Good-Bye Original Sin, Hello Risk On-Off, Financial Fragility, and Crises?
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NBER Working Paper No. 27030
We analyze the sovereign bond issuance data of eight major emerging markets (EM) - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and South Africa - in 1970-2018. Our analysis suggests EMs are more likely to issue local-currency sovereign bonds if their currencies appreciated before the global financial crisis of 2008 (GFC). Inflation-targeting monetary policy regime increases the likelihood of issuing local-currency debt before GFC but not after. EMs that offer higher yields are more likely to issue local-currency bond after GFC. EM bonds which are smaller in size, shorter in maturity, or lower in coupon rate are more likely to be issued in local currency. Future data will allow us to test and identify structural changes associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w27030