National Bureau of Economic Research
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Economy Reached Trough in April 2020
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER, which maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs in economic activity in the United States, has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020, implying a two-month recession. The committee released a statement explaining the factors that contributed to this determination as well as a list of frequently asked questions related to the dating of business cycle peaks and troughs. For further information, please contact NBER's Director of Public Information, Charles A. Radin, or visit the Business Cycle Dating Committee page.
New Business Applications Surged during the Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to restructuring in some parts of the US economy. Many businesses have closed, particularly in hard-hit sectors like entertainment, hospitality, and transportation. At the same time, entrepreneurs have been launching new businesses. In mid-2020, several months into the pandemic, the number of business startups reached an all-time peak. In a new research paper (28912), NBER Research Associate John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland analyzes the Business Formation Statistics compiled by the US Census Bureau. He documents the sharp and sustained increase in new business registrations, and distinguishes between startups that are likely to hire employees and those that are not. Haltiwanger describes his findings in the video below, and explains that the surge in startups is a critical part of the reallocation of economic activity associated with the pandemic. An archive of NBER videos on pandemic-related research may be found here. An archive of NBER videos on pandemic-related research may be found here.
Two new working papers distributed this week report on the economic, health, and related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and public policies that respond to it. One presents evidence that social media advertisements by doctors and nurses, posted in late 2020, explaining the infection risks associated with holiday travel, reduced travel and subsequent infections (29021). The other tracks the incidence of anxiety and depression in the US population during the pandemic (29040).
More than 425 NBER working papers have addressed various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. View them in reverse chronological order or by topic area.
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Ten Researchers Receive Post-Doctoral Fellowships
Ten post-doctoral scholars will be supported by NBER fellowships for the 2021–22 academic year. These fellows are selected by review panels following widely disseminated calls for applications. Read More...
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Featured Working Papers
An information campaign in Denmark reduced infant mortality by 17.6 percent and saved between 11.5 and 14.5 lives per 10,000 births, according to research by Onur Altindag, Jane Greve, and Erdal Tekin.
Inequality in total wealth, the sum of financial and human wealth, rises much less than inequality in financial wealth when interest rates are unexpectedly low, and it may even decline at the highest wealth levels, Daniel L. Greenwald, Matteo Leombroni, Hanno Lustig, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh find.
LEED certification has no effect on average energy consumption in federal buildings, with the trade-offs across LEED attributes accounting for the absence of energy savings, according to a study by Karen Clay, Edson R. Severnini, and Xiaochen Sun.
Nonprosecution of nonviolent misdemeanor offenses is associated with large reductions in the likelihood of new criminal complaints against the offenders during the next two years, according to research by Amanda Y. Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Firms operating in countries where nonfinancial sectors hold comparatively more debt in foreign currency increase their leverage comparatively more after the home currency appreciates, and vice versa, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Ilhyock Shim, and Xiaoxi Liu find.
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