Health vs. Wealth? Public Health Policies and the Economy During Covid-19
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) like “stay-at-home” orders on the spread of infectious disease. Local policies have little impact on the economy nor on local public health. Stay-at-home is only weakly associated with slower growth of Covid-19 cases. Reductions in observed “mobility” are not associated with slower growth of Covid-19 cases. Stay-at-home is associated with lower workplace and more residential activity, but common shocks matter much more. Moreover, job losses have been no higher in US states that implemented stay-at-home during the Covid-19 pandemic than in states that did not have stay-at-home. All of these results demonstrate that the Covid-19 pandemic is a common economic and public health shock. They also show that policy spillovers and behavioral responses are important. The tradeoff between the economy and public health in a pandemic depends strongly on what is happening elsewhere. This underscores the importance of coordinated economic and public health responses.
- Author(s): Alexander W. BartikMarianne BertrandFeng LinJesse RothsteinMatt UnrathRaj ChettyJohn N. FriedmanMichael StepnerThe Opportunity Insights TeamOlivier CoibionYuriy GorodnichenkoMichael WeberAustan GoolsbeeChad SyversonSumedha GuptaThuy D. NguyenFelipe Lozano RojasShyam RamanByungkyu LeeAna I. BentoKosali I. SimonCoady WingThuy D. NguyenSumedha GuptaMartin AndersenAna I. BentoKosali I. SimonCoady WingSumedha GuptaLaura MontenovoThuy D. NguyenFelipe Lozano RojasIan M. SchmutteKosali I. SimonBruce A. WeinbergCoady WingEliza ForsytheLisa B. KahnFabian LangeDavid G. WiczerPeter Zhixian LinChristopher M. MeissnerThe 2020 NBER Summer Institute's Economics of Social Security meeting featured a panel discussion on the implications of the COVID-19...