How Do Interest Rates Affect Consumption? Household Debt and the Role of Asset Prices
Working Paper 34911
DOI 10.3386/w34911
Issue Date
This paper estimates how rate cuts increase consumption, via debt and asset prices. Using administrative UK data on mortgages and consumption, we exploit the expiry of fixed-rate mortgages to construct six million household-level natural experiments. A 1pp reduction in mortgage rates raises consumption by 3% in the following 6 months. Using plausibly exogenous variation in how house prices respond to rate cuts, we show that consumption increases mostly because households borrow against higher house prices; lower debt service after rate cuts matters less. These results suggest that in large part, monetary policy affects consumption through asset prices and borrowing
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Copy CitationAngus K. Foulis, Jonathon Hazell, Atif R. Mian, and Belinda Tracey, "How Do Interest Rates Affect Consumption? Household Debt and the Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Paper 34911 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34911.Download Citation