Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence

The authors thank Thummim Cho, John Campbell, Joao Cocco, Anastassia Fedyk, Luigi Guiso, Christine Laudenbach, Xiumin Martin, Emanuel Moench, Christopher Roth, Andrei Shleifer, Maik Schmeling, Michael Ungeheuer, Johannes Wohlfart, seminar participants at Harvard Business School, University of Oxford, UC Berkeley, Washington University St. Louis, USC Marshall School of Business, Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, HEC Montreal, BIS, HEC Paris and conference participants at the ECB-FRBNY Conference on Survey Expectations 2021, the ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data 2022, UBC Winter Finance Conference 2022, UKY Finance Conference 2022, CEPR Workshop on Household Finance 2022, FIRS 2022, CEBRA 2022, SAFE Asset Pricing Workshop 2022, and AFA 2023 for many valuable comments. Gokul Raj Boobathy, Justin Bollhalder, Tobias Huelden and Tommaso Manfe provided excellent research assistance. Disclaimers: This paper uses data from the Bundesbank Survey on Consumer Expectations. The results published and the related observations and analysis may not correspond to results or analysis of the data producers. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily coincide with the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank or the Eurosystem. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.