Demographics and Aggregate Household Saving in Japan, China, and India
We present a model of household life-cycle saving decisions in order to quantify the impact of demographic changes on aggregate household saving rates in Japan, China, and India. The observed age distributions help explain the contrasting saving patterns over time across the three countries. In the model simulations, the growing number of retirees suppresses Japanese saving rates, while decreasing family size increases saving for both China and India. Projecting forward, the model predicts lower household saving rates in Japan and China.
This paper has benefited from presentations at Carnegie Mellon / the University of Pittsburgh, the 2015 Chinese Economists Society conference (Ann Arbor), the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the 2014 China’s Economic Growth conference (Omaha), the University of Notre Dame, and the 2015 Virginia Association of Economists meeting. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Curtis, Chadwick C. & Lugauer, Steven & Mark, Nelson C., 2017. "Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan, China, and India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-191. citation courtesy of