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About the Author(s)

Menzie Chinn Profile

Menzie Chinn is a Research Associate in the NBER's International Finance and Macroeconomics Program and is a National Fellow at the NBER during the 2002-3 academic year. He is also Professor of Economics at the University of California at Santa Cruz. During 2000-1, Chinn served as senior staff economist for international finance on the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton and Bush Administrations. His responsibilities included research on Japanese macroeconomic policy issues and assessing the implications of energy market developments. He also has been a visiting scholar at the IMF, the Federal Reserve Board, and Humboldt University in Berlin.

Chinn received his A.B. in economics from Harvard University in 1984 and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. He began teaching at UC Santa Cruz in 1991. His research focuses on the macroeconomic interaction between countries, using econometric methods. His earlier work examined the determinants of exchange rate behavior among developed countries, with an emphasis on the role of productivity differentials. His later research examines the empirical factors underlying currency crises. Recently, he has examined the interaction between capital controls, institutional characteristics of economies, and the financial development of credit and equity markets.

Chinn resides in Santa Cruz, California, and is married to Laura Schwendinger, a composer at the University of Illinois, Chicago.


1. Alan Greenspan, Testimony of the Federal Reserve Board's semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress, before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, July 16, 2002.   Go to ⤴︎
2. B. A. Balassa, "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, 72 (1964), pp. 584-96; and P. A. Samuelson, "Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems," Review of Economics and Statistics, 46 (1964), pp. 145-54. Go to ⤴︎
3. See M. D. Chinn, "Whither the Yen? Implications of an Intertemporal Model of the Yen/Dollar Rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 11 (2) (June 1997), pp. 228-46. Go to ⤴︎
4. These are panel regression techniques adapted to data that appear to follow unit root processes. See for instance P. Pedroni, "Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels," Review of Economics and Statistics, 83 (4) (2001), pp. 727-31. Go to ⤴︎
5. M. D. Chinn, "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Paper 6108, July 1997, and in Review of International Economics, 8 (1) (February 2000), pp. 20-43. Go to ⤴︎
6. M. D. Chinn and L. D. Johnston, "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," NBER Working Paper 5709, August 1996; and M. D. Chinn, "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Paper 5943, February 1997, and in Equilibrium Exchange Rates, R. MacDonald and J. L. Stein, eds., Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999, pp. 163-90. Go to ⤴︎
7. R. Alquist and M. D. Chinn, "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Paper 8824, March 2002. Go to ⤴︎
8. See K. A. Froot and K. S. Rogoff, "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," in G. M. Grossman and K. S. Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics, Vol. III, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1995. Go to ⤴︎
9. Y. Cheung, M. D. Chinn, and E. Fujii, "Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Paper 7408, October 1999; also "Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6 (2) (April 2001), pp. 95-114. Go to ⤴︎
10. J. A. Frankel and K. A. Froot, "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, 77 (1) (March 1987), pp. 133-53; and "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104 (1) (February 1989), pp. 139-61.   Go to ⤴︎
11. M. D. Chinn and J. A. Frankel, "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," NBER Working Paper 3807, December 1994, and "Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased? Tests for a Cross-Section of 25 Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26 (4) (November 1994), pp. 759-70.   Go to ⤴︎
12. J. A. Frankel and M. D. Chinn, "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross-Section of 17 Currencies," NBER Working Paper 3806, August 1991, and Review of International Economics, 1 (2) (June 1993), pp. 136-44. Some of these results are updated in M. D. Chinn and J. A. Frankel, "Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations: More Currencies, More Horizons, More Tests," in W. Allen and D. Dickinson, eds., Monetary Policy, Capital Flows and Financial Market Developments in the Era of Financial Globalisation: Essays in Honour of Max Fry, London: Routledge, 2002, pp. 145-67. Go to ⤴︎
13. G. Meredith and M. D. Chinn, "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Paper 6797, November 1998.   Go to ⤴︎
14. Y. Cheung and M. D. Chinn, "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Paper 7417, November 1999; and "Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Paper 7416, November 1999, published as "Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," Journal of International Money and Finance, 20 (4) (August 2001), pp. 439-71. Go to ⤴︎
15. Y. Cheung, M. D. Chinn and I. W. Marsh, "How Do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?" NBER Working Paper 7524, February 2000. Go to ⤴︎
16. R. Meese and K. S. Rogoff, "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do They Fit Out of Sample?" Journal of International Economics, 14 (1983), pp. 3-24; and "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?" in J. A. Frenkel, ed., Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983, pp. 67-105. Go to ⤴︎
17. N. C. Mark, "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, 85 (1995), pp. 201-18; and M. Chinn and R.Meese, "Banking on Currency Forecasts: How Predictable Is Change in Money?" Journal of International Economics, 38 (1-2) (1995), pp. 161-78. Go to ⤴︎
18. J. Faust, J. Rogers and J. Wright, "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We've Really Made," paper presented at conference on "Empirical Exchange Rate Models," University of Wisconsin, September 28-29, 2001. Forthcoming in Journal of International Economics. The long horizon finding has been re-established in a panel context; see N. C. Mark and D. Sul, "Nominal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Journal of International Economics, 53 (1) February 2001, pp. 29-52. Go to ⤴︎
19. Y. Cheung, M. D. Chinn and A. G. Pascual, "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?" NBER Working Paper 9393, December 2002. Go to ⤴︎
20. Y.Cheung and M. D. Chinn, "Integration, Cointegration, and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models," Journal of International Money and Finance, 17 (5) (1998), pp. 813-30.   Go to ⤴︎
21. These results are confirmed in a related paper which also assesses in-sample fit. See Y. Cheung, M. D. Chinn and A. G. Pascual, "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," mimeo (October 2002), forthcoming in P. DeGrauwe, ed., Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand? Cambridge: MIT Press for CESifo. Go to ⤴︎

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