We thank Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Guido Lorenzoni, Emi Nakamura, Brent Neiman, Sebastian Graves, Robert Kollmann, Werner Roeger, Borağan Aruoba, Andreas Hornstein, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Narayana Kocherlakota, Stephanie Schmidt-Grohé, and David Lopez-Salido for helpful discussions, and seminar participants at Yale University, Duke University, Boston University, Erasmus University, Pennsylvania State University, Southern Methodist University, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, University of Oxford, the Einaudi Institute, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, as well as participants as various conferences for comments. We especially thank Diego Anzoategui, who assisted us during intermediate stages of this research. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 18STCBT00001-03-00. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-2315629. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Finally, the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.