Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers
An important and open question in monetary economics is how the Federal Reserve makes its policy decisions. We document that when an FOMC member was born, his/her educational background and the Committee’s changing hawk-dove composition have predictable effects on FOMC decisions. The odds of an FOMC member being a hawk are higher when he/she graduated from a university linked to the Chicago school of economics; on the other hand, a dove likely graduated from a university with strong Keynesian beliefs and was born during a period of high unemployment. These findings have implications for the choice of and confirmation of FOMC members.
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Banque de France or the National Bureau of Economic Research. We thank Jonathan Rose for his discussion and Alan Blinder, Yuri Gorodnichenko, Amy Nakamura, Rob Roy McGregor, David Papell, Barbara Rossi and participants at ASSA 2020, at the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC) 2018 Fall Meeting, at the SOMC 2019 Conference, at the seminar at the University of California, Berkeley, at the Federal Reserve of Atlanta, at the Federal Reserve of Chicago, at the Bank of England, University of Houston and UNC Charlotte for comments and suggestions.
Michael Bordo & Klodiana Istrefi, 2023. "Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers," Journal of Monetary Economics, .