NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices

Nicolas L. Bottan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia

NBER Working Paper No. 27412
Issued in June 2020

---- Acknowledgments ----

We are thankful for excellent comments from Emi Nakamura, Jon Steinsson, Bradley Nathan, Jerry Nickelsburg and seminar discussants at UC Berkeley. Perez-Truglia was employed at University of California, Los Angeles while much of this paper was written. We thank funding from the UCLA’s Ziman Center for Real Estate’s Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Program in Real Estate, Finance and Urban Economics and UCLA Anderson’s Behavioral Lab. Zhihao Han provided excellent research assistance. This project was reviewed and approved in advance by the Institutional Review Boards at University of California Los Angeles (#18-001496 and #19-000945) and Cornell University (#1811008440). The experiments were pre-registered in the AEA RCT Registry (#0003663). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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