The “Peace Dividend” of International Trade: A New Empirical Approach

This paper investigates the causal impact of international trade on interstate military conflicts using global bilateral data from 1962 to 2014. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit exogenous spatial-temporal variation in international trade stemming from technological advances in air relative to maritime transport. Empirical results demonstrate a strong “peace dividend” of international trade: that is, increased trade significantly reduces the probability and intensity of conflicts between nations. This effect remains robust across specifications and withstands a wide range of potential confounders. Such findings highlight how economic interdependence shapes international conflict—a relationship that is especially relevant amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward “decoupling”, “de-risking”, and greater trade protectionism.