Capital Structure, Seniority, and Risk Premia: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange, 1870–1929
Working Paper 34899
DOI 10.3386/w34899
Issue Date
We use security-level data from the Investors Monthly Manual (IMM) to construct capital-weighted return indexes for the London Stock Exchange over the period 1870–1929. We find a significant and persistent equity risk premium of 3.7% over commercial paper and 4.5% over long-term government bonds, with significant co-movement with GDP growth. Returns decline monotonically with claim seniority: common stocks earn more than preferred shares, which earn more than corporate bonds. Both equity risk premia are highly significant, and the rolling 10-year return spread for stocks minus bonds is positive for every interval in the 60-year sample period.
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Copy CitationWilliam N. Goetzmann and K. Geert Rouwenhorst, "Capital Structure, Seniority, and Risk Premia: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange, 1870–1929," NBER Working Paper 34899 (2026), https://doi.org/10.3386/w34899.Download Citation