NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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The NBER Reporter 2016 Number 2

Program and Working Group Meetings


Health Care
International Trade and Investment
International Finance and Macroeconomics
Public Economics
Corporate Finance
Political Economy
Asset Pricing
Behavioral Finance
Insurance


Innovation Policy
Children
Education
Behavioral Finance
Environmental and Energy Economics
Cohort Studies
Health Economics
Organizational Economics
Chinese Economy

Health Care

The NBER's Program on Health Care, directed by Jonathan Gruber of MIT, met in Cambridge on March 11. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Michael Geruso, University of Texas at Austin and NBER, and Timothy J. Layton, Harvard University, "Upcoding or Selection? Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment"

    Jishnu Das and Alaka Holla, World Bank; Aakash Mohpal, University of Michigan; and Karthik Muralidharan, University of California, San Diego, and NBER, "Quality and Accountability in Healthcare Delivery: Audit-Study Evidence from Primary Care in India" (NBER Working Paper No. 21405)

    David C. Chan, Jr., Stanford University and NBER, "The Efficiency of Slacking Off: Evidence from the Emergency Department" (NBER Working Paper No. 21002)

    Mark L. Egan, University of Minnesota, and Tomas Philipson, University of Chicago and NBER, "Health Care Adherence and Personalized Medicine" (NBER Working Paper No. 20330)

    Hummy Song, Harvard University; Robert Huckman, Harvard University and NBER; and Jason Barro, Bain & Company, "Cohort Turnover and Operational Performance: The July Phenomenon in Teaching Hospitals"

    Leila Agha, Keith Marzilli Ericson, and James B. Rebitzer, Boston University and NBER; Kimberley Geissler, University of Massachusetts Amherst; and Benjamin Lubin, Boston University, "Coordination within Teams and the Cost of Health Care"

    Leila Agha and James B. Rebitzer, Boston University and NBER, and Brigham Frandsen, Brigham Young University, "Causes and Consequences of Fragmented Care Delivery: Theory, Evidence, and Public Policy"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/HCs16/summary.html

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International Trade and Investment

The NBER's Program on International Trade and Investment, directed by Robert Feenstra of the University of California, Davis, met in Cambridge on March 18–19. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Pol Antrà, Harvard University and NBER; Alonso de Gortari Briseno, Harvard University; and Oleg Itskhoki, Princeton University and NBER, "Inequality, Costly Redistribution, and Welfare in an Open Economy"

    Lorenzo Caliendo, Yale University and NBER; Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor, University of California, Davis, and NBER; and John Romalis, University of Sydney and NBER, "Tariff Reductions, Entry, and Wel-fare: Theory and Evidence for the Last Two Decades" (NBER Working Paper No. 21768)

    Ferdinando Monte, Georgetown University, and Stephen J. Redding and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Princeton University and NBER, "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities" (NBER Working Paper No. 21706)

    Benjamin Faber and Thibault Fally, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, "Firm Heterogeneity in Consumption Baskets: Evidence from Home and Store Scanner Data"

    Rudolfs Bems, International Monetary Fund, and Robert C. Johnson, Dartmouth College and NBER, "Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates" (NBER Working Paper No. 21070)

    Lee G. Branstetter, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER, and Matej Drev, Georgia Institute of Technology, "Who's Your Daddy? Foreign Investor Origin, Multi-Product Firms, and the Benefit of Foreign Investment"

    Christoph Boehm, Aaron Flaaen, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Michigan, "Multinationals, Off-shoring, and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing" Jean-Noël Barrot and Erik Loualiche, MIT, and Julien Sauvagnat, Bocconi University (Milan), "The Globalization Risk Premium"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/ITIs16/summary.html

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International Finance and Macroeconomics

The NBER's Program on International Finance and Macroeconomics, directed by Jeffrey A. Frankel of Harvard University, met in Cambridge on April 1. Laura Alfaro and Emmanuel Farhi of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Kinda Cheryl Hachem, University of Chicago and NBER, and Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "Liquidity Regulation and Unintended Financial Transformation in China" (NBER Working Paper No. 21880)

    Jean-Noël Barrot and Erik Loualiche, MIT, and Julien Sauvagnat, Bocconi University (Milan), "The Globalization Risk Premium"

    Marina Halac, Columbia University, and Pierre Yared, Columbia University and NBER, "Fiscal Rules and Discretion in a World Economy" (NBER Working Paper No. 21492)

    Michael B. Devereux, University of British Columbia and NBER; Eric Young, University of Virginia; and Changhua Yu, Peking University (Beijing), "A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden-stop Economies" (NBER Working Paper No. 21791)

    Gauti B. Eggertsson, Brown University and NBER; Neil Mehrotra and Sanjay Singh, Brown University; and Lawrence H. Summers, Harvard University and NBER, "A Contagious Malady? Open Economy Dimensions of Secular Stagnation" (NBER Working Paper No. 22299)

    Dmitriy Sergeyev, Bocconi University (Milan), "Optimal Macroprudential and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union"

    Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe, Columbia University and NBER, "Multiple Equilibria in Open Economy Models with Collateral Constraints: Overborrowing Revisited" (NBER Working Paper No. 22264)

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/IFMs16/summary.html

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Public Economics

The NBER's Program on Public Economics met in Cambridge on April 1. Directors Raj Chetty of Stanford University and Amy Finkelstein of MIT and Faculty Research Fellows Nathaniel Hendren of Harvard University and Neale Mahoney of the University of Chicago organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Caroline M. Hoxby, Stanford University and NBER, and George Bulman, University of California, Santa Cruz, "The Effects of the Tax Deduction for Postsecondary Tuition: Implications for Structuring Tax-Based Aid" (NBER Working Paper No. 21554)

    Eric Bettinger, Stanford University and NBER; Oded Gurantz, Stanford University; Laura Kawano, Department of the Treasury; and Bruce Sacerdote, Dartmouth College and NBER, "The Long Run Impacts of Merit Aid: Calculations from California's Cal Grant"

    Sarena Goodman, Federal Reserve Board, and Adam Isen, Department of the Treasury, "UnFortunate Sons: Ef-fects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery on the Next Generation's Labor Market"

    Jacob Mortenson and Andrew Whitten, Georgetown University, and Heidi R. Schramm, Joint Committee on Taxation, "The Effect of Required Minimum Distribution Rules on Withdrawals from Traditional Individual Retirement Accounts"

    Bradley Heim, Indiana University, and Gillian Hunter, Adam Isen, Ithai Lurie, and Shanthi Ramnath, Department of the Treasury, "Income Responses to the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from the Premium Tax Credit"

    Annette Alstadsæter, Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Martin Jacob, WHU—Otto Beisheim School of Management (Germany); Wojciech Kopczuk, Columbia University and NBER; and Kjetil Telle, Statistics Norway, "Accounting for Business Income in Measuring Top Income Shares: Integrated Accrual Approach Using Individual and Firm Data from Norway"

    Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore; Gene Amromin, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago; Souphala Chomsisengphet, Department of the Treasury; Tomasz Piskorski, Columbia University and NBER; Amit Seru, University of Chicago and NBER; and Vincent Yao, Georgia State University, "Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program" (NBER Working Paper No. 21512)

    Eduardo Dávila, New York University, "Using Elasticities to Derive Optimal Bankruptcy Exemptions"

    Alexander M. Gelber, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; Damon Jones, University of Chicago and NBER; Daniel W. Sacks, Indiana University; and Jae Song, Social Security Administration, "Estimating Extensive Margin Responses on Kinked Budget Sets: Evidence from the Earnings Test"

    Sharat Ganapati, Yale University; Joseph S. Shapiro, Yale University and NBER; and Reed Walker, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, "Energy Prices, Pass-Through, and Incidence in U.S. Manufacturing" (NBER Working Paper No. 22281)

    Brian Baugh and Hoonsuk Park, Ohio State University, and Itzhak Ben-David, Ohio State University and NBER, "The 'Amazon Tax': Empirical Evidence from Amazon and Main Street Retailers" (NBER Working Paper No. 20052)

    Stefan Pichler, ETH Zurich, and Nicolas R. Ziebarth, Cornell University, "The Pros and Cons of Sick Pay Schemes: Testing for Contagious Presenteeism and Shirking Behavior"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/PEs16/summary.html

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Corporate Finance

The NBER's Program on Corporate Finance met in Chicago on April 7–8. Faculty Research Fellow Shai Bernstein of Stanford University and Research Associate C. Fritz Foley of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Adriano A. Rampini and S. Vish Viswanathan, Duke University and NBER, and Guillaume Vuillemey, HEC Paris, "Risk Management in Financial Institutions"

    Viral Acharya, Thomas Philippon, and Matthew Richardson, New York University and NBER, "Measuring Systemic Risk for Insurance Companies"

    Sabrina T. Howell, New York University, "Relaxing Constraints on Risk Management: Evidence from a Natural Experiment"

    Erik Stafford, Harvard University, "Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting"

    Joshua D. Gottlieb, University of British Columbia and NBER; Richard Townsend, Dartmouth College; and Ting Xu, University of British Columbia, "Experimenting with Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Job-Protected Leave"

    Francesco D'Acunto, University of Maryland; Ryan Liu, University of California, Berkeley; Carolin Pflueger, University of British Columbia; and Michael Weber, University of Chicago and NBER, "Flexible Prices and Leverage"

    Mark L. Egan, University of Minnesota, and Gregor Matvos and Amit Seru, University of Chicago and NBER, "The Market For Financial Adviser Misconduct" (NBER Working Paper No. 22050)

    Peter Koudijs, Stanford University and NBER, and L>aura Salisbury, York University and NBER, "Bankruptcy and Investment: Evidence from Changes in Marital Property Laws in the U.S. South, 1840–1850" (NBER Working Paper No. 21952)

    Marieke Bos, Stockholm University; Emily L. Breza, Columbia University and NBER; and Andres Liberman, New York University, "The Labor Market Effects of Credit Market Information"

    Rick Harbaugh and John W. Maxwell, Indiana University, and Kelly Shue, University of Chicago and NBER, "Consistent Good News and Inconsistent Bad News"

    Pedro Bordalo, Royal Holloway, University of London; Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University (Milan); and Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University and NBER, "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CFs16/summary.html

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Political Economy

The NBER's Program on the Political Economy met in Cambridge on April 8. Program Director Alberto Alesina of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Ernesto Dal Bó, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; Pablo I. Hernández-Lagos, New York University Abu Dhabi; and Sebastián Mazzuca, Johns Hopkins University, "The Paradox of Civilization: Pre-Institutional Sources of Security and Prosperity" (NBER Working Paper No. 21829)

    Joram Mayshar, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Omer Moav, University of Warwick; Zvika Neeman, Tel Aviv University; and Luigi Pascali, Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona), "Cereals, Appropriability, and Hierarchy"

    Renee Bowen, Stanford University and NBER; Jackie M. L. Chan, Chinese University of Hong Kong; Oeindrila Dube, New York University and NBER; and Nicolas Lambert, Stanford University, "Reform Fatigue"

    Melissa Dell, Harvard University and NBER, and Pablo Querubin, New York University, "Bombing the Way to State-Building? Lessons from the Vietnam War"

    S. Nageeb Ali, Pennsylvania State University, and Roland Bénabou, Princeton University and NBER, "Image versus Information: Changing Societal Norms and Optimal Privacy" (NBER Working Paper No. 22203)

    Abhijit Banerjee and Benjamin A. Olken, MIT and NBER; Rema Hanna, Harvard University and NBER; Jordan C. Kyle, International Food Policy Research Institute; and Sudarno Sumarto, SMERU Research Institute (Indonesia), "Contracting out the Last Mile of Service Delivery: Subsidized Food Distribution in Indonesia" (NBER Working Paper No. 21837)

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/POLs16/summary.html

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Asset Pricing

The NBER's Program on Asset Pricing met in Chicago on April 8. Faculty Research Fellow Adrien Verdelhan and Research Associate Deborah J. Lucas, both of MIT, organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Lars P. Hansen, University of Chicago and NBER, and Thomas J. Sargent, New York University and NBER, "Sets of Models and Prices of Uncertainty" (NBER Working Paper No. 22000)

    Robert Novy-Marx, University of Rochester and NBER, "Testing Strategies Based on Multiple Signals"

    Nina Boyarchenko and David Lucca, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Laura Veldkamp, New York University and NBER, "Taking Orders and Taking Notes: Dealer Information Sharing in Financial Markets"

    Brian Weller, Northwestern University, "Measuring Tail Risks at High Frequency"

    Michael D. Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and James D. Hamilton, University of California, San Diego, and NBER, "Robust Bond Risk Premia"

    Erik P. Gilje, University of Pennsylvania; Robert C. Ready, University of Rochester; and Nikolai Roussanov, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Fracking, Drilling, and Asset Pricing: Estimating the Economic Benefits of the Shale Revolution"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/APs16/summary.html

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Behavioral Finance

The NBER's Working Group on Behavioral Finance met in Chicago on April 9. Working Group Director Nicholas Barberis of Yale University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Juhani T. Linnainmaa, University of Chicago and NBER; Brian T. Melzer, Northwestern University; and Alessandro Previtero, University of Western Ontario, "The Misguided Beliefs of Financial Advisors"

    Jeffrey Hoopes, Ohio State University; Patrick Langetieg, Internal Revenue Service; Stefan Nagel and Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan and NBER; Daniel Reck and Bryan Stuart, University of Michigan, "Who Sold During the Crash of 2008–9? Evidence from Tax-Return Data on Daily Sales of Stock" (NBER Working Paper No. 22209)

    Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Capital Fund Management (Paris); Philipp Krüger, University of Geneva; Augustin Landier, Toulouse School of Economics; and David Thesmar, HEC Paris, "Sticky Expectations and Stock Market Anomalies"

    Camelia M. Kuhnen, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and NBER, and Andrei C. Miu, Babeş-Bolyai University (Romania), "Socioeconomic Status and Learning from Financial Information" (NBER Working Paper No. 21214)

    Stefano Giglio and Bryan T. Kelly, University of Chicago and NBER, "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates" (NBER Working Paper No. 22045)

    J. Anthony Cookson, University of Colorado, Boulder, and Marina Niessner, Yale University, "Why Don't We Agree? Evidence from a Social Network of Investors"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/BFs16/summary.html

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Insurance

The NBER's Working Group on Insurance met in Chicago on April 9. Directors Liran Einav of Stanford University and Kenneth A. Froot of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Anna V. Chorniy, Princeton University, and Daniel Miller and Tilan Tang, Clemson University, "Mergers in Medicare Part D: Decomposing Market Power, Cost Efficiencies, and Bargaining Power"

    Pietro Tebaldi, Stanford University, "Estimating Equilibrium in Health Insurance Exchanges: Price Competition and Subsidy Design under the ACA"

    A. Mitchell Polinsky, Stanford University and NBER, and Steven Shavell, Harvard University and NBER, "The Theory of Insurance When Suits Can Be Brought for Losses Suffered"

    Naoki Aizawa, University of Minnesota, and You Suk Kim, Federal Reserve Board, "Advertising and Risk Selection in Health Insurance Markets"

    Michael Geruso, University of Texas at Austin and NBER, and Timothy J. Layton, Harvard University, "Upcoding or Selection? Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment"

    Adriano A. Rampini and S. Vish Viswanathan, Duke University and NBER, and Guillaume Vuillemey, HEC Paris, "Risk Management in Financial Institutions"

    Sabrina T. Howell, New York University, "Relaxing Constraints on Risk Management: Evidence from a Natural Experiment"

    Viral Acharya, Thomas Philippon, and Matthew Richardson, New York University and NBER, "Measuring Systemic Risk for Insurance Companies"

    Darius N. Lakdawalla, University of Southern California and NBER; Julian Reif, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; and Daniel Bauer, Georgia State University, "Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life"

    Benjamin L. Collier and Erwann Michel-Kerjan, University of Pennsylvania; Daniel Schwartz, University of Chile; and Howard Kunreuther, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Risk Preference Inconsistencies across Low and High Stakes: Evidence from the Field"

    Amanda Starc and Robert Town, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Internalizing Behavioral Externalities: Benefit Integration in Health Insurance" (NBER Working Paper No. 21783)

    Juan Pablo Atal, University of California, Berkeley, "Lock-in in Dynamic Health Insurance Contracts: Evidence from Chile"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/INSs16/summary.html

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Innovation Policy

The NBER's Working Group on Innovation Policy met in Washington, D.C., on April 12. Working Group Director Scott Stern of MIT and Research Associates Shane Greenstein and Josh Lerner, both of Harvard University, organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Joel Waldfogel, University of Minnesota and NBER, "The Random Long Tail and the Golden Age of Television"

    Marc Rysman, Boston University, and Scott Schuh, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, "New Innovations in Payments"

    Amalia R. Miller, University of Virginia and NBER, and Catherine Tucker, MIT and NBER, "Frontiers of Health Policy: Digital Data and Personalized Medicine"

    Michael Luca, Harvard University, "Designing Online Marketplaces"

    Timothy F. Bresnahan, Stanford University and NBER, and Pai-Ling Yin, Stanford University, "Adoption of New Information and Communications Technologies in the Workplace Today"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/IPEs16/summary.html

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Children

The NBER's Program on Children met in Washington, D.C., on April 14. Program Co-Directors Anna Aizer of Brown University and Janet Currie of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    David Figlio, Northwestern University and NBER; Claudio Persico, Northwestern University; and Jeffrey Roth, University of Florida, "Inequality before Birth: The Developmental Consequences of Environmental Toxins" (NBER Working Paper No. 22263)

    Ozkan Eren, Louisiana State University, and Naci Mocan, Louisiana State University and NBER, "Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles"

    Jason M. Lindo, Texas A&M University and NBER, and Analisa Packham, Texas A&M University, "How Much Can Expanding Access to Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives Reduce Teen Birth Rates?" (NBER Working Paper No. 21275)

    Alan Barreca, Tulane University and NBER; Olivier Deschênes, University of California, Santa Barbara, and NBER; and Melanie E. Guldi, University of Central Florida, "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates" (NBER Working Paper No. 21681)

    Ludovica Gazze, MIT, "Little Lead Soldiers: Lead Poisoning and Public Health"

    Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel, Dalhousie University (Nova Scotia), and Adriana Kugler, Georgetown University and NBER, "Intergenerational Persistence of Health in the U.S.: Do Immigrants Get Healthier as they Assimilate?" (NBER Working Paper No. 21987)

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CHEDs16/summary.html

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Education

The NBER's Program on Education met in Washington, D.C., on April 15. Program Director Caroline M. Hoxby of Stan-ford University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Eric S. Taylor, Harvard University, "Skills, Job Tasks, and Productivity in Teaching: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Instruction Practices"

    John Bound, University of Michigan and NBER; Breno Braga, Urban Institute; Gaurav Khanna, University of Michigan; and Sarah Turner, University of Virginia and NBER, "A Passage to America: University Funding and International Students"

    Brian G. Knight, Brown University and NBER, and Nathan M. Schiff, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, "The Out of State Tuition Distortion"

    Jason M. Lindo, Texas A&M University and NBER; Peter M. Siminski, University of Wollongong; and Isaac D. Swensen, Montana State University, "College Party Culture and Sexual Assault" (NBER Working Paper No. 21828)

    Jarod Apperson, Carycruz Bueno, and Tim Sass, Georgia State University, "Do the Cheated Ever Prosper? The Long-Run Effects of Test-Score Manipulation by Teachers on Student Outcomes"

    David J. Deming, Harvard University and NBER, "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market" (NBER Working Paper No. 21473)

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CHEDs16/summaryed.html

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Environmental and Energy Economics

The NBER's Program on Environmental and Energy Economics met in Cambridge on April 14–15. Research Associates Lawrence H. Goulder of Stanford University and Rema Hanna of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Solomon M. Hsiang, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, and Nitin Sekar, Princeton University, "A Global Experiment in Black Market Dynamics: The Effect of Legal Ivory Sales on Illegal Ivory Production"

    Kenneth Lee, University of California, Berkeley, and Edward Miguel and Catherine Wolfram, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER, "Experimental Evidence on the Demand for and Costs of Rural Electrification" (NBER Working Paper No. 22292)

    Joseph E. Aldy, Harvard University and NBER; Todd Gerarden, Harvard University; and Richard Sweeney, Boston College, "Capital versus Output Subsidies: Implications of Alternative Incentives for Wind Energy"

    Jun Yang, Beijing Transportation Research Center; Antung A. Liu, Indiana University; Ping Qin, Renmin University of China (Beijing); and Joshua Linn, Resources for the Future, "The Effect of Owning a Car on Travel Behavior: Evidence from the Beijing License Plate Lottery"

    Shaun McRae and Robyn Meeks, University of Michigan, "Price Perception and Electricity Demand with Nonlinear Tariffs"

    Robin Burgess, London School of Economics; Francisco J. M. Costa, Getúlio Vargas Foundation (Rio de Janeiro); and Benjamin A. Olken, MIT and NBER, "The Power of the State: National Borders and the Deforestation of the Amazon"

    Avraham Ebenstein, Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Michael Greenstone, University of Chicago and NBER; Maoyong Fan, Ball State University; Guojun He, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; and Maigeng Zhou, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, "The Impact of Sustained Exposure to Particulate Matter on Life Expectancy: New Evidence from China's Huai River Policy"

    Koichiro Ito, University of Chicago and NBER, and Shuang Zhang, University of Colorado, Boulder, "Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China"

    James B. Bushnell, University of California, Davis, and NBER; Stephen P. Holland, University of North Carolina at Greensboro and NBER; Jonathan E. Hughes, University of Colorado, Boulder; and Christopher R. Knittel, MIT and NBER, "Strategic Policy Choice in State-Level Regulation: The EPA's Clean Power Plan" (NBER Working Paper No. 21259)

    William A. Pizer, Duke University and NBER, and Brian C. Prest, Duke University, "Prices versus Quantities with Policy Updating"

    Frank A. Wolak, Stanford University and NBER, "Designing Nonlinear Price Schedules for Urban Water Utilities to Balance Revenue and Conservation Goals"

Summaries of these papers are at:
http://nber.org/confer/2016/EEEs16/summary.html

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Cohort Studies

The NBER's Working Group on Cohort Studies, directed by Dora Costa of the University of California, Los Angeles, met in Los Angeles on April 15–16. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Caleb Finch, University of Southern California, "Air Pollution in Brain Development and Aging"

    Diane Lauderdale, University of Chicago, "Are Americans Sleeping Less Than They Used To? Evidence for Adults and Adolescents"

    Pietro Biroli, University of Zurich, "Genetic and Economic Interaction in Health Formation: The Case of Obesity"

    Marcella Alsan, Stanford University and NBER, and Marianne H. Wanamaker, University of Tennessee and NBER, "Tuskegee and the Health of Black Men"

    Günther Fink, Harvard University; Atheendar Venkataramani, Massachusetts General Hospital; and Arianna Zanolini, Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, "Do It Well or Not at All? Malaria Control and Child Development in Zambia"

    Achyuta Adhvaryu, University of Michigan and NBER; Teresa Molina and Jorge A. Tamayo, University of Southern California; Anant Nyshadham, Boston College, "Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the Progresa Experiment"

    Sok Chul Hong, Seoul National University, and Jiwon Park, Sogang University (Seoul), "The Socioeconomic Gradient in the Inheritance of Longevity: A Study of American Genealogies"

    Adrian Adermon, Uppsala University; Mikael Lindahl, University of Gothenburg; and Mårten Palme, Stockholm University, "Dynastic Human Capital, Inequality, and Intergenerational Mobility"

    Leah Platt Boustan, University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER; Katherine Eriksson, University of California, Davis, and NBER; and Philipp Ager, University of Southern Denmark, "The Effect of Fathers' Wealth on Sons' Adult Outcomes in the Nineteenth Century: Evidence from the Civil War"

    Martha Bailey, University of Michigan and NBER, "Longitudinal, Intergenerational Family Electronic Microdata (LIFE-M) Project"

    Daniel W. Belsky, Avshalom Caspi, and Terrie Moffitt, Duke University, and Richie Poulton, University of Otago (New Zealand), "The Genetics of Success: How SNPs Associated with Educational Attainment Relate to Life-course Development"

    Natalie A. Rivadeneira, Emory University, and Andrew Noymer, University of California, Irvine, "'You've Come a Long Way, Baby': The Convergence in Age Patterns of Lung Cancer Mortality by Sex, United States, 1959–2013"

    Steven Lehrer, Queen's University and NBER; Hans-Martin von Gaudecker, University of Bonn; and Mårten Palme, Stockholm University, "Gender Differences in Health Sector Utilization: New Evidence from Exploring Variation across Cohorts and the Lifecycle in Sweden"

    Itzik Fadlon, University of California, San Diego, and NBER, and Torben Heien Nielsen, University of Copenhagen, "Intra-Household Dependencies in Health: Evidence from Spousal Mortality and Severe Health Shocks"

    Victor Lavy, University of Warwick and NBER; Analia Schlosser, Tel Aviv University; and Adi Shany, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, "Out of Africa: Human Capital Consequences of In Utero Conditions" (NBER Working Paper No. 21894)

    Andreas Georgiadis, University of Oxford, "The Sooner the Better but It's Never Too Late: The Impact of Nutrition at Different Periods of Childhood on Cognitive Development"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CSs16/summary.html

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Health Economics

The NBER's Program on Health Economics met in Cambridge on April 29. Program Director Michael Grossman of the City University of New York and Research Associate Theodore Joyce of Baruch College organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Dave Marcotte, American University, "Something in the Air? Pollution, Allergens and Children's Cognitive Functioning"

    Charles J. Courtemanche and Rusty Tchernis, Georgia State University and NBER, and Benjamin Ukert, Georgia State University, "The Effect of Smoking on Obesity: Evidence from a Randomized Trial" (NBER Working Paper No. 21937)

    Partha Deb, Hunter College and NBER, and Carmen Vargas, Hunter College, "Who Benefits from Calorie La-beling? An Analysis of its Effects on Body Mass" (NBER Working Paper No. 21992)

    Christopher J. Ruhm, University of Virginia and NBER, "Taking the Measure of a Fatal Drug Epidemic"

    Tom Chang, University of Southern California; Joshua S. Graff Zivin, University of California, San Diego, and NBER; and Tal Gross and Matthew J. Neidell, Columbia University and NBER, "The Effect of Pollution on Worker Productivity: Evidence from Call-Center Workers in China"

    Marianne Bitler, University of California, Davis, and NBER, and Christopher Carpenter, Vanderbilt University and NBER, "Effects of Direct Care Provision to the Uninsured: Evidence from Federal Breast and Cervical Cancer Programs"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/HEs16/summary.html

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Organizational Economics

The NBER's Working Group on Organizational Economics, directed by Robert S. Gibbons of MIT, met in Cambridge on May 13–14. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Johannes Hörner, Yale University, and Nicolas S. Lambert, Stanford University, "Motivational Ratings"

    Oriana Bandiera, London School of Economics; Stephen Hansen, Pompeu Fabra University (Barcelona); Andrea Prat, Columbia University; and Raffaella Sadun, Harvard University and NBER, "CEO Behavior and Firm Performance"

    Frederico Finan, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; Benjamin A. Olken, MIT and NBER; and Rohini Pande, Harvard University and NBER, "The Personnel Economics of the State" (NBER Working Paper No. 21825)

    Charles Sabel, Columbia University; Gary Herrigel, University of Chicago; and Peer Hull Kristensen, Copenhagen Business School, "Regulation under Uncertainty: The Coevolution of Industry and Regulation in the Norwegian Offshore Gas and Oil Industry"

    Daniel Carpenter, Harvard University, "Recruitment by Petition: American Antislavery, French Protestantism, English Suppression"

    Raymond Fisman, Boston University and NBER; Jing Shi, RMIT University (Melbourne); Yongxiang Wang, University of Southern California; and Rong Xu, Renmin University of China (Beijing), "Social Ties and Favoritism in Chinese Science"

    Ryan Bubb, New York University; Supreet Kaur, Columbia University and NBER; and Sendhil Mullainathan, Harvard University and NBER, "Do Enforcement Constraints Prevent Trade? Evidence on Contracting Failures in Irrigation Markets"

    Stefano DellaVigna and Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley, and NBER; John A. List, University of Chicago and NBER; and Gautam Rao, Harvard University and NBER, "Estimating Social Preferences and Gift Exchange at Work" (NBER Working Paper No. 22043)

    Karen Bernhardt-Walther, University of Toronto, "The First Time is Different: A Problem-Solving Approach to Innovation"

    Brett Green, University of California, Berkeley, and Curtis Taylor, Duke University, "Breakthroughs, Deadlines, and Self-Reported Progress: Contracting for Multistage Projects"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/OEs16/summary.html

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Chinese Economy

The NBER's Working Group on the Chinese Economy and the Chinese University of Hong Kong met in Shenzhen, China, on May 28–29. Director Hanming Fang of the University of Pennsylvania and Research Associates Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia University and Wei Xiong of Princeton University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

    Jiandong Ju, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Justin Lin, Peking University (Beijing); Qing Liu, Tsinghua University (Beijing); and Kang Shi, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "Excess Labor Supply, Structural Change, and Real Exchange Rate"

    Yong Wang and Juanyi Xu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and Xiaodong Zhu, University of Toronto, "Structural Change and the Dynamics of China-U.S. Real Exchange Rate"

    Chun Chang and Jingyi Zhang, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, "Reserve Requirements and Optimal Chinese Stabilization Policy"

    Cheng Chen, University of Hong Kong; Wei Tian, University of International Business and Economics (Beijing); and Miaojie Yu, Peking University (Beijing), "Outward FDI and Domestic Input Distortions: Evidence from Chinese Firms"

    Lin Ma, National University of Singapore, and Yang Tang, Nanyang Technological University (Singapore), "Rich and Unhappy: A Quantitative Analysis of Internal Trade and Migration in China"

    Ayşe İmrohoroğlu, University of Southern California, and Kai Zhao, University of Connecticut, "The Chinese Savings Rate: Productivity, Old-Age Support, and Demographics"

    Ziying Fan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; Wei Xiong; and Li-An Zhouv, Peking University (Beijing), "Information Distortion in Hierarchical Organizations: A Study of China's Great Famine"

    Yiming Cao, Boston University, and Shuo Chen, Fudan University (Shanghai), "Robin Hood on the Grand Canal: Economic Shock and Peasant Rebellions in Qing China, 1650–1911"

    Kaiji Chen and Jue Ren, Emory University, and Tao Zha, Emory University and NBER, "What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending" (NBER Working Paper No. 21890)

    Kinda Cheryl Hachem, University of Chicago and NBER, and Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "Liquidity Regulation and Unintended Financial Transformation in China" (NBER Working Paper No. 21880)

    David Ong and Yu Yang, Peking University (Beijing), and Junsen Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "Hard to Get: The Scarcity of Women and the Competition for High-Income Men in Chinese Cities"

    Di Guo and Chenggang Xu, University of Hong Kong; Kun Jiang, University of Roehampton (London); and Yutong Wang, University of California, Los Angeles, "Political Economy of Making an Authoritarian Constitution: The Case of China"

    Yi Huang, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva); Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund; and Gewei Wang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "How do Firms React to Minimum Wage Changes?"

    Jingting Fan and Weiming Zhu, University of Maryland; Lixin Tang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics; and Ben Zou, Michigan State University, "The Alibaba Effect: Spatial Consumption Inequality and the Welfare Gains from E-Commerce"

Summaries of these papers are at:
https://www.nber.org/confer/2016/CEs16/summary.html

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