Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization
We measure trends in affective polarization in twelve OECD countries over the past four decades. According to our baseline estimates, the US experienced the largest increase in polarization over this period. Five countries experienced a smaller increase in polarization. Six countries experienced a decrease in polarization. We relate trends in polarization to trends in potential explanatory factors concerning the economy, technology, demography, and politics.
We thank James Adams, Klaus Desmet, John Duca, Ray Fair, Morris Fiorina, Greg Huber, Shanto Iyengar, Emir Kamenica, Rishi Kishore, Yphtach Lelkes, Matthew Levendusky, Neil Malhotra, Greg Martin, Eoin McGuirk, Pippa Norris, Carlo Schwarz, Sean Westwood, and seminar participants at the DC Political Economy Center Webinar, Stanford University, the Brown Data Science Initiative, the CREST Reading Group on Political Economy, and the American Economic Association for their comments and suggestions.
I am a member of the Toulouse Network of Information Technology, a research group funded by Microsoft. I have also done paid consulting for Amazon and Analysis Group.Jesse M. Shapiro
Shapiro has, in the past, been a paid visitor at Microsoft Research New England and a paid consultant for FutureOfCapitalism, LLC. Shapiro has been paid for writing by the New York Times.
Shapiro's spouse has a disclosure statement posted at https://www.brown.edu/research/projects/oster/sites/brown.edu.research.projects.oster/files/uploads/COI.txt.
- Negative feeling toward opposing political parties is up most sharply in the United States. It has also risen in Canada, Switzerland...