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Article
Three new working papers distributed this week report on the economic, health, and related consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and public policies that respond to it. One estimates that the pandemic increased the likelihood of financial distress at for-profit hospitals by almost seven percentage points (29388). Another analyzes the impact of pandemic-related school closures on children from different income and demographic groups (29398). A third examines the effect of...
2021_NobelPrizewinners_Angrist_Card_Imbens
Article
Long-time NBER research associates Joshua Angrist, David Card, and Guido Imbens have been awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in recognition of their contributions to labor economics and the analysis of natural experiments. In announcing the prize, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences explained that “Card’s studies of core questions for society, and Angrist and Imbens’ methodological contributions, have shown that natural experiments are a rich source of...
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Article
Author(s): Alan J. Auerbach
The 2021 Martin S. Feldstein Lecture It is a great pleasure to give the Martin Feldstein Lecture at the NBER Summer Institute.  Marty was my dissertation adviser and a coauthor, and I learned a lot from him over the years. Indeed, I want to begin with a couple of Marty’s contributions to the topic of my lecture, not simply to remind us how versatile Marty was in his research, but also because the points he made in these papers inform my discussion. The first of...
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Article
Author(s): Alberto Cavallo
For over a decade, my research has explored the use of high-frequency microdata to measure inflation and other economic statistics in real time in an effort to make academic macroeconomic research more timely and useful for policymakers. The COVID-19 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to test this methodology, particularly around the topic of inflation. After the crisis started, the United States experienced a relatively small decline in inflation in 2020, followed...
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Article
In the mid-1800s, mortality rates in US and Western European cities were much higher than those in rural areas. Since then, urban mortality rates have fallen dramatically. Driven by reductions in infectious diseases and diseases of infancy and childhood, this phenomenon is often referred to as the mortality transition and has been recognized as one of the most significant developments in the history of human welfare.1 By the 1940s, the mortality “penalty” from living in a...

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    Article
    Latency-arbitrage races constitute about a fifth of total daily FTSE 350 Index trading volume and cumulate to about $5 billion annually in global equity markets. Reducing latency, the amount of time it takes an electronic order to reach a trading venue, has become increasingly important to traders looking to profit from small, temporary price differences between exchanges. Latency-arbitrage competitions are measured in microseconds (millionths of a second), and...
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    Article
    The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented loss of 22 million jobs in early 2020. Older workers were not immune from this event, and indeed, could have been disproportionately affected. Older workers face greater health risks from the virus, and those seeking new employment after job loss may encounter limited demand or employers unwilling to take on older workers. Workers age 62 and above also have the option of retiring and collecting Social Security benefits. All of...
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    Article
    Children who had greater exposure to the welfare reforms of the 1990s reported less food insecurity as adults. In 1992, some US states began experimenting with welfare reforms. Federal waivers allowed them to develop programs to reduce cash assistance by imposing work requirements and other conditions on beneficiaries. In 1996, the federal government ended cash welfare benefit entitlements and replaced them with block grants that imposed a five-year lifetime limit...
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    Article
    Among business school undergraduate alumni, men were more willing than women to hold out for higher-paying first jobs after graduation. Gendered differences in men’s and women’s behavioral traits — namely, risk preferences and overconfidence — generate differences in job search behavior and may explain as much as 25 percent of the difference between men’s and women’s earnings in their first jobs, according to survey data on job search behavior analyzed by Patricia...
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    Article
    The employment rates of women of similar age and educational attainment have not systematically differed by whether or not they have young children. In April 2021, the number of jobs in the US economy was about 8 million below the number in February 2020. As vaccinations spread and hard-hit sectors of the economy reopened, individuals who were not seeking employment appeared to play a major role in the low level of employment, since there were record numbers of...

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In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews.

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  • Lecture
Alan J. Auerbach, the Robert D. Birch Professor of Economics and Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and...
2021_NobelPrizewinners_Angrist_Card_Imbens
  • Article
Long-time NBER research associates Joshua Angrist, David Card, and Guido Imbens have been awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in recognition of...
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  • Lecture
The credible estimation of causal effects is a central task of applied econometrics. Two tools for this purpose that...

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