Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty
We examine how policymakers should react to a pandemic when there is significant uncertainty regarding key parameters relating to the disease. In particular, this paper explores how optimal mitigation policies change when incorporating uncertainty regarding the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and the Basic Reproduction Rate (R0) into a macroeconomic SIR model in a robust control framework. This paper finds that optimal policy under parameter uncertainty generates an asymmetric optimal mitigation response across different scenarios: when the disease’s severity is initially underestimated the planner increases mitigation to nearly approximate the optimal response based on the true model, and when the disease’s severity is initially overestimated the planner maintains lower mitigation as if there is no uncertainty in order to limit excess economic costs.
We are grateful to Scott Baker, Nick Bloom, Buz Brock and Lars Hansen for helpful comments and discussions. This draft is preliminary and incomplete, comments are welcome. This draft is preliminary, comments are welcome. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.