The Impact of Virtual Instruction on the Transition to College: Evidence from COVID-19

During the COVID-19 pandemic, virtual instruction reduced in-person support that may have helped high school students transition to college. Using national school-level data on FAFSA submissions, ACT participation, and first-year college enrollment, we estimate a difference-in-differences model that exploits cross-school variation in virtual instruction during the 2020/2021 school year. A fully virtual school year reduced FAFSA submissions by 4.2 percentage points, ACT participation by 4.8 percentage points, and first-year college enrollment by 2.5 percentage points. FAFSA submissions partially rebounded after reopening, but ACT participation and college enrollment did not. Effects were substantially larger in disadvantaged schools.