019
The Perry Preschoolers at Late Midlife
An analysis by James J. Heckman and Ganesh Karapakula of the life course outcomes of participants in an experimental high-quality preschool program for disadvantaged African-American children in the 1960s finds long-term positive effects on crime, employment, health, and both cognitive and non-cognitive skills.
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More Research
NBER in the News
How big data can change GDP calculations
Mint (India)
August 15, 2019
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Why doesn't the United States have universal health care? The answer has everything to do with race.
The New York Times
August 14, 2019
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A Tax Credit Fueled the Solar Energy Boom. Now It's in Limbo
Wired
August 14, 2019
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Donald Trump Claimed the Impact of His China Tariffs on American Consumers Is 'Virtually None ...
Newsweek
August 14, 2019
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ObamaCare's Medicaid Deception
The Wall Street Journal
August 14, 2019
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Mint (India)
August 15, 2019
Read the Research
Why doesn't the United States have universal health care? The answer has everything to do with race.
The New York Times
August 14, 2019
Read the Research
A Tax Credit Fueled the Solar Energy Boom. Now It's in Limbo
Wired
August 14, 2019
Read the Research
Donald Trump Claimed the Impact of His China Tariffs on American Consumers Is 'Virtually None ...
Newsweek
August 14, 2019
Read the Research or a non-technical summary
ObamaCare's Medicaid Deception
The Wall Street Journal
August 14, 2019
Read the Research
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Bulletin on Health
Penicillin’s Introduction in Post-World War II Italy
Greatly Reduced Mortality and Regional Disparities
The summer issue of the Bulletin on Health features a study of the distributional impact of penicillin’s introduction on mortality in Italy following World War II. Researchers find that mortality rates for penicillin-sensitive causes of death fell by 58 percent, relative to the mean in earlier years. Furthermore, penicillin’s introduction reduced the dispersion of penicillin-sensitive mortality rates across regions by 68 percent, explaining 40 percent of all-cause convergence over this period.
Also featured in the summer issue of the Bulletin on Health are studies of the effects of heating costs on winter deaths, and the effects of California’s change in vaccine laws on vaccination and medical exemption rates.
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The NBER Digest
While China’s Growth Rate Has Been Phenomenal,
Local Padding Means It’s Less than Meets the Eye
It has long been recognized that local governments in China are incentivized to inflate their reports of economic activity because they are rewarded for meeting their growth targets. Research featured in the August edition of the free, monthly NBER Digest finds that national authorities corrected the numbers accurately until 2008, but have been less accurate since then. Also in the August Digest are summaries of studies examining the high percentage of veterans in public service, documenting outcomes for children of the Perry Preschool Project participants, analyzing the stock market wealth effect and analyzing the $500 million bond issuance in the private sector in emerging markets, and gauging the impact of workers’ wage demands when employees understand their company is highly leveraged.
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Bulletin on Retirement and Disability
The Insurance and Liquidity Value
of Social Security Survivors Benefits?
In 2015, the Social Security program paid over $95 billion in survivors benefits to 4.2 million surviving spouses. Research that is the first to explore the protective role of survivors benefit receipt against the short-run financial consequences of a spousal death finds that attaining benefit eligibility is associated with a 34-percentage point increase in Social Security receipt and a 3.1-percentage point decline in labor force participation. Also summarized in this first issue of the free Bulletin on Retirement and Disability: research that estimates the total value of Great Recession-induced disability insurance (DI) awards and a study of the effects of DI awards on the financial outcomes of applicants.
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The NBER Reporter
Accelerated by Policy, China's Population Is Rapidly Aging,
Giving Rise to Multiple Social and Economic Challenges
China's family planning policies have led to a dramatic decline in total fertility, and average life expectancy at birth has increased steadily, from 57.6 years in 1969 to 76.4 in 2017. Research on what such trends mean for the health and well-being of elderly Chinese is featured in the current issue of the free, quarterly NBER Reporter. This issue of The Reporter also includes articles by NBER researchers about their work on the efficacy of the sustainable investing proposition, the economics of Fair Trade, the work of NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program affiliates, and the labor market effects of the business cycle.
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