More than 400 NBER working papers have presented pandemic-related research. These papers are open access and have been collected for easy reference. Like all NBER papers, they are circulated for discussion and comment, and have not been peer-reviewed.
Released on June 7, 2021
Food manufacturing and processing is an important link between agricultural producers and consumers in the...
Many models from epidemiology are not designed to capture tradeoffs between health and economic well-being and few are...
Released on June 1, 2021
Corporate bond markets proved remarkably resilient against a sharp contraction caused by the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic....
We use a UK employer-employee administrative earnings dataset to investigate the response of earnings and hours to...
COVID-19 relief legislation offers a unique setting to study how political representation shapes the distribution of...
Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real...
Released on May 24, 2021
Leveraging data from eight U.S. states from the Startup Cartography Project, this paper provides new insight into the...
Government transfer programs to distribute food, water, or electricity at low or no cost have been widespread during...
As countries transition from facing COVID-19 vaccine supply shortfalls to requiring novel strategies to facilitate...
We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market...
Released on May 17, 2021
An emerging literature documents the many challenges faced by college students during the COVID-19 pandemic. Little is...
During the first four months of 2021, the United States distributed approximately 250 million doses of COVID-19...
Released on May 10, 2021
This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities....
We provide a non-parametric characterization of how welfare responds to changes in budget and production possibility...
I use a model of private and public behavior to mitigate disease transmission during the COVID pandemic over the past...
Released on May 3, 2021
We evaluate a large-scale set of interventions to increase demand for immunization in Haryana, India. The policies...
COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home (WFH). We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple...
A randomized-trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh during COVID-19 shows that the intervention...
Were workers more likely to be infected by COVID-19 in their workplace, or outside it? While both economic models of...
We analyze data from a survey we administered during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the relationship between...
Released on April 26, 2021
Domestic mobility restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 are widespread in developing countries, and have...
What are the effects of a temporary lockdown of the economy? Do firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market...
Enrollment increased slightly at both the California State University and University of California systems in fall...
Released on April 12, 2021
Can informing people of high community support for social distancing encourage them to do more of it? In theory, the...
We analyze the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and local government finances, with an emphasis on health...
We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases...
Released on April 5, 2021
This paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported...
We examine the impact of the global recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic on women's versus men's employment....
The advent of a pandemic is an exogenous shock, but the dynamics of contagion are very much endogenous --and depend on...
Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19....
Released on March 29, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries to make difficult ethical choices, e.g., how to balance public health and...
We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation and causality assessment in epidemiological models. The key to...
The health costs of in-person schooling during the pandemic, if any, fall primarily on the families of students,...
Released on March 22, 2021
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) increased US unemployment benefits...
Social distancing via shelter-in-place strategies, and wearing masks, have emerged as the most effective non-...
Facing acute strains in the offshore dollar funding markets during the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve (Fed)...
The decades-long effort to produce a workable HIV vaccine has hardly been a waste of public and private resources. To...
Digital technologies may make some tasks, jobs and firms more resilient to unanticipated shocks. We extract data from...
We experimentally vary signals and senders to identify which combination will increase vaccine demand among a...
Released on March 15, 2021
We study the crash of bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find evidence consistent with a “credit line...
Released on March 8, 2021
Calls for eliminating prioritization for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are growing amid concerns that prioritization reduces...
A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and...
This paper studies the impacts of work-from-home (WFH) in the housing market from both intercity and intracity...
SARS-CoV-2 has had a greater burden, as measured by rate of infection, in poorer communities within cities. For...
Released on March 1, 2021
Using a survey of AFA members, we analyze how demographics, time allocation, production mechanisms, and institutional...
The economic crisis associated with the emergence of the novel corona virus is unlike standard recessions. Demand for...
The college experience involves much more than credit hours and degrees. Students likely derive utility from in-person...
Released on February 22, 2021
This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the...
How people form beliefs is crucial for understanding decision-making under uncertainty. This is particularly true in a...
Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the...
Released on February 15, 2021
On January 6, 2021, the U.S. Capitol was sieged by rioters protesting certification of Joseph R. Biden’s election as...
The decision about how and when to open schools to in-person instruction has been a key question for policymakers...
We study the impact of widespread adoption of work-from-home (WFH) technology using an equilibrium model where people...
The expiration of the temporary $600 boost to weekly UI benefits under the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation...
Released on February 8, 2021
I present a behavioral epidemiological model of the evolution of the COVID epidemic in the United States and the...
How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the Covid-19 Recession
For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the...
This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach...
Vaccination against infectious disease may be beneficial to reduce illness in vaccinated persons and disease...
Released on February 1, 2021
COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the CPS, for example,...
This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies...
This paper uses monthly zip code-level data on electricity disconnections to document the socioeconomic correlates of...
Released on January 25, 2021
We use survey data on an opt-in panel of around 2,500 US small businesses to assess the impact of COVID-19. We find a...
The Covid-19 crisis is an unusual and seemingly all-encompassing economic shock. On the one hand, it was...
The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent countermeasures, such as school closures, the shift to...
We experimentally study individuals’ perceptions about and advice to others regarding retirement savings and...
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, many localities instituted non-essential business closure orders, keeping...
There is a widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global income inequality, reducing per capita...
The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated the adoption of a number of policies that aim to reduce the spread of the...
COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines...
Released on January 18, 2021
Post WWII globalization forces are facing headwinds in the form of global crises-the “The Great Recession” and the “...
The destructive economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was distributed unequally across the population. Gender, race...
We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of...
We follow a representative panel of US borrowers to study the suspension of household debt payments (debt forbearance...
Released on January 11, 2021
Providing health information is a non-pharmaceutical intervention designed to reduce disease transmission and...
Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February to late May...
Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 shut down many small...
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers, researchers, and journalists have made comparisons to...
Released on January 4, 2021
The paper formalizes and tests the hypothesis that greater exposure to big shocks induces stronger societal responses...
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment...
Weekly mortality through October 3 is partitioned into normal deaths, COVID, and nonCOVID excess deaths (NCEDs)....
We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and...
From February to April 2020, as COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, the official unemployment rate (UR) climbed from 3.5...
In early August, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Israel disbursed one-time, universal grants to its citizens, of $...
Released on December 28, 2020
The response of entry and exit to adverse supply shocks, such as COVID-19, is amplified by nominal rigidities. This...
What are the effects of school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic on children's education? Online education is an...
Numerous government policies have attempted to keep workers out of the workplace, on the assumption that this will...
We formulate an economic time use model and add to it an epidemiological SIR block. In the event of an epidemic,...
We analyze bank supply of credit under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The literature emphasizes relationships...
Released on December 14, 2020
In this paper we survey the historical record for over two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal...
The extent to which K-12 schools should remain open is at the forefront of discussions on long-term pandemic...
Schools closed extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic and occur in other settings, such as teacher strikes and...
Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the US economy was closed to limit the virus’ spread, and several emergency...
I analyze efficient government interventions to mitigate financial distress during a severe macroeconomic downturn. At...
This paper summarizes economic research on investment in public infrastructure and introduces the findings of several...
Released on December 7, 2020
Advance market commitments (AMCs) provide a mechanism to stimulate investment by suppliers of products to low-income...
The profitability of life insurance offerings is contingent on accurate projections and pricing of mortality risk. The...
We analyze the role of international trade and health coordination in times of a pandemic by building a two-economy,...
In March 2020, the International Comparison Project published its latest results, for the calendar year 2017. This...
State and local governments throughout the United States attempted to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 using stay-at-...
Released on November 30, 2020
Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies...
Using detailed transaction-level data from financial accounts, this paper shows that the revenues of small businesses...
For much of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic upended social and economic life globally. In an effort to reduce COVID-19...
Released on November 23, 2020
Over the 21st century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downwards, notably...
We analyze the tone of COVID-19 related English-language news articles written since January 1, 2020. Ninety one...
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of...
The $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides highly subsidized financing to small businesses. The PPP...
This paper evaluates the extent to which the world economy has entered a phase of de-globalisation, and it offers some...
Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of...
We provide an estimate of the value of a cure using the joint behavior of stock prices and a vaccine progress...
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced federal, state and local policymakers to respond by legislating, enacting, and...
We combined smartphone mobility data with census track-based reports of positive case counts to study a coronavirus...
Contact tracing for COVID-19 is especially challenging because transmission often occurs in the absence of symptoms...
Released on November 16, 2020
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial...
In the financial crisis and recession induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, many investment-grade firms became unable to...
Starting from the assumption that improving well-being is the central consideration for public policies, we show how...
This paper presents a simple price-theory approach to Covid-19 lockdown and reopening policy. The key idea is to...
Vaccines exert a positive externality, reducing spread of disease from the consumer to others, providing a rationale...
We report on the state of the labor market midway through the COVID recession, focusing particularly on measuring...
This paper studies how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected labor demand using over 100 million posted jobs on one of...
Released on November 9, 2020
Around the world, policymakers and news reports have warned that domestic violence (DV) could increase as a result of...
Due to COVID-19, 33 states banned elective medical procedures, and 13 of these states included surgical abortions. We...
Released on November 2, 2020
We assess the complicated reality of monetary policy transmission through mortgage markets by synthesizing the...
We document trends in affective polarization during the coronavirus pandemic. In our main measure, affective...
Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy...
We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We...
We use standardized end-of-course knowledge assessments to examine student learning during the disruptions induced by...
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for...
The COVID-19 pandemic in the US has been particularly devastating for nursing home residents. A key question is how...
Released on October 26, 2020
This paper combines data on GDP, unemployment, and Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths...
We examine how exposure of Chinese firms to the Covid-19 shock varied with a cluster index (measuring spatial...
The long-run costs and benefits of social insurance expansions may not be realized until a program has been in place...
This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative...
We study how people react to small probability events with large negative consequences using the outbreak of the COVID...
Released on October 19, 2020
Why did banks experience massive deposit inflows during the first months of the pandemic? Using weekly branch-level...
We provide new evidence on the drivers of the early US coronavirus pandemic. We combine an epidemiological model of...
We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their...
Civil liberties are sometimes considered non-tradable and “sacred,” and their protection a hallmark of democracies....
Released on October 12, 2020
We examine trends in employment, earnings, and incomes over the last two decades in the United States, and how the...
This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to...
This paper characterizes the implications of risk-on/risk-off shocks for emerging market capital flows and returns. We...
We quantify the effect of market disruptions due to COVID-19 on the lives of households in rural areas of Liberia and...
This paper documents an increase in residential electricity consumption while industrial and commercial consumption...
Thinking beyond Covid-19, there is a growing interest in what economic structures will be needed to face ongoing...
We use supervisory loan-level data to document that small firms (SMEs) obtain shorter maturity credit lines than large...
Released on October 5, 2020
This paper documents two COVID-related risks, viral risk and employment risk, and their distributions across the...
We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for...
We develop a tractable model of strategic debt renegotiation in which businesses are sequentially interconnected...
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population...
We survey more than 200 private equity (PE) managers from firms with $1.9 trillion of assets under management (AUM)...
We estimate the impact of mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in...
Comparing median outcomes to gauge treatment effectiveness is widespread practice in clinical and other investigations...
The COVID-19 pandemic spawned a global liquidity crisis in March 2020. The global liquidity crisis was alleviated by...
Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving...
This paper investigates how economic downturns affect the flow of human capital to startups. Using proprietary data...
Shutting down the workplace is an effective means of reducing contagion, but can incur large economic losses. We...
Released on September 28, 2020
We estimate the impact of COVID-19 on business failures for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using firm-level...
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses to past...
Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the...
Robinhood (RH) investors collectively increased their holdings in the March 2020 COVID bear market, indicating an...
In June 2020, we surveyed 2,516 Americans regarding their preferences for both short- and long-term expansions to...
This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of...
Released on September 21, 2020
We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn...
We derive a parsimonious model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. Using measures of expected damage from...
We analyze a large-scale survey of owners, managers, and employees of small businesses in the United States to...
We develop a model of human interaction to analyze the relationship between globalization and pandemics. Our framework...
We outline a macro-pandemic model where individuals can select into working from home or in the market. Market work...
Released on September 14, 2020
How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a...
We evaluate the efficacy of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), a program designed to stabilize...
Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are...
A major focus of debate about rationing guidelines for COVID-19 vaccines is whether and how to prioritize access for...
Released on September 7, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic presents a challenge for stabilization policy that is different from those resulting from either...
Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the long-term impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on...
Rugged individualism—the combination of individualism and anti-statism—is a prominent feature of American culture with...
The most commonly used test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 is a PCR test that is able to detect very low viral loads...
What explains stock market behavior in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic? Estimates from a dynamic asset...
The surprise economic shutdown due to COVID-19 caused a sharp improvement in urban air quality in many previously...
Identifying essential and frontline workers and understanding their characteristics is useful for policymakers and...
COVID symptom screening, a new workplace practice, is likely to affect many millions of American workers in the coming...
We provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-offs between health outcomes and the distribution of economic outcomes...
The COVID-19 crisis has led to spiking unemployment rates with disproportionate impacts on low-income families. School...
Released on August 31, 2020
Intercollegiate amateur athletics in the US largely bars student-athletes from sharing in any of the profits generated...
We develop an ECON-EPI network model to evaluate policies designed to improve health and economic outcomes during a...
We analyze the impact of public health policy on the spread of a disease using a version of the SIR model that...
We examine the effectiveness of forward guidance at the effective lower bound (ELB) in the context of the COVID-19...
This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and respiratory health for remote workers (i.e....
We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late 20th century....
Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of...
Released on August 24, 2020
We analyze optimal monetary policy when asset prices influence aggregate demand with a lag (as is well documented). In...
We document four facts about the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide relevant for those studying the impact of non-...
I generalize the "noisy search" model of Burdett and Judd (1983) to settings where individual buyers have preferences...
The CARES Act resulted in many unemployed workers receiving benefits that exceeded wages at their previous job. Given...
This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the...
Released on August 17, 2020
COVID-19 has led to an abrupt change in time spent at home, with many cities and states implementing official stay-at-...
This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular...
We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks...
Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES...
India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of...
Countries are using macroprudential tools more actively with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader...
This paper demonstrates that it is possible to construct accurate pictures of firm revenue, growth, geographic...
Released on August 10, 2020
The current economic crisis has highlighted the need for data that are both timely and local so that the effects of...
We use Norwegian administrative data and applications for emergency government support to simulate magnitude and...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We...
New technology promises to expand the supply of financial services to small businesses poorly served by the banking...
In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men than for women. Yet, in the current recession...
Released on August 3, 2020
Data on firm-loan-level daily credit line drawdowns in the United States expose a corporate “dash for cash” induced by...
Recent studies demonstrate that air quality improved during the coronavirus pandemic due to the imposition of social...
Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and...
We explore the impact of COVID-19 on employee's digital communication patterns through an event study of lockdowns in...
We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from...
We use U.S. household-level bank account data to investigate the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on spending and...
The U.S. health care system has experienced great pressure since early March 2020 as it pivoted to providing necessary...
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) aimed to quickly deliver hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to small...
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to...
Using unique City of Oakland data during COVID-19, we document that small business survival capabilities vary by firm...
This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics....
Released on July 27, 2020
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic...
As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand...
To assess age-specific infection fatality rates (IFRs) for COVID-19, we have conducted a systematic review of...
Released on July 20, 2020
Managing the outbreak of COVID-19 in India constitutes an unprecedented health emergency in one of the largest and...
Not much is obvious about how socioeconomic inequalities impact the spread of infectious diseases once one considers...
The coronavirus has created an enormous—and expensive—challenge for elementary and secondary schools, while...
We present a comprehensive analysis of the performance and flows of U.S. actively-managed equity mutual funds during...
We use high frequency internet search data to study in real time how US households sought out online learning...
In the decade following the financial crisis of 2008, investment funds in corporate bond markets became prominent...
Tracking human activity in real time and at fine spatial scale is particularly valuable during episodes such as the...
Violence against women is a problem worldwide, with economic costs ranging from 1-4% of global GDP. Using variation in...
We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment....
Released on July 13, 2020
COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs, as employers invest in technology to adapt the production process to...
During health crises, like COVID-19, individuals are inundated with messages promoting health-preserving behavior....
The outbreak of COVID-19 has called for swift action by governments, often involving the adoption of restrictive...
COVID-19 has created a dual set of stresses on health care systems worldwide: a rise in expensive intensive care...
How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities,...
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deems large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “...
In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, international testing efforts tended to target individuals whose...
We examine the role of state and local policies to encourage social distancing, including stay at home orders, public...
Released on July 6, 2020
Group testing increases efficiency by pooling patient specimens and clearing the entire group with one negative test....
As countries around the world grapple with Covid-19, their economies are grinding to a halt. For the first time since...
Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter...
We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking...
We study the effects of testing policy on voluntary social distancing and the spread of an infection. Agents decide...
A central question for understanding behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective...
Mandated shutdowns of nonessential businesses during the COVID-19 crisis brought into sharp relief the tradeoff...
Released on June 29, 2020
In the early phases of the COVID-19 epidemic labor markets exhibited considerable churn, which we relate to three...
The threat of COVID-19 has increased the health risks of going to an office or factory, leading more workers to do...
We assess the Covid-19 pandemic’s implications for state government sales and income tax revenues. We estimate that...
We investigate how the coronavirus pandemic affected the demand for online food shopping services using data from the...
We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does...
We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized...
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that...
We analyze the behavior of 401(k) plan participants during the first quarter of 2020, when COVID-19 generated historic...
The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise from changes in behavior long after the immediate...
We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical...
We summarize some of the early effects and discuss possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on...
We compare the importance of market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining...
Released on June 22, 2020
We analyze the effectiveness of preventive investments aimed at increasing agents' life expectancy, with a focus on...
Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal...
We use data from the aggregate stock market and dividend futures to quantify how investors’ expectations about...
We correlate county-level COVID-19 death rates with key variables using both linear regression and negative binomial...
In order to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on higher education, we surveyed approximately 1,500...
Since social distancing is the primary strategy for slowing the spread of many diseases, understanding why U.S....
What political legacy is bequeathed by national health crises such as epidemics? We show that epidemic exposure in an...
This note seeks the socioeconomic roots of racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality, using county-level mortality,...
Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests brought a new...
In sharp contrast to most previous crisis episodes, the Treasury market experienced severe stress and illiquidity...
Media outlets often present diverging, even conflicting, perspectives on reality — not only informing, but potentially...
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied...
Released on June 15, 2020
We report the results of a nationally-representative sample of the US population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The...
The Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in consumer expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the...
We study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that the cost of...
Using original data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight OECD countries (N = 21,649...
Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that required...
We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with...
This paper provides a quick survey of results on the classic SIR model and variants allowing for heterogeneity in...
We develop a heterogeneous-agents network-based model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak,...
Disease spread is in part a function of individual behavior. We examine the factors predicting individual behavior...
Released on June 8, 2020
During a pandemic, an individual's choices can determine outcomes not only for the individual but also for the entire...
As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, researchers are reporting findings of randomized trials comparing standard care...
This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of vulnerability to severe com-plications from COVID...
The Federal Reserve has reacted swiftly to the COVID-19 pandemic. It has resuscitated many of its programs from the...
Social distancing restrictions and demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter many small businesses, but...
I use Current Population Survey Data from February and April 2020 to examine how individual workers have transitioned...
The success of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain pandemics often depends greatly upon voluntary compliance...
Policymakers have explicitly linked sustained reductions in COVID-19 case growth to reopening policies, including the...
We analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We consider a wide range of correlates -...
We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with Covid-19 across firms and workers. To do so, we exploit...
This paper presents a procedure for estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 using a structural SIR...
This paper conducts an event study of 30 quantitative easing (QE) announcements made by 21 central banks on daily...
This note develops a framework for thinking about the following question: What is the maximum amount of consumption...
Released on June 1, 2020
In March of 2020, banks faced the largest increase in liquidity demands ever observed. Firms drew funds on a massive...
In the wake of the global pandemic known as COVID-19, retirees, along with those hoping to retire someday, have been...
Unlike most countries, Korea did not implement a lockdown in its battle against COVID-19, instead successfully relying...
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020...
This paper quantitatively analyzes how policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic should differ in developing countries...
The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted emerging markets by generating a large death toll, deep recessions, and...
Voluntary social distancing plays a vital role in containing the spread of the disease during a pandemic. As a public...
This paper examines the impact of the social distancing policies states adopted between March and April of 2020 in...
We study the effects of negative supply shocks and shocks to the composition of final demand on aggregate output in a...
We provide an interim report on the Indian lockdown provoked by the covid-19 pandemic. The main topics — ranging from...
We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty regarding key epidemiological parameters by embedding...
Released on May 25, 2020
We propose an index of the adequacy of home environments for protection (HEP) from COVID-19, and we compare our index...
The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded...
Big data on job-vacancy postings reveal several dimensions of the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. job market. Firms...
Recent outbreaks of infectious pathogens such as Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19 have underscored the need for the...
We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s unemployment insurance (UI) system to compute...
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an...
South Korea publicly disclosed detailed location information of individuals that tested positive for COVID-19. We...
We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector...
COVID-19 antibody tests have imperfect accuracy. There has been lack of clarity on the meaning of reported rates of...
We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is...
One of the most common policy prescriptions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 has been to legally enforce social...
We develop a simple dynamic economic model of epidemic transmission designed to be consistent with widely used SIR...
This study quantifies the effect of state reopening policies on daily mobility, travel, and mixing behavior during the...
This short note constructs Mobility Zones to facilitate the discussion on the geographic extent of individual mobility...
We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations...
Globalization is expected to be reversed, at least partially, in the post pandemic era. The Great Financial Recession...
Employment rates in the United States fell dramatically between February 2020 and April 2020 as the repercussions of...
We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of...
Little is known about individual beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Still less is known about...
COVID-19 abruptly impacted the labor market with the unemployment rate jumping to 14.7 percent less than two months...
We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/...
Released on May 18, 2020
Millions of goods and services are now unavailable in many countries due to the current coronavirus pandemic,...
We study supply and demand shocks in a disaggregated model with multiple sectors, multiple factors, input-output...
Using weekly administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the evolution of...
We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future...
We critically analyze the currently available status indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic so that state governors will...
We study disruptions in debt markets during the COVID-19 crisis. The safer end of the credit spectrum experienced...
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a...
In the midst of epidemics such as COVID-19, therapeutic candidates are unlikely to be able to complete the usual...
A key driver in biopharmaceutical investment decisions is the probability of success of a drug development program. We...
Key factors in modeling a pandemic and guiding policy-making include mortality rates associated with infections; the...
On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due...
Released on May 11, 2020
We develop a SIR-based macroeconomic model to study the impact of testing/quarantining and non-pharmaceutical...
We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the...
Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19...
The COVID pandemic found policymakers facing constraints on their ability to react to an exceptionally large negative...
Covid-19 is the single largest threat to global public health since the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20. Was the...
This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. Our...
I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the...
Social distancing via shelter-in-place strategies has emerged as the most effective way to combat Covid-19. In the...
The relationship between population health and measures of economic well-being and economic activity is a long...
We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states...
Using real-time register data we document the magnitude, dynamics and socio-economic characteristics of the crisis-...
We make several contributions to understanding the socio-demographic ramifications of the COVID-19 epidemic and policy...
Social interactions and social preferences play a central role in public health domains. In the face of a pandemic,...
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in...
Drawing on firm-level expectations at a one-year forecast horizon in the Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), we...
We study the effects of a massive temporary U.S. paid sick leave (PSL) mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020...
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and...
COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) therapy is currently a leading treatment for COVID-19. At present, there is a...
Released on May 4, 2020
We conducted a large-scale survey covering 58 countries and over 100,000 respondents between late March and early...
Using data from O∗NET, we construct two measures of an occupation’s potential exposure to social distancing measures...
Reductions in ambient pollution have been taken as an indisputable "silver lining" to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Indeed,...
Shelter in place orders (SIPOs) require residents to remain home for all but essential activities such as purchasing...
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck...
The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze house-holds’ spending responses using high-...
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) like “stay-at-home” orders on the spread of...
We construct a quantitative model of an economy hit by an epidemic. People differ by age and skill, and choose...
We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary...
Released on April 27, 2020
This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local...
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a...
This paper considers a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic that allows...
This paper seeks to answer the simple question of what category of retail outlets generates the most physical...
In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe asset price and aggregate demand...
To slow COVID-19, many countries have shut down part of the economy. Older individuals have the most to gain from...
In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act...
A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard...
Using data on over 6,000 firms across 56 economies during the first quarter of 2020, we evaluate the connection...
We develop a quantitative framework for exploring how individuals trade off the utility benefit of social activity...
The “shutdown” economy of April 2020 is compared to a normally functioning economy both in terms of market and...
We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as unemployment insurance (UI)...
This paper studies optimal lockdown policies in a dynamic economy without government commitment. A lockdown imposes a...
This paper analyzes a sequential approach to lifting interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic taking heterogeneity in...
Released on April 20, 2020
On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-33-20 2020, which required all residents...
This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that have been...
Even when, objectively speaking, death is on the line, partisan bias still colors beliefs about facts. We show that a...
We analyze the externalities that arise when social and economic interactions transmit infectious diseases such as...
We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are...
Using the 2012-13 American Time Use Survey, I find that both who people spend time with and how they spend it affect...
Motivated by reports in the media suggesting unequal access to Covid-19 testing across incomes, we analyze zip-code...
The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this...
New York City’s multipronged subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of...
As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population...
Released on April 13, 2020
We study partisan differences in Americans’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on...
Rationing of medical resources is a critical issue in the COVID-19 pandemic. Most existing triage protocols are based...
Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods
New York City is the hot spot of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This paper merges information on the...
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with...
To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate...
We introduce a new word pattern-based method to automatically classify firms’ primary concerns related to the spread...
We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing...
This paper measures the role of the diffusion of high-speed Internet on an individual's ability to self-isolate during...
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the...
We study the response of an economy to an unexpected epidemic. Households mitigate the spread of the disease by...
The outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly disrupted the economy. This paper attempts to quantify the macroeconomic...
In addition to its impact on public health, COVID-19 has had a major impact on the economy. To shed light on how COVID...
We use aggregated data from Facebook to show that COVID-19 was more likely to spread between regions with stronger...
Released on April 6, 2020
New York City has been rightly characterized as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Just...
We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the...
We analyze the repercussions of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on demographic measures, human capital formation, and...
What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study...
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the...
The economic downturn caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak has substantial implications for gender equality, both...
Evaluating the economic impact of "social distancing" measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a...
We explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to...
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time....
Released on March 30, 2020
We extend the baseline Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) infectious disease epidemiology model to...
This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target...
We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three critical points in the COVID-19 pandemic, to test...
Released on March 23, 2020
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for...
This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United...
We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our...
We analyze the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the United Kingdom using data derived from a large monthly firm...
We show that social network exposure to COVID-19 cases shapes individuals’ beliefs and behaviors concerning the...
We study how short-term labor markets responded to an extraordinary demand shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use...
The COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the last comparable U.S....
COVID-19 became a global health emergency when it threatened the catastrophic collapse of health systems as demand for...
This paper examines the future of remote work by drawing parallels between two contexts: The move from home to factory...