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Instrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms: Unpacking The Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters

Christian Dippel, Robert Gold, Stephan Heblich, Rodrigo Pinto

NBER Working Paper No. 23209
Issued in March 2017, Revised in June 2018

---- Acknowledgments ----

We thank Alberto Alesina, David Autor, Sascha Becker, Sonia Bhalotra, Gilles Duranton, Jon Eguia, Johanna Fajardo, Andreas Ferrara, Markus Frölich, Paola Giuliano, James Heckman, Martin Huber, Kosuke Imai, Ed Leamer, Yi Lu, Craig McIntosh, Ralph Ossa, Sebastian Ottinger, Anne Otto, David Pacini, Bruno Pellegrino, Maria Petrova, Justin Pierce, David Slichter, Daniel Sturm, Peter Schott, Zhigang Tao, Dustin Tingley, Dan Trefler, Nico Voigtländer, Wouter Vermeulen, Till von Wachter, Romain Wacziarg, Frank Windmeijer, Yanos Zylberberg, and seminar participants at Bristol, Kiel, the LMU, the LSE, Toronto, UCLA, UCSD, U HK, Warwick, the 2015 Quebec Political Economy conference, the 2016 EEA conference, the 2017 VfS conference, and the 2017 INET conference for valuable comments and discussions. We also thank David Slichter for thoughtful comments and Wolfgang Dauth for sharing the crosswalk from product classifications to industry classifications in the German IAB data. Dippel acknowledges financial support from UCLA’s Center for Global Management. This paper builds on an earlier working paper titled “Globalization and its (Dis-)Content.” The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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