Unemployed With Jobs and Without Jobs
Potential workers are classified as unemployed if they seek work but are not working. The unemployed population contains two groups -- those with jobs and those without jobs. Those with jobs are on furlough or temporary layoff. This group expanded tremendously in April 2020. They wait out periods of non-work with the understanding that their jobs still exist and that they will be recalled. We show that the resulting recall-unemployment dissipates quickly following a spike. Potential workers without jobs constitute what we call jobless-unemployment. Shocks that elevate jobless-unemployment have much more persistent effects. Historical major adverse shocks, such as the financial crisis in 2008, created mostly jobless-unemployment and consequently caused extended periods of elevated unemployment. The pandemic of 2020 created a large volume of recall-unemployment, mostly starting in April. It largely dissipated by November. It also created a bulge in jobless-unemployment.
Hall's research was supported by the Hoover Institution. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System. We thank Benjamin Schoefer for helpful discussions. Data and calculations and an online appendix providing
additional results are available at Kudlyak's website.
Robert E. Hall
Hall attends conferences and meetings at the Federal Reserve Board and regional Federal Reserve Banks, at the European Central Bank, and at the central banks of other countries, including the United Kingdom, Portugal, Chile, and Canada. In some cases, he receives honorariums for his participation. His wife, Susan Woodward, has similar relations with the Federal Reserve System. His daughter is an economist at the US Treasury. His son is chief economist of Uber Technologies, Inc. Hall's research is supported by Stanford's Hoover Institution.