Puzzling Exchange Rate Dynamics and Delayed Portfolio Adjustment
NBER Working Paper No. 26259
The objective of this paper is to show that the proposal by Froot and Thaler (1990) of delayed portfolio adjustment can account for a broad set of puzzles about the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The puzzles include: i) the delayed overshooting puzzle; ii) the forward discount puzzle (or Fama puzzle); iii) the predictability reversal puzzle; iv) the Engel puzzle (high interest rate currencies are stronger than implied by UIP); v) the forward guidance exchange rate puzzle; vi) the absence of a forward discount puzzle with long-term bonds. These results are derived analytically in a simple two-country model with portfolio adjustment costs. Quantitatively, this approach can match all targeted moments related to these puzzles.
You may purchase this paper on-line in .pdf format from SSRN.com ($5) for electronic delivery.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w26259