NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence

Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb

NBER Working Paper No. 24243
Issued in January 2018

---- Acknowledgments ----

Our thanks to Andrea Pratt, Scott Stern, Hal Varian and participants at the AEA (Chicago), NBER Summer Institute (2017), NBER Economics of AI Conference (Toronto), Harvard Business School, MIT, and University of Toronto for helpful comments. Responsibility for all errors remains our own. This research was generously supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Joshua S. Gans ----

I work with the Creative Destruction Lab that advises start-ups involved in artificial intelligence.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for Avi Goldfarb ----

Avi Goldfarb has equity in several publicly traded technology companies as part of a broad investment portfolio.

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