Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0

We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened ICE activity during the second Trump administration. We take advantage of the fact that increases in ICE activity have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control, and then implement an event study and difference-in-differences design. Areas that experienced particularly large and sudden increases in the number of arrests also see a decrease in work among likely undocumented immigrants who remain in the U.S., compared to areas with smaller increases in arrests. The number of male U.S.-born workers at work also declines in the face of ICE activity, due to a combination of complementarities in production and reductions in economic activity.