NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Business Cycle Anatomy

George-Marios Angeletos, Fabrice Collard, Harris Dellas

NBER Working Paper No. 24875
Issued in July 2018, Revised in April 2020
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24875

 
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