National Bureau of Economic Research

US inflation was relatively low and stable for three decades beginning in the 1990s. In sharp contrast, it has been relatively high since 2021. Many factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, expansionary fiscal policy, and loose monetary policy, have been cited as potential contributors to the recent inflation surge. In Oil Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation Surges (NBER Working Paper 31263), Luca Gagliardone and Mark Gertler suggest that a combination of oil price shocks and easy monetary policy have been critical to the size and…

The NBER is launching a new Economics of Health Program that merges its existing programs in health care and health economics. For nearly three decades, two NBER programs have studied issues related to health and health care. The Health Economics Program, which was launched in the early 1970s, focused on the economic determinants of health capital and analyzed individual behaviors such as smoking and substance abuse that affect it. The Health Care Program, created in 1994, emphasized research on the delivery of health care by medical professionals and hospitals, and also explored the role of public and private insurance in covering the cost of this care.

In recent years, a rising share of the affiliates in each of these programs has been involved in cross-cutting research that addresses topics that historically might have…

The International Trade and Investment (ITI) Program holds three regular meetings annually, in winter, spring, and at the NBER Summer Institute. The ITI Program has 85 research associates, 11 faculty research fellows, two research economists, and 34 members with primary affiliations in other NBER programs, making a total of 132 members. Research within the group covers a wide range of topics, such as explaining patterns of international trade and foreign direct investment, understanding the impact of trade policies, and examining the spatial distribution of economic activity within countries.

The regular meetings are often complemented with specialized conferences. In recent years, these have included...

The NBER has awarded five fellowships to enable economic statisticians working in government statistical agencies and international organizations to attend the Conference on Research on Income and Wealth (CRIW) meeting to be held July 17-18 2023 in Cambridge, MA. The meeting will be part of the NBER Summer Institute. 

The CRIW was founded in 1936 by Simon Kuznets to promote research and implementation of economic measurement. Its meetings provide opportunities for academic, government, and business economists to explore the latest developments in this field.

The fellowship program celebrates the intellectual legacy of long-time CRIW member and University of Pennsylvania professor Robert Summers, who pioneered the study of international price and output comparisons. Along with his colleagues Alan Heston and…

For American workers anticipating receiving Social Security retirement benefits, the solvency of the Social Security system is a relevant and pressing concern. The OASDI Social Security trust funds represent the accumulated surplus that remains from payroll tax income paid into the system by current workers minus benefits paid out to current beneficiaries. Current projections are that the combined OASDI funds, including both Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (retirement) and DI (Disability Insurance) trust funds, will be depleted by 2035.

Communicating the implications of these projections is critical but prone to inducing misleading inferences. One common misperception is that Social Security benefits will cease to be paid once...

The number of adults worldwide who are overweight or obese is rising, with much of the increase driven by developing countries. Famine exposure at early ages is a contributing factor, and it is not clear whether such exposure transmits across generations. In Overweight Grandsons and Grandfathers’ Starvation Exposure (NBER Working Paper 30599), Dora Costa develops novel evidence on this issue by studying the grandchildren of Union Army veterans, some of whom were prisoners of war (POWs).

Prior to July 1863, most POWs in the US Civil War were immediately exchanged. For those in this group who survived to 1900, the average time in captivity was 16 days. Between July 1863 and July 1864 prisoner exchanges stopped; survivors’ time in captivity grew to an average of 231 days. After July 1864, exchanges resumed; time in captivity...

Startups have more incentive than incumbent firms to engage in potentially disruptive R&D because large, established firms have more to lose from the discovery of new technologies that replace traditional ways of doing things. With no existing operations, startups have nothing to lose and much to gain from disruptive innovation.

In Of Academics and Creative Destruction: Startup Advantage in the Process of Innovation (NBER Working Paper 30362), Julian Kolev, Alexis Haughey, Fiona Murray, and Scott Stern focus on patents that emerged from university-based research ecosystems. Innovative researchers often prefer the creative freedom...