NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Rising Policy Uncertainty

Steven J. Davis

NBER Working Paper No. 26243
Issued in September 2019
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program, Public Economics Program, Political Economy Program

I review evidence of rising policy uncertainty in the U.S. and global economies, drawing heavily on newspaper-based measures. Examples from countries around the world illustrate the role of political and policy developments as drivers of fluctuations in economic uncertainty. I also highlight the prominent role of trade policy as a source of uncertainty and stock market volatility since March 2018, when U.S.-China tensions began to escalate. Lastly, I offer remarks on the interplay between policy uncertainty and economic performance.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w26243

 
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