Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models
Identification problems arise naturally in forward-looking models when agents observe more than economists. We illustrate the problem in several New Keynesian and macro-finance models in which the Taylor rule includes a shock unseen by economists. We show that identification of the rule's parameters requires restrictions on the form of the shock. A state-space treatment verifies that this works when we observe the state of the economy and when we infer it from observable macroeconomic variables or asset prices.
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