The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons

David E. Bloom, Elizabeth T. Cafiero, Mark E. McGovern, Klaus Prettner, Anderson Stanciole, Jonathan Weiss, Samuel Bakkila, Larry Rosenberg

NBER Working Paper No. 19335
Issued in August 2013
NBER Program(s):Economics of Aging, Health Care, Health Economics, Labor Studies

This paper provides estimates of the economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China and India for the period 2012-2030. Our estimates are derived using WHO's EPIC model of economic growth, which focuses on the negative effects of NCDs on labor supply and capital accumulation. We present results for the five main NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes, and mental health). Our undiscounted estimates indicate that the cost of the five main NCDs will total USD 27.8 trillion for China and USD 6.2 trillion for India (in 2010 USD). For both countries, the most costly domains are cardiovascular disease and mental health, followed by respiratory disease. Our analyses also reveal that the costs are much larger in China than in India mainly because of China's higher income and older population. Rough calculations also indicate that WHO's Best Buys for addressing the challenge of NCDs are highly cost-beneficial.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w19335

Published: The Journal of the Economics of Ageing Volume 4, December 2014, Pages 100–111 The Economic Implications of Population Ageing in China and India Cover image Full Length Article The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons David E. Blooma, , , Elizabeth T. Cafiero-Fonsecag, , Mark E. McGoverna, b, , Klaus Prettnerc, , Anderson Stancioled, , Jonathan Weisse, f, , Samuel Bakkilag, , Larry Rosenbergg,

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