Long-Term Mortality Effects of Pandemic-Related Unemployment

The COVID-19 pandemic, and the lock-down policies adopted in response to it, were associated with an increase in the US unemployment rate from 3.5 percent in February to 14.8 percent in April 2020. NBER Research Associate Francesco Bianchi of Duke University, in collaboration with Giada Bianchi of the Harvard Medical School and Dongho Song of Johns Hopkins University, has investigated the long-term mortality consequences of this elevated level of unemployment. Analyzing the historical relationship between the unemployment rate and subsequent mortality rates for various population sub-groups, the researchers estimate that the pandemic-related unemployment shock will raise mortality rates and reduce life expectancy by about 0.5 percent for the overall US population. Their findings, described in a recent working paper (28304), suggest that in the near term, the increase in mortality rates is likely to be most pronounced for African-Americans and women, although over the long term, mortality for white men will rise substantially. Francesco Bianchi summarizes these findings in the video below.

Four NBER working papers distributed this week investigate the economic and health consequences of COVID-19, or the impact of public policies that are designed to respond to the pandemic. One study presents international comparative evidence on the relationship between the severity of a nation’s lockdown, the loss in economic activity, and the decline in its stock market during the pandemic (28320). Another uses data from Africa to investigate the link between health knowledge about the way COVID-19 spreads and social distancing practices (28316). A third examines the extent to which loans from the Paycheck Protection Program and other pandemic support initiatives reached minority communities (28321). The final study analyzes R&D policy design in a time of crisis, placing the vaccine development initiatives of the last year in historical context (28335).

More than 340 NBER working papers have addressed various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. View them in reverse chronological order or by topic area.