Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment
Historically high debt-to-GDP levels in the U.S. have raised concerns about future financial market stability and fiscal sustainability. We use high-frequency data and consider Treasury futures price changes within narrow windows around auction announcements in order to identify two distinct Treasury supply shocks: debt volume shocks that capture changes in the level of public debt, and maturity adjustment shocks that reflect changes in the maturity structure. We find that debt expansion shocks raise yields across the curve by increasing term premia, leading to tighter financial conditions. These shocks crowd out private sector activity by reducing investment and production, particularly during periods of rapid debt growth. In contrast, maturity extension shocks steepen the yield curve while lowering credit risk premia and fiscal uncertainty. By reducing risk premia, these shocks stimulate near-term investment and production, even as higher long-term borrowing costs weigh on longer-horizon investment. We also show that the Treasury debt management policy can meaningfully interact with the Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs.
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Copy CitationHuixin Bi, Maxime Phillot, and Sarah Zubairy, "Treasury Supply Shocks: Propagation Through Debt Expansion and Maturity Adjustment," NBER Working Paper 35098 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w35098.Download Citation
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