National Bureau of Economic Research
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Economy Reached Trough in April 2020
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER, which maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs in economic activity in the United States, has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in April 2020. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020, implying a two-month recession. The committee released a statement explaining the factors that contributed to this determination as well as a list of frequently asked questions related to the dating of business cycle peaks and troughs. For further information, please contact NBER's Director of Public Information, Charles A. Radin, or visit the Business Cycle Dating Committee page.
New Business Applications Surged during the Pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to restructuring in some parts of the US economy. Many businesses have closed, particularly in hard-hit sectors like entertainment, hospitality, and transportation. At the same time, entrepreneurs have been launching new businesses. In mid-2020, several months into the pandemic, the number of business startups reached an all-time peak. In a new research paper (28912), NBER Research Associate John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland analyzes the Business Formation Statistics compiled by the US Census Bureau. He documents the sharp and sustained increase in new business registrations, and distinguishes between startups that are likely to hire employees and those that are not. Haltiwanger describes his findings in the video below, and explains that the surge in startups is a critical part of the reallocation of economic activity associated with the pandemic. An archive of NBER videos on pandemic-related research may be found here.
Two new working papers distributed this week report on the economic, health, and related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and public policies that respond to it. One presents evidence that social media advertisements by doctors and nurses, posted in late 2020, explaining the infection risks associated with holiday travel, reduced travel and subsequent infections (29021). The other tracks the incidence of anxiety and depression in the US population during the pandemic (29040).
More than 425 NBER working papers have addressed various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. View them in reverse chronological order or by topic area.
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Ten Researchers Receive Post-Doctoral Fellowships
Ten post-doctoral scholars will be supported by NBER fellowships for the 2021–22 academic year. These fellows are selected by review panels following widely disseminated calls for applications. Read More...
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Featured Working Papers
The 1883 Pendleton Act, which mandated exams for some government workers, improved employees' professional backgrounds and reduced turnover, but failed to improve cost-effectiveness in revenue collection and induced hiring in exempted positions, Diana Moreira and Santiago Pérez find.
A public works intervention in Côte d’Ivoire caused a contemporaneous shift toward wage jobs in the formal sector, higher earnings, and savings, but there was no lasting impact on employment and only a limited impact on earnings, Marianne Bertrand, Bruno Crépon, Alicia C. Marguerie, and Patrick Premand find.
Almost half of all job transitions flow from higher- to lower-productivity firms. Up-the-ladder flows are more likely for young, high-skilled workers, who make up the largest share of aggregate productivity change, according to Elias Albagli, Mario Canales, Chad Syverson, Matias Tapia, and Juan Wlasiuk.
The benefit-cost ratio of body-worn cameras for police officers is about 5:1, with roughly 25 percent of the estimated benefits accruing directly to government budgets, according to a study by Morgan C. Williams Jr., Nathan Weil, Elizabeth A. Rasich, Jens Ludwig, Hye Chang, and Sophia Egrari.
An information campaign in Denmark reduced infant mortality by 17.6 percent and saved between 11.5 and 14.5 lives per 10,000 births, according to research by Onur Altindag, Jane Greve, and Erdal Tekin.
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