The US COVID-19 Baby Bust and Rebound

This paper documents how the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. affected birth rates. We review the economics of fertility, describing the evidence that would predict a COVID baby bust. We then use Vital Statistics birth data to estimate the size of that bust and its rebound, for the country as a whole and separately for each state, and relate those changes to state-level factors. The onset of the pandemic in the late winter and early spring of 2020 resulted in 62,000 fewer conceptions leading to a live birth. This baby bust was followed by a rebound of 51,000 conceptions later that year, leading to a small net reduction in births conceived in 2020. We also find that a larger increase in the aggregate unemployment rate, a larger reduction in household spending, and higher cumulative COVID caseloads were associated with larger baby busts in the first part of the year. Births rebounded more in states that saw a larger improvement in the labor market and household spending. COVID caseloads played a smaller role. We conclude the paper by observing that these changes pale in comparison to the large decline in US birth rates that has occurred over the past 15 years.