The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring
This paper is the first to study vacancies, hires, and vacancy yields at the establishment level in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a large sample of U.S. employers. To interpret the data, we develop a simple model that identifies the flow of new vacancies and the job-filling rate for vacant positions. The fill rate moves counter to aggregate employment but rises steeply with employer growth rates in the cross section. It falls with employer size, rises with worker turnover rates, and varies by a factor of four across major industry groups. We also develop evidence that the employer-level hiring technology exhibits mild increasing returns in vacancies, and that employers rely heavily on other instruments, in addition to vacancies, as they vary hires. Building from our evidence and a generalized matching function, we construct a new index of recruiting intensity (per vacancy). Recruiting intensity partly explains the recent breakdown in the standard matching function, delivers a better-fitting empirical Beveridge Curve, and accounts for a large share of fluctuations in aggregate hires. Our evidence and analysis provide useful inputs for assessing, developing and calibrating theoretical models of search, matching and hiring in the labor market.
We thank Shigeru Fujita, Giuseppe Moscarini, Éva Nagypál, Josh Pinkston, Fabien Postel-Vinay, Mike Pries, Richard Rogerson, Rob Shimer and seminar participants at Berkeley, Chicago, LSE, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, National University of Singapore, Penn, Stanford, Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco, and several conferences for many helpful comments. We thank Bruce Fallick, Charles Fleischman, and Rob Shimer for providing CPS data on gross worker flows and Marios Michaelides, Nathan Brownback, April Chen and Olga Deriy for excellent research assistance. Davis gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Booth School of Business. The views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the Federal Reserve System, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Bureau of the Census or the views of other staff members.
Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622. citation courtesy of