Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures
We surveyed representative samples of Italian residents at three critical points in the COVID-19 pandemic, to test whether and how intentions to comply with social-isolation restrictions respond to the duration of their possible extension. Individuals reported being more likely to reduce, and less likely to increase, their self-isolation effort if negatively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e., if the extension is longer than what they expected), whereas positive surprises had no impact. These results are consistent with reference-dependent preferences, with individual expectations serving as a reference point, and loss aversion. Our findings indicate that public authorities should carefully manage expectations about policy measures and account for behavioral reactions to deviations from previous announcements.
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Copy CitationGuglielmo Briscese, Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, and Mirco Tonin, "Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures," NBER Working Paper 26916 (2020), https://doi.org/10.3386/w26916.
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Published Versions
Briscese, Guglielmo & Lacetera, Nicola & Macis, Mario & Tonin, Mirco, 2023. "Expectations, reference points, and compliance with COVID-19 social distancing measures," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 103(C). citation courtesy of 
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