Globalization and the Increasing Correlation between Capital Inflows and Outflows
We document that the correlation between capital inflows and outflows has increased substantially over time in a sample of 128 advanced and developing countries. We provide evidence that this is a result of an increase in financial globalization (stock of external assets and liabilities). This dominates the effect of an increase in trade globalization (exports plus imports), which reduces the correlation between capital inflows and outflows. In the context of a two-country model with 14 shocks we show that the theoretical impact of financial and trade globalization on the correlation between capital inflows and outflows is consistent with the data.
We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Bankard Fund for Political Economy and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. This paper represents the views of the authors, which are not necessarily the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research.
J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2018. "Globalization and the increasing correlation between capital inflows and outflows," Journal of Monetary Economics, . citation courtesy of