NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Guglielmo Briscese

University of Chicago
5807 S Woodlawn Ave
Chicago, IL 60637

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Institutional Affiliation: University of Chicago

NBER Working Papers and Publications

March 2020Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration
with Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, Mirco Tonin: w26916
We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions introduced in Italy to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents are more likely to express the intention to reduce, and less willing to increase their self-isolation effort if negatively surprised by a given hypothetical extension, i.e. if the extension is longer than what they expected. These intentions are stronger among respondents who reported high compliance with the isolation prescriptions. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provi...
 
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