The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data
We estimate the impact of financial sanctions in the U.S. criminal justice system using nine distinct natural experiments across five states. These regression discontinuity designs capture a range of enforcement levels ($17–$6,000) and institutional environments, providing robust causal evidence and external validity. We leverage survey and administrative data to consider a variety of short and long-term outcomes including employment, recidivism, household expenditures, spousal spillovers, and other self-reported measures of well-being. We find consistent, robust evidence of precise null effects on the population, including ruling out long-run impacts larger than -$347–$168 in annual earnings and -0.002–0.01 in annual convictions.
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Copy CitationKeith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael G. Mueller-Smith, "The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data," NBER Working Paper 31581 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3386/w31581.Download Citation
Published Versions
Keith Finlay & Matthew Gross & Carl Lieberman & Elizabeth Luh & Michael Mueller-Smith, 2024. "The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multistate Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 490-508, December, DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20230413. citation courtesy of ![]()