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  The US dollar appreciated by 23 percent against a broad basket of other currencies between January 2011 and December 2019, and has continued its appreciation since then. In Understanding the Strength of the Dollar (NBER Working Paper 30558), Zhengyang Jiang, Robert J. Richmond, and Tony Zhang analyze factors that contributed to the dollar’s rise. They estimate that global growth in investor savings accounted for appreciation of 8.7 percent, relatively tight...
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Scientists and engineers tend to work more productively in high-tech-intensive cities. With more opportunities to network with their peers, they appear to benefit from knowledge spillovers, and their firms benefit from a larger labor pool. Productivity gains — defined as the number of patents produced in a year — increase steadily when firms in cities with smaller concentrations of research and development activity are compared to those in localities with larger...
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The United States is home to world-class universities that attract hundreds of thousands of international students each year. Between 2000 and 2015, the number of international students who received either a bachelor’s or master’s degree from a US college or university ranged between 500,000 and 1 million per year. Many of these students acquired substantial human capital in the course of their studies. Whether these graduates deploy their skills in the US labor market...
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Article
The US has long limited admission of contract foreign laborers for low-skill work in order to avoid adversely affecting US workers. Some employers have claimed that the labor supplied by their foreign workers is critical for the success of their businesses. In The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery (NBER Working Paper 30589), Michael A. Clemens and Ethan G. Lewis find that firms authorized to employ...
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Article
The real interest rate has dropped sharply in the twenty-first century. To what extent is this likely to be temporary, rather than persistent? In Long-Run Trends in Long-Maturity Real Rates 1311–2021 (NBER Working Paper 30475), Kenneth Rogoff, Barbara Rossi, and Paul Schmelzing examine a rich dataset on long-maturity sovereign debt over the past seven centuries and find that long-term global real interest rates have exhibited a persistent downward trend of about 1.6...

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    Working paper figure w30431
    Article
    The United States is home to world-class universities that attract hundreds of thousands of international students each year. Between 2000 and 2015, the number of international students who received either a bachelor’s or master’s degree from a US college or university ranged between 500,000 and 1 million per year. Many of these students acquired substantial human capital in the course of their studies. Whether these graduates deploy their skills in the US labor market...
    Working Paper Figure w30368
    Article
      In the late nineteenth century, unrestricted hunting pushed the North American bison population from nearly 8 million to near extinction. For the Native Americans of the Great Plains, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountains, this eliminated a resource that had served as their primary source of livelihood for over 10,000 years and that featured in almost every facet of life. In The Slaughter of the Bison and Reversal of Fortunes on the Great Plains (NBER...
    Working Paper Figure w30400
    Article
    Significant changes in manufacturing in the twentieth century were driven by the advent and diffusion of automated machine tools. In Automation after the Assembly Line: Computerized Machine Tools, Employment, and Productivity in the United States (NBER Working Paper 30400), Leah Platt Boustan, Jiwon Choi, and David Clingingsmith find that industries that were more exposed to computer numerical control (CNC) machines from 1970 to 2010 increased capital investment more...
    Working Paper Figure w30303
    Article
    When colleges and universities reopened in the fall of 2021, only 47 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds in the United States were fully vaccinated against COVID-19. At institutions that required students to be vaccinated, however, the vaccination rates were much higher. In The Effect of Vaccine Mandates on Disease Spread: Evidence from College COVID-19 Mandates (NBER Working Paper 30303), Riley K. Acton, Wenjia Cao, Emily E. Cook, Scott A. Imberman, and Michael F. Lovenheim...
    The graph is an event-study figure titled "Ship-Exhaust Pollution and Infant Birth Weights."   The chart plots estimates of the difference in the rate of low infant birth weights between counties most and least affected by ship-exhaust pollution, relative to 2010.   The y-axis ranges from -3 to +2 births in 1,000, and the x-axis ranges from 2006 to 2016 (year of conception). The maritime emission regulation was adopted in 2012.  In the year after adoption, the rate of low infant birth weights fell by about
    Article
    Maritime shipping emits half as much fine particulate matter as global road traffic. A decade ago, the United States in conjunction with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) issued new regulations to limit the emissions of oceangoing vessels. As a result, particulate pollution has fallen substantially in areas along US coastlines. In Uncharted Waters: Effects of Maritime Emission Regulation (NBER Working Paper 30181), Jamie Hansen-Lewis and Michelle M. Marcus...

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Gita Gopinath The 2022 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Managing a Turn in the Global Financial Cycle Primary tabs
  • Lecture
Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, delivered the 2022 Martin...
 2022 Summer Institute Methods Lectures: Empirical Bayes Methods, Theory and Application image
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Large data sets that include observations on many workers at a given firm, multiple decisions by individual judges,...
Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, and Philip Dybvig
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Former NBER research associate Ben Bernanke, current research associate Douglas Diamond, and Philip Dybvig have been awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial...

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