NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles

Mikhail Chernov, Drew D. Creal

NBER Working Paper No. 25206
Issued in November 2018
NBER Program(s):Asset Pricing Program, International Finance and Macroeconomics Program

The depreciation rate is often computed as the ratio of foreign and domestic pricing kernels. Using bond prices alone to estimate these kernels leads to currency puzzles: the inability of models to match violations of uncovered interest parity and the volatility of exchange rates. One cannot use information in bonds alone because exchange rates are not spanned by bonds. This view of the puzzles is distinct from market incompleteness. Incorporating exchange rates into estimation of yield curve models helps with resolving the puzzles. It also allows us to connect the differences between international yield curves to characteristics of exchange rates.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w25206

 
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