The Impact of Violence on the Dynamics of Migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution
Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.
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Copy CitationDavid Escamilla-Guerrero, Edward Kosack, and Zachary Ward, "The Impact of Violence on the Dynamics of Migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," NBER Working Paper 31531 (2023), https://doi.org/10.3386/w31531.Download Citation
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Published Versions
Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2025. "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515. citation courtesy of 
David Escamilla-Guerrero & Edward Kosack & Zachary Ward, 2025. "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, vol 176.
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