Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data
Working Paper 32579
DOI 10.3386/w32579
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We develop a new dataset to study homeowners insurance using over 74 million premiums from 2014–2024 inferred from mortgage escrow payments. We document rapidly rising premiums and a doubling of the pass-through from disaster risk into premiums. Using variation in correlated wildfire and hurricane exposure, we show that the increase in the risk-to-premium gradient was accelerated by a repricing of catastrophic risk in global capital markets. Premium increases are capitalized into home values, reducing home price growth by over $40,000 in the most exposed zipcodes. The premium and home price effects are larger in areas facing rising climate risk.
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Copy CitationBenjamin J. Keys and Philip Mulder, "Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data," NBER Working Paper 32579 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w32579.Download Citation
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Non-Technical Summaries
- Average property insurance premiums have risen by more than 30 percent since 2020, and there is wide variation by location. Premiums...