Treasury yields spiked during the initial phase of COVID. The 10-year yield increased by 64 bps from March 9 to 18,...
Conditional yield skewness is an important summary statistic of the state of the economy. It exhibits pronounced...
Corporate bond markets proved remarkably resilient against a sharp contraction caused by the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic....
We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market...
We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases...
Facing acute strains in the offshore dollar funding markets during the COVID-19 crisis, the Federal Reserve (Fed)...
We study the crash of bank stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find evidence consistent with a “credit line...
How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the Covid-19 Recession
For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the...
We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. We use the death rate to control for the impact of...
Stock prices and workplace mobility trace out striking clockwise paths in daily data from mid-February to late May...
The profitability of life insurance offerings is contingent on accurate projections and pricing of mortality risk. The...
We provide an estimate of the value of a cure using the joint behavior of stock prices and a vaccine progress...
Over the 21st century, and especially since 2014, global exchange rate volatility has been trending downwards, notably...
In the financial crisis and recession induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, many investment-grade firms became unable to...
We study how people react to small probability events with large negative consequences using the outbreak of the COVID...
Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving...
We develop a tractable model of strategic debt renegotiation in which businesses are sequentially interconnected...
Firm-level stock returns differ enormously in reaction to COVID-19 news. We characterize these reactions using the...
Robinhood (RH) investors collectively increased their holdings in the March 2020 COVID bear market, indicating an...
We derive a parsimonious model of damage to corporate earnings from COVID-19. Using measures of expected damage from...
We evaluate the efficacy of the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), a program designed to stabilize...
What explains stock market behavior in the early weeks of the coronavirus pandemic? Estimates from a dynamic asset...
We analyze optimal monetary policy when asset prices influence aggregate demand with a lag. In this environment, when...
In the decade following the financial crisis of 2008, investment funds in corporate bond markets became prominent...
We present a comprehensive analysis of the performance and flows of U.S. actively-managed equity mutual funds during...
We compare the importance of market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining...
Beyond its immediate impact on public health and the economy, the COVID-19 pandemic has put democracy under stress....
We study information substitutability in the financial market through a quasi-natural experiment: the pandemic-...
We estimate the impact of district-level schooling mode (in-person versus hybrid or distance learning) on test scores...
The United States is one of the few countries that does not guarantee paid family leave (PFL) to workers. Proposals...
We investigate the relationship between (a) official information on COVID-19 infection and death case counts; (b)...
Recent supply disruptions catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains (GSCs) to the top of policy agendas and...
We empirically investigate the impact of COVID-19 shutdowns on domestic violence using incident-level data on both...
In this paper, we review the growing literature on FinTech lending – the provision of credit facilitated by technology...
Using a structural life-cycle model and data on school visits from Safegraph and school closures from Burbio, we...
We estimate the likelihood of financial distress of U.S. hospitals in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic using AHA...
Covid-19 highlighted the weaknesses in the supply chain. Many have argued that a more resilient or robust supply chain...
The Covid-19 pandemic drastically disrupted the functioning of U.S. public schools, potentially changing the relative...
Will COVID-19 end the urban renaissance that many cities have experienced since the 1980s? This essay selectively...
We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer...
With the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020, small business lending through fintech lenders collapsed. We...
The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the Covid-19 pandemic...
Before the 2020-21 school year, educators, policymakers, and parents confronted the stark and uncertain trade-offs...
The COVID-19 pandemic brought the dual crises of disease and the containment policies designed to mitigate it. Yet,...
The pandemic has revived the longstanding debate about the effect of online versus face-to-face instruction on student...
Supply chains for many agricultural products have an hour-glass shape; in between a sizable number of farmers and...
About one-fifth of paid workdays will be supplied from home in the post-pandemic economy, and more than one-fourth on...
We analyze the behavior of 401(k) plan participants during the first quarter of 2020, when COVID-19 generated historic...
In sharp contrast to most previous crisis episodes, the Treasury market experienced severe stress and illiquidity...
We use data from the aggregate stock market and dividend futures to quantify how investors’ expectations about...
We ask whether epidemic exposure leads to a shift in financial technology usage within and across countries and if so...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to stark reductions in economic activity in India. We employ CMIE's Consumer Pyramids...
Applications for new businesses from the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly and weekly Business Formation Statistics (BFS)...
Food manufacturing and processing is an important link between agricultural producers and consumers in the...
Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real...
Leveraging data from eight U.S. states from the Startup Cartography Project, this paper provides new insight into the...
An emerging literature documents the many challenges faced by college students during the COVID-19 pandemic. Little is...
We characterize how welfare responds to changes in budget sets and technologies when preferences are non-homothetic or...
We analyze data from a survey we administered during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the relationship between...
Enrollment increased slightly at both the California State University and University of California systems in fall...
Digital technologies may make some tasks, jobs and firms more resilient to unanticipated shocks. We extract data from...
This paper studies the impacts of work-from-home (WFH) in the housing market from both intercity and intracity...
A large body of evidence documents a link between alcohol consumption and violence involving intimate partners and...
The college experience involves much more than credit hours and degrees. Students likely derive utility from in-person...
How people form beliefs is crucial for understanding decision-making under uncertainty. This is particularly true in a...
This paper uses monthly zip code-level data on electricity disconnections to document the socioeconomic correlates of...
This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies...
COVID-19 led to a massive shutdown of businesses in the second quarter of 2020. Estimates from the CPS, for example,...
We study liquidity conditions in the corporate bond market during the COVID-19 pandemic. We document that the cost of...
This paper conducts an event study of 30 quantitative easing (QE) announcements made by 21 central banks on daily...
We analyze how investor expectations about economic growth and stock returns changed during the February-March 2020...
The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated the adoption of a number of policies that aim to reduce the spread of the...
We experimentally study individuals’ perceptions about and advice to others regarding retirement savings and...
We use survey data on an opt-in panel of around 2,500 US small businesses to assess the impact of COVID-19. We find a...
We follow a representative panel of US borrowers to study the suspension of household debt payments (debt forbearance...
Providing health information is a non-pharmaceutical intervention designed to reduce disease transmission and...
In early August, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, Israel disbursed one-time, universal grants to its citizens, of $...
We analyze bank supply of credit under the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The literature emphasizes relationships...
What are the effects of school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic on children's education? Online education is an...
This paper examines the future of remote work by drawing parallels between two contexts: The move from home to factory...
In March of 2020, banks faced the largest increase in liquidity demands ever observed. Firms drew funds on a massive...
We study disruptions in debt markets during the COVID-19 crisis. The safer end of the credit spectrum experienced...
We analyze firm-level analyst forecasts during the COVID crisis. First, we describe expectations dynamics about future...
In this paper we: (i) provide a model of the endogenous risk intolerance and severe asset price and aggregate demand...
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict US stock returns, in real time....
No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the...
We show that social network exposure to COVID-19 cases shapes individuals’ beliefs and behaviors concerning the...
Productivity is a key determinant of the sustainability of the public finances. While the initial impact of Covid-19...
This paper summarizes economic research on investment in public infrastructure and introduces the findings of several...
I analyze efficient government interventions to mitigate financial distress during a severe macroeconomic downturn. At...
Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, much of the US economy was closed to limit the virus’ spread, and several emergency...
Schools closed extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic and occur in other settings, such as teacher strikes and...
In March 2020, the International Comparison Project published its latest results, for the calendar year 2017. This...
Using detailed transaction-level data from financial accounts, this paper shows that the revenues of small businesses...
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced federal, state and local policymakers to respond by legislating, enacting, and...
This paper evaluates the extent to which the world economy has entered a phase of de-globalisation, and it offers some...
The $669 billion Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provides highly subsidized financing to small businesses. The PPP...
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial...
Due to COVID-19, 33 states banned elective medical procedures, and 13 of these states included surgical abortions. We...
Around the world, policymakers and news reports have warned that domestic violence (DV) could increase as a result of...
We use standardized end-of-course knowledge assessments to examine student learning during the disruptions induced by...
The COVID-19 pandemic in the US has been particularly devastating for nursing home residents. A key question is how...
We examine how exposure of Chinese firms to the Covid-19 shock varied with a cluster index (measuring spatial...
We study how people react to small probability events with large negative consequences using the outbreak of the COVID...
Why did banks experience massive deposit inflows during the first months of the pandemic? Using weekly branch-level...
We use supervisory loan-level data to document that small firms (SMEs) obtain shorter maturity credit lines than large...
This paper documents an increase in residential electricity consumption while industrial and commercial consumption...
We quantify the effect of market disruptions due to COVID-19 on the lives of households in rural areas of Liberia and...
We examine trends in employment, earnings, and incomes over the last two decades in the United States, and how the...
Using proprietary data from AngelList Talent, we study how individuals’ job search and application behavior changed...
We survey more than 200 private equity (PE) managers from firms with $1.9 trillion of assets under management (AUM)...
We estimate the impact of COVID-19 on business failures for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using firm-level...
To predict the effects of the 2020 U.S. CARES Act on consumption, we extend a model that matches responses to past...
We analyze a large-scale survey of owners, managers, and employees of small businesses in the United States to...
We survey over 1,000 institutional and corporate venture capitalists (VCs) at more than 900 different firms to learn...
The COVID-19 crisis has led to spiking unemployment rates with disproportionate impacts on low-income families. School...
This paper addresses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by providing timely and accurate information on the...
I generalize the "noisy search" model of Burdett and Judd (1983) to settings where individual buyers have preferences...
This paper demonstrates that it is possible to construct accurate pictures of firm revenue, growth, geographic...
COVID-19 has led to an abrupt change in time spent at home, with many cities and states implementing official stay-at-...
Using a large-scale survey of U.S. consumers, we study how the large one-time transfers to individuals from the CARES...
New technology promises to expand the supply of financial services to small businesses poorly served by the banking...
During the COVID-19 pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay-at-home orders that restricted mobility. We...
We use Norwegian administrative data and applications for emergency government support to simulate magnitude and...
The current economic crisis has highlighted the need for data that are both timely and local so that the effects of...
Using unique City of Oakland data during COVID-19, we document that small business survival capabilities vary by firm...
The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) extended 669 billion dollars of forgivable loans in an unprecedented effort to...
What happens when public resources are allocated by private actors, whose objectives may be imperfectly aligned with...
The U.S. health care system has experienced great pressure since early March 2020 as it pivoted to providing necessary...
Data on firm-loan-level daily credit line drawdowns in the United States expose a corporate “dash for cash” induced by...
Violence against women is a problem worldwide, with economic costs ranging from 1-4% of global GDP. Using variation in...
We use high frequency internet search data to study in real time how US households sought out online learning...
A central question for understanding behaviour during the Covid-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective...
Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter...
We investigate how the coronavirus pandemic affected the demand for online food shopping services using data from the...
Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that required...
The Covid-19 Pandemic has led to changes in consumer expenditure patterns that can introduce significant bias in the...
Social distancing restrictions and demand shifts from COVID-19 are expected to shutter many small businesses, but...
Unlike most countries, Korea did not implement a lockdown in its battle against COVID-19, instead successfully relying...
In the wake of the global pandemic known as COVID-19, retirees, along with those hoping to retire someday, have been...
COVID-19 abruptly impacted the labor market with the unemployment rate jumping to 14.7 percent less than two months...
We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector...
The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded...
There is growing concern that the COVID-19 pandemic may have severe, adverse effects on the health care sector, a...
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and...
Drawing on firm-level expectations at a one-year forecast horizon in the Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU), we...
Firms with greater financial flexibility should be better able to fund a revenue shortfall resulting from the COVID-19...
The 2020 CARES Act directed large cash payments to households. We analyze house-holds’ spending responses using high-...
Using data on over 6,000 firms across 56 economies during the first quarter of 2020, we evaluate the connection...
In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act...
In addition to its impact on public health, COVID-19 has had a major impact on the economy. To shed light on how COVID...
We introduce a new word pattern-based method to automatically classify firms’ primary concerns related to the spread...
We explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to...
The impact of an economic shock depends both on its severity and the resilience of the economic response. Resilience...
We explore whether COVID-19 disproportionately affected women in the labor market using CPS data through the end of...
The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced huge numbers of employers and employees to remote work. How many of these newly...
Conventional wisdom often holds that the healthcare sector fares better than other sectors during economic downturns....
We test for heterogeneity in the effects of the COVID-19 recession on young workers by estimating month-by-month...
Canonical human capital theories posit that education, by enhancing worker skills, reduces the likelihood that a...
We investigate the source, magnitude, and unevenness of the procyclical forces that shape labor force participation, i...
We show that cities with higher population density specialize in high-skill service jobs that can be done remotely....
The Canadian labor market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic....
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation strategies exacted a large economic toll on large portions of the...
We examine how much of the overall decline in employment between the beginning of 2020 and 2021 can be explained by...
We use a UK employer-employee administrative earnings dataset to investigate the response of earnings and hours to...
COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home (WFH). We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple...
What are the effects of a temporary lockdown of the economy? Do firms' deteriorating balance sheets and labor market...
We examine the impact of the global recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic on women's versus men's employment....
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) increased US unemployment benefits...
The economic crisis associated with the emergence of the novel corona virus is unlike standard recessions. Demand for...
Using a survey of AFA members, we analyze how demographics, time allocation, production mechanisms, and institutional...
The expiration of the temporary $600 boost to weekly UI benefits under the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation...
We study the impact of widespread adoption of work-from-home (WFH) technology using an equilibrium model where people...
This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach...
The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent countermeasures, such as school closures, the shift to...
The destructive economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was distributed unequally across the population. Gender, race...
From February to April 2020, as COVID-19 hit the U.S. economy, the official unemployment rate (UR) climbed from 3.5...
We study how short-term labor markets responded to an extraordinary demand shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use...
The extent to which K-12 schools should remain open is at the forefront of discussions on long-term pandemic...
We report on the state of the labor market midway through the COVID recession, focusing particularly on measuring...
This paper studies how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected labor demand using over 100 million posted jobs on one of...
This paper develops a search-and-matching model that incorporates temporary unemployment and applies the model to...
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population...
We outline a macro-pandemic model where individuals can select into working from home or in the market. Market work...
COVID symptom screening, a new workplace practice, is likely to affect many millions of American workers in the coming...
Identifying essential and frontline workers and understanding their characteristics is useful for policymakers and...
This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and respiratory health for remote workers (i.e....
The CARES Act resulted in many unemployed workers receiving benefits that exceeded wages at their previous job. Given...
In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men than for women. Yet, in the current recession...
We use traditional and non-traditional data to measure the collapse and partial recovery of the U.S. labor market from...
We explore the impact of COVID-19 on employee's digital communication patterns through an event study of lockdowns in...
We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment....
COVID-19 may accelerate the automation of jobs, as employers invest in technology to adapt the production process to...
We summarize some of the early effects and discuss possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and recession on...
We build a publicly available database that tracks economic activity at a granular level in real time using anonymized...
The threat of COVID-19 has increased the health risks of going to an office or factory, leading more workers to do...
In the early phases of the COVID-19 epidemic labor markets exhibited considerable churn, which we relate to three...
In order to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on higher education, we surveyed approximately 1,500...
We report the results of a nationally-representative sample of the US population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The...
We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with Covid-19 across firms and workers. To do so, we exploit...
I use Current Population Survey Data from February and April 2020 to examine how individual workers have transitioned...
This paper examines the impact of the social distancing policies states adopted between March and April of 2020 in...
Employment rates in the United States fell dramatically between February 2020 and April 2020 as the repercussions of...
We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state’s unemployment insurance (UI) system to compute...
Big data on job-vacancy postings reveal several dimensions of the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. job market. Firms...
Using weekly administrative payroll data from the largest U.S. payroll processing company, we measure the evolution of...
We make several contributions to understanding the socio-demographic divide in early labor market responses to the U.S...
Using real-time register data we document the magnitude, dynamics and socio-economic characteristics of the crisis-...
The relationship between population health and measures of economic well-being and economic activity is a long...
Using data from O∗NET, we construct two measures of an occupation’s potential exposure to social distancing measures...
We use job vacancy data collected in real time by Burning Glass Technologies, as well as unemployment insurance (UI)...
We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are...
Evaluating the economic impact of "social distancing" measures taken to arrest the spread of COVID-19 raises a...
The COVID-19 pandemic has upended health and living standards around the world. This article provides an interim...
We study the effects of fiscal policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic at the firm, sector, country and global...
At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, the flight to safety was accompanied by a...
Governments around the world have gone on a massive fiscal expansion in response to the Covid crisis, increasing...
The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties...
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to...
COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines...
The Covid-19 crisis is an unusual and seemingly all-encompassing economic shock. On the one hand, it was...
Post WWII globalization forces are facing headwinds in the form of global crises-the “The Great Recession” and the “...
Due to its impact on nominal firm profits, price rigidity amplifies the response of entry and exit to adverse supply...
COVID-19 became a global health emergency when it threatened the catastrophic collapse of health systems as demand for...
The economic downturn caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak has substantial implications for gender equality, both...
In this paper we survey the historical record for over two centuries on the connection between expansionary fiscal...
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for...
This paper combines data on GDP, unemployment, and Google's COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports with data on deaths...
This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative...
We outline two divergent exit strategies of the U.S. from the post COVID-19 debt-overhang, and analyze their...
The COVID-19 pandemic spawned a global liquidity crisis in March 2020. The global liquidity crisis was alleviated by...
This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of...
We provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-offs between health outcomes and the distribution of economic outcomes...
The challenge for stabilization policy presented by the COVID-19 pandemic stems above all from disruption of the...
We discuss and review literature on the macroeconomic effects of epidemics and pandemics since the late 20th century....
We analyze the impact of public health policy on the spread of a disease using a version of the SIR model that...
We develop an ECON-EPI network model to evaluate policies designed to improve health and economic outcomes during a...
Countries are using macroprudential tools more actively with the goal of improving the resilience of their broader...
We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking...
As countries around the world grapple with Covid-19, their economies are grinding to a halt. For the first time since...
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that...
We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does...
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied...
We develop a heterogeneous-agents network-based model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak,...
We evaluate the effects of inequality, fiscal policy, and COVID19 restrictions in a model of economic slack with...
Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs...
This note develops a framework for thinking about the following question: What is the maximum amount of consumption...
The Federal Reserve has reacted swiftly to the COVID-19 pandemic. It has resuscitated many of its programs from the...
We study the effects of negative supply shocks and shocks to the composition of final demand on aggregate output in a...
The coronavirus pandemic has severely impacted emerging markets by generating a large death toll, deep recessions, and...
This paper quantitatively analyzes how policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic should differ in developing countries...
We use a five-age epidemiological model, combined with 66-sector economic accounting, to address a variety of...
We develop a simple dynamic economic model of epidemic transmission designed to be consistent with widely used SIR...
We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is...
We study supply and demand shocks in a disaggregated model with multiple sectors, multiple factors, input-output...
I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the...
We develop and calibrate a search-theoretic model of the labor market in order to forecast the evolution of the...
We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary...
We construct a quantitative model of an economy hit by an epidemic. People differ by age and skill, and choose...
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) like “stay-at-home” orders on the spread of...
This paper analyzes a sequential approach to lifting interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic taking heterogeneity in...
The “shutdown” economy of April 2020 is compared to a normally functioning economy both in terms of market and...
The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this...
We analyze the externalities that arise when social and economic interactions transmit infectious diseases such as...
The outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly disrupted the economy. This paper attempts to quantify the macroeconomic...
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the...
We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing...
This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with...
What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? How do they differ from other economic disasters? We study...
We present a theory of Keynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes in aggregate demand larger than the...
We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our...
This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United...
Accurately determining the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. The most important...
Recent observations on countries like the UK that have accumulated a large fraction of inoculated individuals suggest...
Facing unprecedented uncertainty and drastic trade-offs between public health and other forms of human well-being,...
It is now established that mortality and excess mortality from COVID-19 differed across racial and ethnic groups in...
Deaths of despair, morbidity and emotional distress continue to rise in the US. The increases are largely borne by...
Official statistics on deaths in India during the COVID pandemic are either incomplete or are reported with a delay....
We argue that the Covid epidemic disproportionately affected the economic well-being and health of poor people. To...
Using US Census Household Pulse Survey data for the period April 2020 to June 2021 we track the evolution of the...
We measure inequities from the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and hospitalizations in the United States during the...
We introduce a model of the diffusion of an epidemic with demographically heterogeneous agents interacting socially on...
Many models from epidemiology are not designed to capture tradeoffs between health and economic well-being and few are...
The advent of a pandemic is an exogenous shock, but the dynamics of contagion are very much endogenous --and depend on...
This paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported...
We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation and causality assessment in epidemiological models. The key to...
SARS-CoV-2 has had a greater burden, as measured by rate of infection, in poorer communities within cities. For...
On January 6, 2021, the U.S. Capitol was sieged by rioters protesting certification of Joseph R. Biden’s election as...
I present a behavioral epidemiological model of the evolution of the COVID epidemic in the United States and the...
We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, life expectancy, and...
Weekly mortality through October 3 is partitioned into normal deaths, COVID, and nonCOVID excess deaths (NCEDs)....
We formulate an economic time use model and add to it an epidemiological SIR block. In the event of an epidemic,...
We combined smartphone mobility data with census track-based reports of positive case counts to study a coronavirus...
The long-run costs and benefits of social insurance expansions may not be realized until a program has been in place...
We provide new evidence on the drivers of the early US coronavirus pandemic. We combine an epidemiological model of...
Comparing median outcomes to gauge treatment effectiveness is widespread practice in clinical and other investigations...
We compare and contrast the expected duration and number of infections and deaths averted among several designs for...
This paper documents two COVID-related risks, viral risk and employment risk, and their distributions across the...
We develop a model of human interaction to analyze the relationship between globalization and pandemics. Our framework...
Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are...
How might COVID-19 affect human capital and wellbeing in the long run? The COVID-19 pandemic has already imposed a...
The most commonly used test for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 is a PCR test that is able to detect very low viral loads...
India’s case fatality rate (CFR) under covid-19 is strikingly low, trending from 3% or more, to a current level of...
This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics....
Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities account for a disproportionate share of COVID-19 cases and...
To assess age-specific infection fatality rates (IFRs) for COVID-19, we have conducted a systematic review of...
As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand...
We simulate a spatial behavioral model of the diffusion of an infection to understand the role of geographic...
In the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, international testing efforts tended to target individuals whose...
We study the effects of testing policy on voluntary social distancing and the spread of an infection. Agents decide...
Group testing increases efficiency by pooling patient specimens and clearing the entire group with one negative test....
Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests brought a new...
This note seeks the socioeconomic roots of racial disparities in COVID-19 mortality, using county-level mortality,...
We correlate county-level COVID-19 death rates with key variables using both linear regression and negative binomial...
We analyze the effectiveness of preventive investments aimed at increasing agents' life expectancy, with a focus on...
This paper provides a quick survey of results on the classic SIR model and variants allowing for heterogeneity in...
This paper presents a procedure for estimating and forecasting disease scenarios for COVID-19 using a structural SIR...
We analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We consider a wide range of correlates -...
This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of vulnerability to severe com-plications from COVID...
As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, researchers are reporting findings of randomized trials comparing standard care...
We examine how policymakers react to a pandemic with uncertainty regarding key epidemiological parameters by embedding...
We use dynamic panel data models to generate density forecasts for daily Covid-19 infections for a panel of countries/...
We develop a model of pandemic risk management and firm valuation. We introduce aggregate transmission shocks into an...
We propose an index of the adequacy of home environments for protection (HEP) from COVID-19, and we compare our index...
We critically analyze the currently available status indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic so that state governors will...
We use data on deaths in New York City, Madrid, Stockholm, and other world cities as well as in various U.S. states...
Covid-19 is the single largest threat to global public health since the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-20. Was the...
What would a hypothetical one million US deaths in the Covid-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the...
We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a...
As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population...
This paper provides a critical review of models of the spread of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic that have been...
Congress responded to the COVID pandemic’s disruptions to instruction with unprecedented federal aid for school...
This paper analyzes a simple model of infectious disease where the incentives for individuals to reduce risks through...
This paper deals with COVID and macroprudential regulations in emerging markets. I document the build-up of a sturdy...
This paper considers fiscal policy during the pandemic through the lens of optimal social insurance. We develop a...
Can financial incentives, public health messages and other behavioral nudges –approaches deployed by state and local...
Racial Disparities in Access to Small Business Credit: Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program
We explore the sources of racial disparities in small business lending by studying the $806 billion Paycheck...
Almost all countries announced fiscal support programs once COVID-19 hit. However, there was significant diversity in...
This paper uses the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to examine how macroprudential frameworks developed over...
Due to the enormous economic, health, and social costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are high expected social...
Vaccination rates have a statistically significant downward effect on the Covid-19 death rate across US counties, as...
A well-being approach requires looking beyond COVID-19 deaths to compare the performance of elimination versus...
Local policies can have substantial spillovers both across geographies and markets. Little is known about the impact...
In response to the Covid-19 crisis, 186 countries implemented direct cash transfers to households, and 181 introduced...
Vaccine hesitancy is modelled as an endogenous decision within a behavioural SIR model with endogenous agent activity...
The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), causing widespread food insecurity...
During the COVID-19 epidemic, many health professionals started using mass communication on social media to relay...
We argue that alternative COVID-19 vaccine dosing regimens could potentially dramatically accelerate global COVID-19...
Interventions to promote learning are often categorized into supply- and demand-side approaches. In a randomized...
As a way of slowing COVID-19 transmission, many countries and U.S. states implemented shelter-in-place (SIP) policies...
In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can...
The speed with which Covid-19 vaccines were developed and their high-performance underlines how much society depends...
Innovation policy can be a crucial component of governments' responses to crises. Because speed is a paramount...
COVID-19 relief legislation offers a unique setting to study how political representation shapes the distribution of...
As countries transition from facing COVID-19 vaccine supply shortfalls to requiring novel strategies to facilitate...
Government transfer programs to distribute food, water, or electricity at low or no cost have been widespread during...
In the midst of mass COVID-19 vaccination distribution efforts in the U.S., Texas became the first state to abolish...
I use a model of private and public behavior to mitigate disease transmission during the COVID pandemic over the past...
This paper examines the effect of fall 2020 school reopenings in Texas on county-level COVID-19 cases and fatalities....
Were workers more likely to be infected by COVID-19 in their workplace, or outside it? While both economic models of...
A randomized-trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh during COVID-19 shows that the intervention...
We evaluate a large-scale set of interventions to increase demand for immunization in Haryana, India. The policies...
Domestic mobility restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 are widespread in developing countries, and have...
Can informing people of high community support for social distancing encourage them to do more of it? In theory, the...
Schools across the United States and the world have been closed in an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19....
The health costs of in-person schooling during the pandemic, if any, fall primarily on the families of students,...
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced countries to make difficult ethical choices, e.g., how to balance public health and...
We experimentally vary signals and senders to identify which combination will increase vaccine demand among a...
Social distancing via shelter-in-place strategies, and wearing masks, have emerged as the most effective non-...
Calls for eliminating prioritization for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are growing amid concerns that prioritization reduces...
Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the...
The decision about how and when to open schools to in-person instruction has been a key question for policymakers...
Vaccination against infectious disease may be beneficial to reduce illness in vaccinated persons and disease...
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, many localities instituted non-essential business closure orders, keeping...
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers, researchers, and journalists have made comparisons to...
Social distancing restrictions and health- and economic-driven demand shifts from COVID-19 shut down many small...
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment...
We use aggregated data from Facebook to show that COVID-19 was more likely to spread between regions with stronger...
To understand how best to combat COVID-19, we must understand how deadly is the disease. There is a substantial debate...
New York City has been rightly characterized as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Just...
Numerous government policies have attempted to keep workers out of the workplace, on the assumption that this will...
State and local governments throughout the United States attempted to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 using stay-at-...
Advance market commitments (AMCs) provide a mechanism to stimulate investment by suppliers of products to low-income...
For much of 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic upended social and economic life globally. In an effort to reduce COVID-19...
Contact tracing for COVID-19 is especially challenging because transmission often occurs in the absence of symptoms...
Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of...
This paper presents a simple price-theory approach to Covid-19 lockdown and reopening policy. The key idea is to...
Vaccines exert a positive externality, reducing spread of disease from the consumer to others, providing a rationale...
We assess the complicated reality of monetary policy transmission through mortgage markets by synthesizing the...
Enacted March 27, 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was the most ambitious and creative fiscal policy...
We assess the economic value of screening testing programs as a policy response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We...
Thinking beyond Covid-19, there is a growing interest in what economic structures will be needed to face ongoing...
Shutting down the workplace is an effective means of reducing contagion, but can incur large economic losses. We...
We estimate the impact of mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in...
In June 2020, we surveyed 2,516 Americans regarding their preferences for both short- and long-term expansions to...
Rugged individualism—the combination of individualism and anti-statism—is a prominent feature of American culture with...
Using county-level data on COVID-19 mortality and infections, along with county-level information on the adoption of...
We examine the effectiveness of forward guidance at the effective lower bound (ELB) in the context of the COVID-19...
We document four facts about the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide relevant for those studying the impact of non-...
We document the transmission of social distancing practices from the United States to Mexico along migrant networks...
We examine the role of state and local policies to encourage social distancing, including stay at home orders, public...
Tracking human activity in real time and at fine spatial scale is particularly valuable during episodes such as the...
Not much is obvious about how socioeconomic inequalities impact the spread of infectious diseases once one considers...
Managing the outbreak of COVID-19 in India constitutes an unprecedented health emergency in one of the largest and...
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deems large indoor gatherings without social distancing the “...
How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities,...
During health crises, like COVID-19, individuals are inundated with messages promoting health-preserving behavior....
We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical...
Media outlets often present diverging, even conflicting, perspectives on reality — not only informing, but potentially...
Since social distancing is the primary strategy for slowing the spread of many diseases, understanding why U.S....
Disease spread is in part a function of individual behavior. We examine the factors predicting individual behavior...
Policymakers have explicitly linked sustained reductions in COVID-19 case growth to reopening policies, including the...
The success of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain pandemics often depends greatly upon voluntary compliance...
During a pandemic, an individual's choices can determine outcomes not only for the individual but also for the entire...
We provide an interim report on the Indian lockdown provoked by the covid-19 pandemic. The main topics — ranging from...
Voluntary social distancing plays a vital role in containing the spread of the disease during a pandemic. As a public...
Little is known about how people’s beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) influence their behavior...
We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the US on regional differences in compliance with recommendations...
This short note constructs Mobility Zones to facilitate the discussion on the geographic extent of individual mobility...
This study quantifies the effect of state reopening policies on daily mobility, travel, and mixing behavior during the...
One of the most common policy prescriptions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 has been to legally enforce social...
South Korea publicly disclosed detailed location information of individuals that tested positive for COVID-19. We...
Key factors in modeling a pandemic and guiding policy-making include mortality rates associated with infections; the...
COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) therapy is currently a leading treatment for COVID-19. At present, there is a...
We study the effects of a massive temporary U.S. paid sick leave (PSL) mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020...
Social distancing via shelter-in-place strategies has emerged as the most effective way to combat Covid-19. In the...
We build and estimate a novel TANK model with partially unfunded debt to study whether the record high debt-to-GDP...
We develop a SIR-based macroeconomic model to study the impact of testing/quarantining and non-pharmaceutical...
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of financial intermediation and the economic effects of the Paycheck...
Shelter in place orders (SIPOs) require residents to remain home for all but essential activities such as purchasing...
This paper studies lockdown policy in a dynamic economy without government commitment. Lockdown imposes a cap on labor...
We develop a quantitative framework for exploring how individuals trade off the utility benefit of social activity...
To to get the COVID-19 virus under control, many countries have shut down parts of the economy. Older individuals have...
This paper considers a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic that allows...
This paper examines the determinants of social distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We classify state and local...
Using the 2012-13 American Time Use Survey, I find that both who people spend time with and how they spend it affect...
Even when, objectively speaking, death is on the line, partisan bias still colors beliefs about facts. We show that a...
On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued Executive Order N-33-20 2020, which required all residents...
We study the response of an economy to an unexpected epidemic. Households mitigate the spread of the disease by...
This paper measures the role of the diffusion of high-speed Internet on an individual's ability to self-isolate during...
Rationing of medical resources is a critical issue in the COVID-19 pandemic. Most existing triage protocols are based...
We study partisan differences in Americans’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Political leaders and media outlets on...
We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three critical points in the COVID-19 pandemic, to test...
We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the lockdown of the city of Wuhan on...
This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target...
We extend the baseline Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) infectious disease epidemiology model to...
COVID-19 has demonstrated the challenges that policymakers, insurers, businesses, and employees face when disaster...
We analyze the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on state and local government finances, with an emphasis on health...
The decades-long effort to produce a workable HIV vaccine has hardly been a waste of public and private resources. To...
This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the...
There is a widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global income inequality, reducing per capita...
The paper formalizes and tests the hypothesis that greater exposure to big shocks induces stronger societal responses...
We analyze the role of international trade and health coordination in times of a pandemic by building a two-economy,...
It is sometimes said that an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic will be heightened appreciation of the importance of...
We analyze the tone of COVID-19 related English-language news articles written since January 1, 2020. Ninety one...
Starting from the assumption that improving well-being is the central consideration for public policies, we show how...
We document trends in affective polarization during the coronavirus pandemic. In our main measure, affective...
Major crises—from terrorist attacks to outbreaks of disease—bring the trade-off between individual civil liberties and...
A major focus of debate about rationing guidelines for COVID-19 vaccines is whether and how to prioritize access for...
The surprise economic shutdown due to COVID-19 caused a sharp improvement in urban air quality in many previously...
Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the long-term impact of school closures during the Corona crisis on...
Intercollegiate amateur athletics in the US largely bars student-athletes from sharing in any of the profits generated...
The U.S. health care system has experienced great pressure since early March 2020 as it pivoted to providing necessary...
Recent studies demonstrate that air quality improved during the coronavirus pandemic due to the imposition of social...
The coronavirus has created an enormous—and expensive—challenge for elementary and secondary schools, while...
COVID-19 has created a dual set of stresses on health care systems worldwide: a rise in expensive intensive care...
The outbreak of COVID-19 has called for swift action by governments, often involving the adoption of restrictive...
The largest economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic could arise from changes in behavior long after the immediate...
We assess the Covid-19 pandemic’s implications for state government sales and income tax revenues. We estimate that...
What political legacy is bequeathed by national health crises such as epidemics? We show that epidemic exposure in an...
Using original data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight OECD countries (N = 21,649...
Globalization is expected to be reversed, at least partially, in the post pandemic era. The Great Financial Recession...
COVID-19 antibody tests have imperfect accuracy. There has been lack of clarity on the meaning of reported rates of...
Recent outbreaks of infectious pathogens such as Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19 have underscored the need for the...
On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due...
A key driver in biopharmaceutical investment decisions is the probability of success of a drug development program. We...
In the midst of epidemics such as COVID-19, therapeutic candidates are unlikely to be able to complete the usual...
Millions of goods and services are now unavailable in many countries due to the current coronavirus pandemic,...
The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in...
Social interactions and social preferences play a central role in public health domains. In the face of a pandemic,...
Reductions in ambient pollution have been taken as an indisputable "silver lining" to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Indeed,...
We conducted a large-scale survey covering 58 countries and over 100,000 respondents between late March and early...
This paper seeks to answer the simple question of what category of retail outlets generates the most physical...
New York City’s multipronged subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of...
Motivated by reports in the media suggesting unequal access to Covid-19 testing across incomes, we analyze zip-code...
Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods
New York City is the hot spot of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This paper merges information on the...
The COVID-19 pandemic has reignited interest in responses to the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, the last comparable U.S....
Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies...
This article reviews the global health and economic consequences of the 1918 influenza pandemic, with a particular...
Mandated shutdowns of nonessential businesses during the COVID-19 crisis brought into sharp relief the tradeoff...
This paper studies how better access to public health insurance affects infant mortality during pandemics. Our...
A key issue for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is whether non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) retard...
We analyze the repercussions of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on demographic measures, human capital formation, and...
Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for...
Almond (2006) argues that in-utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic lowered socioeconomic status in adulthood,...
Recent medical literature suggests that vitamin D supplementation protects against acute respiratory tract infection....
The U.S. tuberculosis movement pioneered many of the strategies of modern public health campaigns. Dedicated to...
Estimates of the long-term annual cost of global warming lie in the range of 0.2-2% of global income. This high cost...
The 1918 Influenza Pandemic killed millions worldwide and hundreds of thousands in the United States. This paper...
This paper examines positive externalities and complementarities in the use of antiviral pharmaceuticals to mitigate...
The seasonal influenza virus afflicts millions of people in the U.S. population each year, imposing significant costs...
In June 2009, the World Health Organization declared that novel influenza A (nH1N1) had reached pandemic status...
More from NBER
In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews.
Alan J. Auerbach, the Robert D. Birch Professor of Economics and Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and...
Long-time NBER research associates Joshua Angrist, David Card, and Guido Imbens have been awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in recognition of...
The credible estimation of causal effects is a central task of applied econometrics. Two tools for this purpose that...