More than 300 NBER working papers have presented pandemic-related research. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed. 

Released on November 23, 2020

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Over the 21st century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downwards, notably...
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We analyze the tone of COVID-19 related English-language news articles written since January 1, 2020. Ninety one...
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It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of...
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The $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides highly subsidized financing to small businesses. The PPP...
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This paper evaluates the extent to which the world economy has entered a phase of de-globalisation, and it offers some...
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Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of...
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We provide an estimate of the value of a cure using the joint behavior of stock prices and a vaccine progress...
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The COVID-19 pandemic has forced federal, state and local policymakers to respond by legislating, enacting, and...
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We combined smartphone mobility data with census track-based reports of positive case counts to study a coronavirus...
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Contact tracing for COVID-19 is especially challenging because transmission often occurs in the absence of symptoms...

Released on November 16, 2020

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In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial...
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In the financial crisis and recession induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, many investment-grade firms became unable to...
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Starting from the assumption that improving well-being is the central consideration for public policies, we show how...
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This paper presents a simple price-theory approach to Covid-19 lockdown and reopening policy. The key idea is to...
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Vaccines exert a positive externality, reducing spread of disease from the consumer to others, providing a rationale...
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We report on the state of the labor market six months into the COVID recession, focusing particularly on measuring...
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This paper studies how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected labor demand using over 100 million posted jobs on one of...

Released on November 9, 2020

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Around the world, policymakers and news reports have warned that domestic violence (DV) could increase as a result of...
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Due to COVID-19, 33 states banned elective medical procedures, and 13 of these states included surgical abortions. We...

Released on November 2, 2020

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We assess the complicated reality of monetary policy transmission through mortgage markets by synthesizing the...
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We document trends in affective polarization during the coronavirus pandemic. In our main measure, affective...
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Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy...
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We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We...
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We use standardized end-of-course knowledge assessments to examine student learning during the disruptions induced by...
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This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for...
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The COVID-19 pandemic in the US has been particularly devastating for nursing home residents. A key question is how...

Released on October 26, 2020

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This paper combines data on GDP, unemployment, and Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths...
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We examine how exposure of Chinese firms to the Covid-19 shock varied with a cluster index (measuring spatial...
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The long-run costs and benefits of social insurance expansions may not be realized until a program has been in place...
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This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative...
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We study how people react to small probability events with large negative consequences using the outbreak of the COVID...

Released on October 19, 2020

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Why did banks experience massive deposit inflows during the first months of the pandemic? Using weekly branch-level...
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We provide new evidence on the drivers of the early US coronavirus pandemic. We combine an epidemiological model of...
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We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their...
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The respect for and protection of civil liberties are one of the fundamental roles of the state, and many consider...

Released on October 12, 2020

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We examine trends in employment, earnings, and incomes over the last two decades in the United States, and how the...
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This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to...
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This paper characterizes the implications of risk-on/risk-off shocks for emerging market capital flows and returns. We...
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We quantify the effect of market disruptions due to COVID-19 on the lives of households in rural areas of Liberia and...
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This paper documents an increase in residential electricity consumption while industrial and commercial consumption...
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Thinking beyond Covid-19, there is a growing interest in what economic structures will be needed to face ongoing...
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Using loan-level data covering two-thirds of all corporate loans from U.S. banks, we document that SMEs (i) obtain...

Released on October 5, 2020

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We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for...
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We develop a tractable model of strategic debt renegotiation in which businesses are sequentially interconnected...
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Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they desire to work but are not working. The unemployed population...
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We survey more than 200 private equity (PE) managers from firms with $1.9 trillion of assets under management (AUM)...
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We estimate the impact of mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in...
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Comparing median outcomes to gauge treatment effectiveness is widespread practice in clinical and other investigations...
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The COVID-19 pandemic spawned a global liquidity crisis in March 2020. The global liquidity crisis was alleviated by...
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This case study compares the importance of prevailing market factors against COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in...
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This paper investigates how economic downturns affect the flow of human capital to startups. Using proprietary data...
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Shutting down the workplace is an effective means of reducing contagion, but can incur large economic losses. We...

Released on September 28, 2020

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We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in...
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To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses to past...
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Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the...
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Small retail investors at the Robinhood (RH) retail brokerage firm from 2018 to 2020 shared with Finnish and larger US...
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In June 2020, we surveyed 2,516 Americans regarding their preferences for both short- and long-term expansions to...
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This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of...

Released on September 21, 2020

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We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn...
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We estimate a model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. An unexpected pandemic lowers current earnings...
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We analyze a large-scale survey of owners, managers, and employees of small businesses in the United States to...
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We develop a model of human interaction to analyze the relationship between globalization and pandemics. Our framework...
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We outline a macro-pandemic model where individuals can select into working from home or in the market. Market work...

Released on September 14, 2020

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How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a...
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We evaluate the efficacy of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), a program designed to stabilize...
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Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are...
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A major focus of debate about rationing guidelines for COVID-19 vaccines is whether and how to prioritize access for...

Released on September 7, 2020

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The COVID-19 pandemic presents a challenge for stabilization policy that is different from those resulting from either...
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Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the long-term impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on...
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Rugged individualism—the combination of individualism and anti-statism—is a prominent feature of American culture with...
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The most commonly used test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 is a PCR test that is able to detect very low viral loads...
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What explains stock market behavior in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic? Estimates from a dynamic asset...
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The surprise economic shutdown due to COVID-19 caused a sharp improvement in urban air quality in many previously...
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Identifying essential and frontline workers and understanding their characteristics is useful for policymakers and...
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COVID symptom screening, a new workplace practice, is likely to affect many millions of American workers in the coming...
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We provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-offs between health outcomes and the distribution of economic outcomes...
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The COVID-19 crisis has led to spiking unemployment rates with disproportionate impacts on low-income families. School...

Released on August 31, 2020

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Intercollegiate amateur athletics in the US largely bars student-athletes from sharing in any of the profits generated...
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We develop an ECON-EPI network model to evaluate policies designed to improve health and economic outcomes during a...
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Social policy to limit interactions can slow the spread of infection, but this benefit comes at the cost of reduced...
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We examine the effectiveness of forward guidance at the effective lower bound (ELB) in the context of the COVID-19...
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This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and respiratory health for remote workers (i.e....
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We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late 20th century....
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Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of...

Released on August 24, 2020

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We analyze optimal monetary policy when asset prices influence aggregate demand with a lag (as is well documented). In...
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We document four facts about the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide relevant for those studying the impact of non-...
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I generalize the "noisy search" model of Burdett and Judd (1983) to settings where individual buyers have preferences...
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The CARES Act resulted in many unemployed workers receiving benefits that exceeded wages at their previous job. Given...
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This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the...

Released on August 17, 2020

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COVID-19 has led to an abrupt change in time spent at home, with many cities and states implementing official stay-at-...
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This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular...
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We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks...
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Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES...
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India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of...
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Countries are using macroprudential tools more actively with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader...
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This paper demonstrates that it is possible to construct accurate pictures of firm revenue, growth, geographic...

Released on August 10, 2020

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Policymakers, faced with different options for replacing lost earnings, have had limited evidence to inform their...
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We use Norwegian administrative data and applications for emergency government support to simulate magnitude and...
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We...
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New technology promises to expand the supply of financial services to borrowers poorly served by the banking system....
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In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men than for women. Yet, in the current recession...

Released on August 3, 2020

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Data on firm-loan-level daily credit line drawdowns in the United States expose a corporate “dash for cash” induced by...
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Recent studies demonstrate that air quality improved during the coronavirus pandemic due to the imposition of social...
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Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and...
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We explore the impact of COVID-19 on employee's digital communication patterns through an event study of lockdowns in...
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We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from...
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We use U.S. household-level bank account data to investigate the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on spending and...
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The U.S. health care system has experienced great pressure since early March 2020 as it pivoted to providing necessary...
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The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) aimed to quickly deliver hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to small...
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The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to...
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Using unique City of Oakland data during COVID-19, we document that small business survival capabilities vary by firm...
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This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics....

Released on July 27, 2020

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We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic...
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As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand...
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To assess age-specific infection fatality rates (IFRs) for COVID-19, we have conducted a systematic review of...

Released on July 20, 2020

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Not much is obvious about how socioeconomic inequalities impact the spread of infectious diseases once one considers...
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The coronavirus has created an enormous—and expensive—challenge for elementary and secondary schools, while...
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We present a comprehensive analysis of the performance and flows of U.S. actively-managed equity mutual funds during...
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We use high frequency internet search data to study in real time how US households sought out online learning...
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In the decade following the financial crisis of 2008, investment funds in corporate bond markets became prominent...
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Tracking human activity in real time and at fine spatial scale is particularly valuable during episodes such as the...
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Violence against women is a problem worldwide, with economic costs ranging from 1-4% of global GDP. Using variation in...
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We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment....

Released on July 13, 2020

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COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs, as employers invest in technology to adapt the production process to...
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The outbreak of COVID-19 has called for swift action by governments, often involving the adoption of restrictive...
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COVID-19 has created a dual set of stresses on health care systems worldwide: a rise in expensive intensive care...
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How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities,...
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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deems large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “...
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In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, international testing efforts tended to target individuals whose...
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We examine the role of state and local policies to encourage social distancing, including stay at home orders, public...

Released on July 6, 2020

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Group testing increases efficiency by pooling patient specimens and clearing the entire group with one negative test....
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As countries around the world grapple with Covid-19, their economies are grinding to a halt. For the first time since...
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Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter...
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We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking...
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We study the effects of testing policy on voluntary social distancing and the spread of an infection. Agents decide...
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A central question for understanding behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective...
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Mandated shutdowns of nonessential businesses during the COVID-19 crisis brought into sharp relief the tradeoff...

Released on June 29, 2020

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The threat of COVID-19 has increased the health risks of going to an office or factory, leading more workers to do...
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We assess the Covid-19 pandemic’s implications for state government sales and income tax revenues. We estimate that...
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We investigate how the coronavirus pandemic affected the demand for online food shopping services using data from the...
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We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does...
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We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized...
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The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that...
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We analyze the behavior of 401(k) plan participants during the first quarter of 2020, when COVID-19 generated historic...
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The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise from changes in behavior long after the immediate...
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We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical...
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We summarize some of the early effects and discuss possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on...
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We compare the importance of market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining...

Released on June 22, 2020

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We analyze the effectiveness of preventive investments aimed at increasing agents' life expectancy, with a focus on...
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Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal...
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We use data from the aggregate stock market and dividend futures to quantify how investors’ expectations about...
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We correlate county-level COVID-19 death rates with key variables using both linear regression and negative binomial...
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In order to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on higher education, we surveyed approximately 1,500...
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Since social distancing is the primary strategy for slowing the spread of many diseases, understanding why U.S....
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What political legacy can we expect from the Coronavirus pandemic? Drawing evidence from past epidemics, we find that...
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This note seeks the socioeconomic roots of racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality, using county-level mortality,...
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Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests have brought a new wave...
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In sharp contrast to most previous crisis episodes, the Treasury market experienced severe stress and illiquidity...
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Media outlets often present diverging, even conflicting, perspectives on reality — not only informing, but potentially...

Released on June 15, 2020

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We report the results of a nationally-representative sample of the US population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The...
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The Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in consumer expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the...
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We study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of the...
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Using original data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight OECD countries (N = 21,649...
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Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs...
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How quickly will American businesses reopen after COVID-19 lockdowns end? We use a nationwide survey of small...
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We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with...
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This paper provides a quick survey of results on the classic SIR model and variants allowing for heterogeneity in...
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We develop a heterogeneous-agents network-based model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak,...
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Disease spread is in part a function of individual behavior. We examine the factors predicting individual behavior...

Released on June 8, 2020

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During a pandemic, an individual's choices can determine outcomes not only for the individual but also for the entire...
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As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, researchers are reporting findings of randomized trials comparing standard care...
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This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of vulnerability to severe com-plications from COVID...
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The Federal Reserve has reacted swiftly to the COVID-19 pandemic. It has resuscitated many of its programs from the...
  • Working Paper
Social distancing restrictions and demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter many small businesses, but...
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I use Current Population Survey Data from February and April 2020 to examine how individual workers have transitioned...
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The success of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain pandemics often depends greatly upon voluntary compliance...
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Both the White House and state governors have explicitly linked thresholds of reduced COVID-19 case growth to the...
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We analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We consider a wide range of correlates -...
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We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with Covid-19 across firms and workers. To do so, we exploit...
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This paper presents a procedure for estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 using a structural SIR...
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Amid the COVID-19 outbreak and related expected economic downturn, many developed and emerging market central banks...
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This note develops a framework for thinking about the following question: What is the maximum amount of consumption...

Released on June 1, 2020

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In March of 2020, banks faced the largest increase in liquidity demands ever observed. Firms drew funds on a massive...
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In the wake of the global pandemic known as COVID-19, retirees, along with those hoping to retire someday, have been...
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Unlike most countries, Korea did not implement a lockdown in its battle against COVID-19, instead successfully relying...
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We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020...
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This paper quantitatively analyzes how policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic should differ in developing countries...
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The COVID-19 epidemic in emerging markets risks a combined health, economic, and debt crisis. We integrate a standard...
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Voluntary social distancing plays a vital role in containing the spread of the disease during a pandemic. As a public...
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This paper examines the impact of the social distancing policies states adopted between March and April of 2020 in...
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We study the effects of negative supply shocks and shocks to the composition of final demand on aggregate output in a...
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We provide an interim report on the Indian lockdown provoked by the covid-19 pandemic. The main topics — ranging from...
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We examine how policymakers should react to a pandemic when there is significant uncertainty regarding key parameters...

Released on May 25, 2020

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We propose an index of the adequacy of home environments for protection (HEP) from COVID-19, and we compare our index...
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The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded...
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Big data on job-vacancy postings reveal several dimensions of the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. job market. Firms...
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Recent outbreaks of infectious pathogens such as Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19 have underscored the need for the...
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We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s unemployment insurance (UI) system to compute...
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We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an...
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South Korea publicly disclosed detailed location information of individuals that tested positive for COVID-19. We...
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We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth for 64 countries. We...
  • Working Paper
COVID-19 antibody tests have imperfect accuracy. There has been lack of clarity on the meaning of reported rates of...
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We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is...
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One of the most common policy prescriptions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 has been to legally enforce social...
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We develop a simple dynamic economic model of epidemic transmission designed to be consistent with widely used SIR...
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This study quantifies the effect of state reopening policies on daily mobility, travel, and mixing behavior during the...
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This short note constructs Mobility Zones to facilitate the discussion on the geographic extent of individual mobility...
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We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations...
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Globalization is expected to be reversed, at least partially, in the post pandemic era. The Great Financial Recession...
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Employment rates in the United States fell dramatically between February 2020 and April 2020 as the repercussions of...
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We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of...
  • Working Paper
Little is known about individual beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Still less is known about...
  • Working Paper
COVID-19 abruptly impacted the labor market with the unemployment rate jumping to 14.7 percent less than two months...
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We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/...

Released on May 18, 2020

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Millions of goods and services are now unavailable in many countries due to the current coronavirus pandemic,...
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We study supply and demand shocks in a general disaggregated model with multiple sectors, multiple factors, input-...
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Using weekly administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the evolution of...
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We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future...
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We critically analyze the currently available status indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic so that state governors will...
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We study disruptions in debt markets during the COVID-19 crisis. The safer end of the credit spectrum experienced...
  • Working Paper
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a...
  • Working Paper
In the midst of epidemics such as COVID-19, therapeutic candidates are unlikely to be able to complete the usual...
  • Working Paper
A key driver in biopharmaceutical investment decisions is the probability of success of a drug development program. We...
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Key factors in modeling a pandemic and guiding policy-making include mortality rates associated with infections; the...
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On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due...

Released on May 11, 2020

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Much of the economics literature on epidemics assumes that people know their current health state. Under this...
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We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the...
  • Working Paper
Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19...
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The COVID pandemic found policymakers facing constraints on their ability to react to an exceptionally large negative...
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Covid-19 is the single largest threat to global public health since the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20. Was the...
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This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. Our...
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I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the...
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Social distancing via shelter-in-place strategies has emerged as the most effective way to combat Covid-19. In the...
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The relationship between population health and measures of economic well-being and economic activity is a long...
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We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states...
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Using real-time register data we document the magnitude, dynamics and socio-economic characteristics of the crisis-...
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We make several contributions to understanding the socio-demographic ramifications of the COVID-19 epidemic and policy...
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In SIR models, infection rates are typically exogenous, whereas individuals adjust their behavior in reality. City-...
  • Working Paper
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in...
  • Working Paper
Drawing on firm-level expectations at a one-year forecast horizon in the Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), we...
  • Working Paper
We study the effects of the temporary federal paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on ‘social...
  • Working Paper
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and...
  • Working Paper
COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) therapy is currently a leading treatment for COVID-19. At present, there is a...

Released on May 4, 2020

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What are the characteristics of workers in jobs likely to be initially affected by broad social distancing and later...
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Reductions in ambient pollution have been taken as an indisputable "silver lining" to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Indeed,...
  • Working Paper
Shelter in place orders (SIPOs) require residents to remain home for all but essential activities such as purchasing...
  • Working Paper
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck...
  • Working Paper
The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze house-holds’ spending responses using high-...
  • Working Paper
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) like “stay-at-home” orders on the spread of...
  • Working Paper
We construct a quantitative model of an economy hit by an epidemic. People differ by age and skill, and choose...
  • Working Paper
We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary...

Released on April 27, 2020

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This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local...
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We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a...
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This paper considers a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic that allows...
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This paper seeks to answer the simple question of what category of retail outlets generates the most physical...
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In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe aggregate demand contractions...
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To slow COVID-19, many countries have shut down part of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from...
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In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act...
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A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard...
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Using data on over 6,000 firms across 56 economies during the first quarter of 2020, we evaluate the connection...
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We develop a quantitative framework for exploring how individuals trade off the utility benefit of social activity...
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The “shutdown” economy of April 2020 is compared to a normally functioning economy both in terms of market and...
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We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as unemployment insurance (UI)...
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This paper studies optimal lockdown policies in a dynamic economy without government commitment. A lockdown imposes a...
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This paper analyzes a sequential approach to lifting interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic taking heterogeneity in...

Released on April 20, 2020

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On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-33-20 2020, which required all residents...
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This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that have been...
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Even when, objectively speaking, death is on the line, partisan bias still colors beliefs about facts. We show that a...
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We analyze the externalities that arise when social and economic interactions transmit infectious diseases such as...
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We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are...
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Using the 2012-13 American Time Use Survey, I find that both who people spend time with and how they spend it affect...
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Motivated by reports in the media suggesting unequal access to Covid-19 testing across incomes, we analyze zip-code...
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The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this...
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New York City’s multipronged subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of...
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As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population...

Released on April 13, 2020

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We study partisan differences in Americans’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on...
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Rationing of medical resources is a critical issue in the COVID-19 pandemic. Most existing triage protocols are based...
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New York City is the hot spot of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This paper merges information on the...
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This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with...
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To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate...
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We introduce a new word pattern-based method to automatically classify firms’ primary concerns related to the spread...
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We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing...
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This paper measures the role of the diffusion of high-speed Internet on an individual's ability to self-isolate during...
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Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the...
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We study the response of an economy to an unexpected epidemic. Households mitigate the spread of the disease by...
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The outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly disrupted the economy. This paper attempts to quantify the macroeconomic...
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In addition to its impact on public health, COVID-19 has had a major impact on the economy. To shed light on how COVID...
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We use aggregated data from Facebook to show that COVID-19 was more likely to spread between regions with stronger...

Released on April 6, 2020

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New York City has been rightly characterized as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Just...
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We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the...
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We analyze the repercussions of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on demographic measures, human capital formation, and...
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What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study...
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No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the...
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The economic downturn caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak has substantial implications for gender equality, both...
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Evaluating the economic impact of "social distancing" measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a...
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We explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to...
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We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time....

Released on March 30, 2020

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We extend the baseline Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) infectious disease epidemiology model to...
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This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target...
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We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three critical points in the COVID-19 pandemic, to test...

Released on March 23, 2020

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Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for...
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This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United...
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We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our...