Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports and the Demand for Vaccination
Vaccine hesitancy is modelled as an endogenous decision within a behavioural SIR model with endogenous agent activity. It is shown that policy interventions that directly target costs associated with vaccine adoption may counter vaccine hesitancy while those that manipulate the utility of unvaccinated agents will either lead to the same or lower rates of vaccine adoption. This latter effect arises with vaccine passports whose effects are mitigated in equilibrium by reductions in viral/disease prevalence that themselves reduce the demand for vaccination.
Thanks to Ajay Agrawal, Avi Goldfarb and Richard Holden for helpful discussions. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.