NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Nicolas L. Bottan

Policy Analysis and Management
Cornell University
MVR Hall 3220
Ithaca, NY 14853
USA
Tel: 6072555724

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Cornell University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

June 2020Betting on the House: Subjective Expectations and Market Choices
with Ricardo Perez-Truglia: w27412
Home price expectations play a central role in macroeconomics and finance. However, there is little direct evidence on how these expectations affect market choices. We provide the first experimental evidence based on a large-scale, high-stakes field experiment in the United States. We provided information by mail to 57,910 homeowners who recently listed their homes on the market. Collectively, these homes were worth $34 billion dollars. We randomized the information contained in the mailing to create non-deceptive, exogenous variation in the subjects’ home price expectations. We then used rich administrative data to measure the effects of these information shocks on the subject’s market choices. We find that, consistent with economic theory, higher home price expectations caused the subjec...
July 2017Choosing Your Pond: Location Choices and Relative Income
with Ricardo Perez-Truglia: w23615
We propose that, when individuals are deciding where to live, they care about the position in the income distribution in their prospective location. To test this hypothesis, we develop a new methodology to estimate preferences over location characteristics that combines choice data, survey data and information-provision experiments. We implement this methodology with a sample of 1,080 senior medical students who participated in the National Resident Matching Program. These subjects were choosing the cities to which they would move and live in for the next five years. We provide suggestive evidence that individuals care about what their relative income would be in a prospective city, and that those preferences have substantial heterogeneity by relationship status. Using a separate subject p...
 
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