Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict
There is tremendous variation in conflict intensity both across and within civil conflict spells. Using an instrumental variables approach and a rich set of dynamic, empirical models, we find that the intensity of conflict is negatively related to per-capita income. Economic conditions also affect conflict dynamics, as higher per-capita income reduces the persistence of past conflict intensity.
We thank Luke Condra, Raymond Hicks, Michael Horowitz, Sarah Hummel, Paul Poast, Burcu Savun, Scott Schaefer, Jacob Shapiro, and Kathryn Shaw. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Stephen Chaudoin & Zachary Peskowitz & Christopher Stanton, 2017. "Beyond Zeroes and Ones," Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol 61(1), pages 56-83.