NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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NBER Papers on Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program

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2020
w27528 Karl M. Aspelund
Michael C. Droste
James H. Stock
Christopher D. Walker

Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland
w27525 Shigeru Fujita
Giuseppe Moscarini
Fabien Postel-Vinay

Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation
w27521 Michael Woodford
Yinxi Xie

Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight
w27516 Jesse Rothstein
The Lost Generation? Labor Market Outcomes for Post Great Recession Entrants
w27503 Réka Juhász
Mara P. Squicciarini
Nico Voigtländer

Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France
w27488 Gilbert E. Metcalf
James H. Stock

The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes
w27486 Adrien Auclert
Bence Bardóczy
Matthew Rognlie

MPCs, MPEs and Multipliers: A Trilemma for New Keynesian Models
w27483 Daron Acemoglu
Ali Makhdoumi
Azarakhsh Malekian
Asuman Ozdaglar

Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing and the Spread of an Infection
w27482 Francis X. Diebold
Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Exiting the Great Recession and Entering the Pandemic Recession
w27481 Mark Gertler
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Andrea Prestipino

Credit Booms, Financial Crises and Macroprudential Policy
w27472 Maryam Farboodi
Péter Kondor

Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles
w27465 Andrew Atkeson
Magnus Irie

Understanding 100 Years of the Evolution of Top Wealth Shares in the U.S.: What is the Role of Family Firms?
w27464 Jennifer La'O
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Optimal Monetary Policy in Production Networks
w27461 Efraim Benmelech
Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis
w27455 Diego A. Comin
Ana Danieli
Martí Mestieri

Income-driven Labor Market Polarization
w27453 Martin M. Guzman
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Towards a Dynamic Disequilibrium Theory with Randomness
w27447 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Reviving the Salter-Swan Small Open Economy Model
w27446 Jennifer Bennett
Robert Kornfeld
Daniel Sichel
David Wasshausen

Measuring Infrastructure in BEA's National Economic Accounts
w27442 Martin Goetz
Luc Laeven
Ross Levine

Do Bank Insiders Impede Equity Issuances?
w27439 Julian Kozlowski
Laura Veldkamp
Venky Venkateswaran

Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19
w27434 Fernando E. Alvarez
Francesco Lippi
Aleksei Oskolkov

The Macroeconomics of Sticky Prices with Generalized Hazard Functions
w27432 Austan Goolsbee
Chad Syverson

Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020
w27431 Raj Chetty
John N. Friedman
Nathaniel Hendren
Michael Stepner
The Opportunity Insights Team

How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data
w27430 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models
w27428 Paolo Martellini
Guido Menzio
Ludo Visschers

Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment
w27425 Robert J. Gordon
Hassan Sayed

Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth
w27420 Mario J. Crucini
Mototsugu Shintani
Takayuki Tsuruga

A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
w27418 David Altig
Scott R. Baker
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Philip Bunn
Scarlet Chen
Steven J. Davis
Julia Leather
Brent H. Meyer
Emil Mihaylov
Paul Mizen
Nicholas B. Parker
Thomas Renault
Pawel Smietanka
Greg Thwaites

Economic Uncertainty Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
w27411 Viral V. Acharya
Soumya Bhadury
Jay Surti

Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets
w27406 Francesco Bianchi
Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma

Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
w27404 Michael König
Zheng Michael Song
Kjetil Storesletten
Fabrizio Zilibotti

From Imitation to Innovation: Where Is all that Chinese R&D Going?
w27399 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Michael Weber

Managing Households' Expectations with Unconventional Policies
w27398 Aniruddh Mohan
Nicholas Z. Muller
Akshay Thyagarajan
Randall V. Martin
Melanie S. Hammer
Aaron van Donkelaar

The Growth of Nations Revisited: Global Environmental Accounting from 1998 to 2018.
w27395 C. Justin Cook
Manisha Shah

Aggregate Effects from Public Works: Evidence from India
w27394 Hie Joo Ahn
James D. Hamilton

Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment
w27390 Rongsheng Tang
Yang Tang
Ping Wang

Within-Job Wage Inequality: Performance Pay and Job Relatedness
w27386 Roberto M. Billi
Jordi Galí

Gains from wage Flexibility and the Zero Lower Bound
w27385 Jordi Galí
Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy
w27384 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Does Policy Communication During Covid Work?
w27373 Glenn Ellison
Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19
w27367 Jules H. van Binsbergen
Duration-Based Stock Valuation
w27366 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Fiscal Policy and COVID19 Restrictions in a Demand-Determined Economy
w27363 Qiping Xu
Eric Zwick

Tax Policy and Abnormal Investment Behavior
w27355 Mahyar Kargar
Benjamin Lester
David Lindsay
Shuo Liu
Pierre-Olivier Weill
Diego Zúñiga

Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis
w27354 Pierre-Olivier Weill
The search theory of OTC markets
w27351 Diego Daruich
Raquel Fernández

Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Assessment
w27347 Javier Andrés
Óscar Arce
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Samuel Hurtado

Deciphering the Macroeconomic Effects of Internal Devaluations in a Monetary Union
w27345 Jonathan Heathcote
Fabrizio Perri
Giovanni L. Violante

The Rise of US Earnings Inequality: Does the Cycle Drive the Trend?
w27342 Ralph S. J. Koijen
Motohiro Yogo

Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
w27340 Robert E. Hall
Charles I. Jones
Peter J. Klenow

Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths
w27339 Jonathan S. Hartley
Alessandro Rebucci

An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies
w27335 Andrew Atkeson
Karen Kopecky
Tao Zha

Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model
w27332 Takeo Hoshi
Anil K Kashyap

The Great Disconnect: The Decoupling of Wage and Price Inflation in Japan
w27331 Matthias Doepke
Ruben Gaetani

Why Didn't the College Premium Rise Everywhere? Employment Protection and On-the-Job Investment in Skills
w27330 Dimitris Papanikolaou
Lawrence D.W. Schmidt

Working Remotely and the Supply-side Impact of Covid-19
w27323 Javier Bianchi
César Sosa-Padilla

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization, and Sovereign Risk
w27317 Philippe Andrade
Olivier Coibion
Erwan Gautier
Yuriy Gorodnichenko

No Firm is an Island? How Industry Conditions Shape Firms' Aggregate Expectations
w27313 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets
w27308 George-Marios Angeletos
Zhen Huo
Karthik A. Sastry

Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory
w27303 Ezra Oberfield
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Nicholas Trachter

Plants in Space
w27300 Giulia Brancaccio
Myrto Kalouptsidi
Theodore Papageorgiou
Nicola Rosaia

Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transportation Markets
w27299 Theresa Kuchler
Yan Li
Lin Peng
Johannes Stroebel
Dexin Zhou

Social Proximity to Capital: Implications for Investors and Firms
w27295 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

Wall Street vs. Main Street QE
w27281 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27278 Yunfang Hu
Takuma Kunieda
Kazuo Nishimura
Ping Wang

Flying or Trapped?
w27275 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets
w27273 Titan M. Alon
Minki Kim
David Lagakos
Mitchell VanVuren

How Should Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic Differ in the Developing World?
w27272 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Inside the Mind of a Stock Market Crash
w27266 Yan Liu
Jing Cynthia Wu

Reconstructing the Yield Curve
w27264 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

COVID-19 Doesn't Need Lockdowns to Destroy Jobs: The Effect of Local Outbreaks in Korea
w27258 Yifei Wang
Toni M. Whited
Yufeng Wu
Kairong Xiao

Bank Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Structural Estimation
w27253 Ross Levine
Chen Lin
Lai Wei
Wensi Xie

Competition Laws and Corporate Innovation
w27248 Laura Liu
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
w27244 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi
Michael J. Mina
James H. Stock

Reopening Scenarios
w27234 Robert E. Hall
Marianna Kudlyak

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?
w27232 Varadarajan V. Chari
Rishabh Kirpalani
Christopher Phelan

The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics
w27230 Yongheng Deng
Yang Tang
Ping Wang
Jing Wu

Spatial Misallocation in Chinese Housing and Land Markets
w27228 Luis Felipe Céspedes
Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

The Macroeconomics of a Pandemic: A Minimalist Model
w27224 Barthélémy Bonadio
Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
w27221 Viral V. Acharya
Raghuram Rajan
Jack Shim

When is Debt Odious? A Theory of Repression and Growth Traps
w27220 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

The Cost of Privacy: Welfare Effect of the Disclosure of COVID-19 Cases
w27216 Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel
Joseph S. Vavra

US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic
w27214 Kaiji Chen
Patrick C. Higgins
Tao Zha

Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
w27207 Vadim Elenev
Tim Landvoigt
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy?
w27193 Anna Stansbury
Lawrence H. Summers

The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy
w27192 Apoorv Gupta
Jacopo Ponticelli
Andrea Tesei

Information, Technology Adoption and Productivity: The Role of Mobile Phones in Agriculture
w27184 Marcela Eslava
John C. Haltiwanger

The Life-cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges
w27182 Evan M. Munro
Serena Ng

Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations
w27179 Guillermo Ordoñez
Facundo Piguillem

Savings and Saving Rates: Up or Down?
w27168 Valentin Haddad
Alan Moreira
Tyler Muir

When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed's Response
w27167 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Stephen J. Terry

Using Disasters to Estimate the Impact of Uncertainty
w27159 Tomaz Cajner
Leland D. Crane
Ryan A. Decker
John Grigsby
Adrian Hamins-Puertolas
Erik Hurst
Christopher Kurz
Ahu Yildirmaz

The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession
w27158 Viral V. Acharya
Matteo Crosignani
Tim Eisert
Christian Eufinger

Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
w27152 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis
w27149 Daron Acemoglu
Asuman Ozdaglar
James Siderius
Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi

Systemic Credit Freezes in Financial Lending Networks
w27141 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
w27140 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Entry vs. Rents
w27139 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Darwinian Returns to Scale
w27137 Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis

COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock
w27134 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Nora Lamersdorf
Farzad Saidi

Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity
w27131 Annette Alstadsæter
Bernt Bratsberg
Gaute Eielsen
Wojciech Kopczuk
Simen Markussen
Oddbjorn Raaum
Knut Røed

The First Weeks of the Coronavirus Crisis: Who Got Hit, When and Why? Evidence from Norway
w27128 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Charles I. Jones

Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities
w27122 Nir Jaimovich
Itay Saporta-Eksten
Henry E. Siu
Yaniv Yedid-Levi

The Macroeconomics of Automation: Data, Theory, and Policy Analysis
w27121 Robert S. Pindyck
COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion
w27118 Saki Bigio
Mengbo Zhang
Eduardo Zilberman

Transfers vs Credit Policy: Macroeconomic Policy Trade-offs during Covid-19
w27116 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Sebastian A. Merkel
Yuliy Sannikov

The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble
w27115 George J. Hall
Thomas J. Sargent

Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections
w27113 Kyriakos T. Chousakos
Gary B. Gorton
Guillermo Ordoñez

The Macroprudential Role of Stock Markets
w27112 Francesco Bianchi
Renato Faccini
Leonardo Melosi

Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Times of Large Debt: Unity is Strength
w27109 Ufuk Akcigit
Stefanie Stantcheva

Taxation and Innovation: What Do We Know?
w27105 Victoria Gregory
Guido Menzio
David G. Wiczer

Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped?
w27104 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining
w27102 Daron Acemoglu
Victor Chernozhukov
Iván Werning
Michael D. Whinston

Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model
w27100 Sangmin Aum
Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee
Yongseok Shin

Inequality of Fear and Self-Quarantine: Is There a Trade-off between GDP and Public Health?
w27097 Scott R. Baker
R. A. Farrokhnia
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel
Constantine Yannelis

Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments
w27088 Arvind Krishnamurthy
Wenhao Li

Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment
w27085 Simon Mongey
Laura Pilossoph
Alex Weinberg

Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?
w27081 Stephie Fried
David Lagakos

Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach
w27075 Konrad B. Burchardi
Thomas Chaney
Tarek Alexander Hassan
Lisa Tarquinio
Stephen J. Terry

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth
w27064 Christoph E. Boehm
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities
w27063 Adriano A. Rampini
Sequential Lifting of COVID-19 Interventions with Population Heterogeneity
w27062 Christian A. Moser
Pierre Yared

Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment
w27060 Casey B. Mulligan
Economic Activity and the Value of Medical Innovation during a Pandemic
w27059 Maryam Farboodi
Gregor Jarosch
Robert Shimer

Internal and External Effects of Social Distancing in a Pandemic
w27052 Daron Acemoglu
Andrea Manera
Pascual Restrepo

Does the US Tax Code Favor Automation?
w27049 Robert J. Barro
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities during the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919
w27047 Dirk Krueger
Harald Uhlig
Taojun Xie

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic
w27046 Andrew Glover
Jonathan Heathcote
Dirk Krueger
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Controlling a Pandemic
w27044 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

A Model of Asset Price Spirals and Aggregate Demand Amplification of a "Covid-19" Shock
w27039 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries
w27034 Lydia Cox
Gernot Müller
Ernesto Pastén
Raphael Schoenle
Michael Weber

Big G
w27031 Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman
Ezra Oberfield
Thomas Sampson

Endogenous Education and Long-Run Factor Shares
w27024 Stefan Steinerberger
Aleh Tsyvinski

On Vickrey's Income Averaging
w27020 Roberto Chang
Andrés Velasco

Economic Policy Incentives to Preserve Lives and Livelihoods
w27019 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Ken Teoh
Martín Uribe

Covid-19: Testing Inequality in New York City
w27017 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Labor Markets During the COVID-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
w27015 Peter J. Klenow
Huiyu Li

Innovative Growth Accounting
w27014 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Advances in Structural Vector Autoregressions with Imperfect Identifying Information
w27013 Michael D. Bauer
Eric T. Swanson

The Fed's Response to Economic News Explains the "Fed Information Effect"
w27010 Mark Garmaise
Yaron Levi
Hanno Lustig

Spending Less After (Seemingly) Bad News
w27009 Zachary A. Bethune
Anton Korinek

Covid-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods
w27004 Marco Bassetto
Thomas J. Sargent

Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy
w27003 Marco Del Negro
Michele Lenza
Giorgio E. Primiceri
Andrea Tambalotti

What's up with the Phillips Curve?
w27002 Steve Bond
Arshia Hashemi
Greg Kaplan
Piotr Zoch

Some Unpleasant Markup Arithmetic: Production Function Elasticities and their Estimation from Production Data
w27001 Christiane Baumeister
Dimitris Korobilis
Thomas K. Lee

Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions
w26996 Dennis Fixler
Marina Gindelsky
David Johnson

Distributing Personal Income: Trends Over Time
w26990 Theresa Kuchler
Dominic Russel
Johannes Stroebel

The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook
w26987 Sydney C. Ludvigson
Sai Ma
Serena Ng

Covid19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters
w26985 Luigi Bocola
Guido Lorenzoni

Risk Sharing Externalities
w26984 Callum J. Jones
Thomas Philippon
Venky Venkateswaran

Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home
w26983 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Stephen J. Terry

COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty
w26981 Fernando E. Alvarez
David Argente
Francesco Lippi

A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown
w26974 Stavros Panageas
The Implications of Heterogeneity and Inequality for Asset Pricing
w26973 Christopher Busch
Dirk Krueger
Alexander Ludwig
Irina Popova
Zainab Iftikhar

Should Germany Have Built a New Wall? Macroeconomic Lessons from the 2015-18 Refugee Wave
w26972 Fabian Lange
Theodore Papageorgiou

Beyond Cobb-Douglas: Flexibly Estimating Matching Functions with Unobserved Matching Efficiency
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26965 Andrew Atkeson
How Deadly Is COVID-19? Understanding The Difficulties With Estimation Of Its Fatality Rate
w26964 Leonid Kogan
Dimitris Papanikolaou
Lawrence D. W. Schmidt
Jae Song

Technological Innovation and Labor Income Risk
w26962 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
w26960 Michael Bailey
Abhinav Gupta
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Theresa Kuchler
Robert J. Richmond
Johannes Stroebel

International Trade and Social Connectedness
w26954 Daniel Lewis
Karel Mertens
James H. Stock

U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak
w26949 Scott R. Baker
R.A. Farrokhnia
Steffen Meyer
Michaela Pagel
Constantine Yannelis

How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic
w26948 Jonathan I. Dingel
Brent Neiman

How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?
w26947 Titan M. Alon
Matthias Doepke
Jane Olmstead-Rumsey
Michèle Tertilt

The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality
w26945 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Kyle J. Kost
Marco C. Sammon
Tasaneeya Viratyosin

The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19
w26943 Joseph Kopecky
Alan M. Taylor

The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium
w26941 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt
w26940 Atif R. Mian
Ludwig Straub
Amir Sufi

Indebted Demand
w26939 James S. Cloyne
Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Decomposing the Fiscal Multiplier
w26935 Gianluca Benigno
Andrew Foerster
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach
w26934 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

Longer-run Economic Consequences of Pandemics
w26922 Giovanni Dosi
Mauro Napoletano
Andrea Roventini
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Tania Treibich

Rational Heuristics? Expectations and Behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents
w26921 Philippe Aghion
Roland Bénabou
Ralf Martin
Alexandra Roulet

Environmental Preferences and Technological Choices: Is Market Competition Clean or Dirty?
w26918 Veronica Guerrieri
Guido Lorenzoni
Ludwig Straub
Iván Werning

Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?
w26908 Matthew Baron
Emil Verner
Wei Xiong

Banking Crises without Panics
w26907 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Learning about the Neighborhood
w26902 James H. Stock
Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus
w26901 David W. Berger
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Simon Mongey

An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine
w26898 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

An Analytic Framework For Interpreting Investment Regressions In The Presence Of Financial Constraints
w26894 Anna Cieslak
Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

The Economics of the Fed Put
w26891 Andres Drenik
Simon Jäger
Miguel Pascuel Plotkin
Benjamin Schoefer

Paying Outsourced Labor: Direct Evidence from Linked Temp Agency-Worker-Client Data
w26890 David Atkin
Benjamin Faber
Thibault Fally
Marco Gonzalez-Navarro

A New Engel on Price Index and Welfare Estimation
w26882 Martin S. Eichenbaum
Sergio Rebelo
Mathias Trabandt

The Macroeconomics of Epidemics
w26881 Adam Guren
Alisdair McKay
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?
w26878 Per Krusell
Toshihiko Mukoyama
Richard Rogerson
Ayşegül Şahin

Gross Worker Flows and Fluctuations in the Aggregate Labor Market
w26872 Michael McCracken
Serena Ng

FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research
w26868 David Lagakos
Samuel Marshall
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Corey Vernot
Michael E. Waugh

Migration Costs and Observational Returns to Migration in the Developing World
w26867 Andrew Atkeson
What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios
w26866 Robert J. Barro
José F. Ursúa
Joanna Weng

The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
w26857 Robert J. Shiller
Popular Economic Narratives Advancing the Longest U.S. Economic Expansion 2009-2019
w26856 Charles W. Calomiris
Harry Mamaysky
Ruoke Yang

Measuring the Cost of Regulation: A Text-Based Approach
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26852 R. Jason Faberman
Andreas I. Mueller
Ayşegül Şahin
Giorgio Topa

The Shadow Margins of Labor Market Slack
w26838 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Rising Bank Concentration
w26837 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Michael Weber

Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap
w26830 Yueran Ma
Tiziano Ropele
David Sraer
David Thesmar

A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts
w26829 Christoph Boehm
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Convex Supply Curves
w26828 Daniel Chen
Darrell Duffie

Market Fragmentation
w26826 Michael D. Cai
Marco Del Negro
Edward P. Herbst
Ethan Matlin
Reca Sarfati
Frank Schorfheide

Online Estimation of DSGE Models
w26820 Peter Bednarek
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Chang Ma
Alessandro Rebucci

Capital Flows, Real Estate, and Local Cycles: Evidence from German Cities, Banks, and Firms
w26817 Francesco D’Acunto
Thomas Rauter
Christoph K. Scheuch
Michael Weber

Perceived Precautionary Savings Motives: Evidence from FinTech
w26810 Isaac Ehrlich
Yun Pei

Human Capital as Engine of Growth - The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth Within and Across Countries
w26803 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement
w26800 Greg Kaplan
Piotr Zoch

Markups, Labor Market Inequality and the Nature of Work
w26796 Jordi Galí
Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations
w26791 Narayana R. Kocherlakota
21st Century Macro
w26786 John C. Haltiwanger
James R. Spletzer

Between Firm Changes in Earnings Inequality: The Dominant Role of Industry Effects
w26778 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Forward Guidance and Household Expectations
w26771 Benjamin M. Hébert
Jennifer La'O

Information Acquisition, Efficiency, and Non-Fundamental Volatility
w26770 Fabian Eckert
Andrés Gvirtz
Jack Liang
Michael Peters

A Method to Construct Geographical Crosswalks with an Application to US Counties since 1790
w26768 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana

Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research
w26756 Ricardo Lagos
Shengxing Zhang

The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money as a Latent Medium of Exchange
w26753 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Daniel Sanches
Linda Schilling
Harald Uhlig

Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Banking For All?
w26750 Robert J. Hodrick
An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data
w26745 John H. Cochrane
A Fiscal Theory of Monetary Policy with Partially-Repaid Long-Term Debt
w26740 Matteo Leombroni
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider
Ciaran Rogers

Inflation and the Price of Real Assets
w26738 Daron Acemoglu
Claire LeLarge
Pascual Restrepo

Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France
w26723 Lawrence J. Christiano
Martin S. Eichenbaum
Mathias Trabandt

Why is Unemployment so Countercyclical?
w26722 Alexander Bick
Adam Blandin
Richard Rogerson

Hours and Wages
w26721 Sebastian Di Tella
Robert E. Hall

Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations
w26711 Mark Bils
Peter J. Klenow
Cian Ruane

Misallocation or Mismeasurement?
w26704 Stefanie Stantcheva
Dynamic Taxation
w26702 N. Gregory Mankiw
The Past and Future of Econ 101: The John R. Commons Award Lecture
w26699 Oded Galor
Ömer Özak
Assaf Sarid

Linguistic Traits and Human Capital Formation
w26694 Raven Molloy
Christopher Smith
Abigail K. Wozniak

Changing Stability in U.S. Employment Relationships: A Tale of Two Tails
w26686 Timothy J. Besley
Isabelle A. Roland
John Van Reenen

The Aggregate Consequences of Default Risk: Evidence from Firm-level Data
w26681 Daron Acemoglu
Pascual Restrepo

Unpacking Skill Bias: Automation and New Tasks
w26672 David Romer
In Praise of Confidence Intervals
w26671 Cristina Arellano
Yan Bai
Gabriel P. Mihalache

Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)
w26667 Harold L. Cole
Dirk Krueger
George J. Mailath
Yena Park

Coalition-Proof Risk Sharing Under Frictions
w26666 Òscar Jordà
Sanjay R. Singh
Alan M. Taylor

The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy
w26665 Serguey Braguinsky
Atsushi Ohyama
Tetsuji Okazaki
Chad Syverson

Product Innovation, Product Diversification, and Firm Growth: Evidence from Japan's Early Industrialization
w26661 Seema Jayachandran
Microentrepreneurship in Developing Countries
w26655 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Effects of Fiscal Policy on Credit Markets
w26654 Antoine Camous
Russell Cooper

Political Activism and the Provision of Dynamic Incentives
w26651 Charles I. Jones
The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population
w26650 N. Gregory Mankiw
A Skeptic's Guide to Modern Monetary Theory
w26648 Leland Bybee
Bryan T. Kelly
Asaf Manela
Dacheng Xiu

The Structure of Economic News
w26647 Adrien Auclert
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in an Estimated HANK Model
w26643 Mark A. Aguiar
Mark Bils
Corina Boar

Who Are the Hand-to-Mouth?
w26637 Efraim Benmelech
Nitish Kumar
Raghuram Rajan

The Decline of Secured Debt
w26635 Corina Boar
Dynastic Precautionary Savings
w26630 Jiri Slacalek
Oreste Tristani
Giovanni L. Violante

Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area
w26628 Andrew B. Abel
Stavros Panageas

Precautionary Saving in a Financially-Constrained Firm
w26625 Rodrigo Adão
Martin Beraja
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Technological Transitions with Skill Heterogeneity Across Generations
w26613 Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé
Martín Uribe

Deterministic Debt Cycles in Open Economies with Flow Collateral Constraints
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
w26607 Nicolae B. Gârleanu
Stavros Panageas

Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: A Different Approach
w26606 Christiane Baumeister
James D. Hamilton

Drawing Conclusions from Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified on the Basis of Sign Restrictions
w26603 Cailin R. Slattery
Owen M. Zidar

Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives
2019
w26594 Richard Hornbeck
Martin Rotemberg

Railroads, Reallocation, and the Rise of American Manufacturing
w26593 Ulrich K. Müller
James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth Dynamics
w26588 Andreas Fagereng
Martin Blomhoff Holm
Benjamin Moll
Gisle Natvik

Saving Behavior Across the Wealth Distribution: The Importance of Capital Gains
w26583 Zhengyang Jiang
Hanno Lustig
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Mindy Z. Xiaolan

The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle
w26580 Patrick J. Kehoe
Pierlauro Lopez
Virgiliu Midrigan
Elena Pastorino

Asset Prices and Unemployment Fluctuations
w26569 Laura Liu
Hyungsik Roger Moon
Frank Schorfheide

Forecasting with a Panel Tobit Model
w26565 Sergio Salgado
Fatih Guvenen
Nicholas Bloom

Skewed Business Cycles
w26561 Saki Bigio
Adrien d'Avernas

Financial Risk Capacity
w26560 Josh Davis
Cristian Fuenzalida
Alan M. Taylor

The Natural Rate Puzzle: Global Macro Trends and the Market-Implied r*
w26558 Alessandro Rebucci
Chang Ma

Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature
w26557 Roger Farmer
The Importance of Beliefs in Shaping Macroeconomic Outcomes
w26554 Alexander Bick
Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln
David Lagakos
Hitoshi Tsujiyama

Why are Average Hours Worked Lower in Richer Countries?
w26548 German Cubas
Chinhui Juhn
Pedro Silos

Coordinated Work Schedules and the Gender Wage Gap
w26547 Adrien G. Bilal
Niklas Engbom
Simon Mongey
Giovanni L. Violante

Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market
w26538 Lu Zhang
Q-factors and Investment CAPM
w26535 John H. Cochrane
Rethinking Production Under Uncertainty
w26526 Marius Brülhart
Klaus Desmet
Gian-Paolo Klinke

The Shrinking Advantage of Market Potential
w26520 Hui Chen
Zhuo Chen
Zhiguo He
Jinyu Liu
Rengming Xie

Pledgeability and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Markets
w26519 Simon Jäger
Benjamin Schoefer
Jörg Heining

Labor in the Boardroom
w26507 Christian vom Lehn
Thomas Winberry

The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle
w26501 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Regional Data in Macroeconomics: Some Advice for Practitioners
w26477 Paul Gaggl
Rowena Gray
Ioana Marinescu
Miguel Morin

Does Electricity Drive Structural Transformation? Evidence from the United States
w26474 Pascal Michaillat
Emmanuel Saez

Beveridgean Unemployment Gap
w26470 Wen-Tai Hsu
Raymond G. Riezman
Ping Wang

Innovation, Growth, and Dynamic Gains from Trade
w26468 Ching-mu Chen
Wan-Jung Cheng
Shin-Kun Peng
Raymond Riezman
Ping Wang

Trade Wars, Technology and Productivity
w26466 Chunzan Wu
Dirk Krueger

Consumption Insurance Against Wage Risk: Family Labor Supply and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation
w26464 Yang You
Kenneth S. Rogoff

Redeemable Platform Currencies
w26461 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Peter J. Klenow
Ishan B. Nath

A Global View of Creative Destruction
w26457 Zhenyu Gao
Michael Sockin
Wei Xiong

Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation
w26451 Alessandro Dovis
Rishabh Kirpalani

Rules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives
w26450 Laurence M. Ball
Sandeep Mazumder

A Phillips Curve for the Euro Area
w26448 Philippe Aghion
Antonin Bergeaud
Timo Boppart
Peter J. Klenow
Huiyu Li

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents
w26446 Kenichi Ueda
Somnath Sharma

Listing Advantages Around the World
w26435 Josh Davis
Alan M. Taylor

The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns
w26427 Carlos Garriga
Finn E. Kydland
Roman Šustek

MoNK: Mortgages in a New-Keynesian Model
w26425 Chao Fu
Shoya Ishimaru
John Kennan

Government Expenditure on the Public Education System
w26413 George-Marios Angeletos
Karthik Sastry

Inattentive Economies
w26410 Jeremy Greenwood
Nezih Guner
Karen A. Kopecky

The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage
w26405 Henrik Kleven
The EITC and the Extensive Margin: A Reappraisal
w26402 Sergio de Ferra
Kurt Mitman
Federica Romei

Household Heterogeneity and the Transmission of Foreign Shocks
w26397 Gianluca Benigno
Huigang Chen
Christopher Otrok
Alessandro Rebucci
Eric R. Young

Optimal Policy for Macro-Financial Stability
w26396 Alberto Cavallo
Gita Gopinath
Brent Neiman
Jenny Tang

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy
w26391 Emmanuel Saez
Benjamin Schoefer
David Seim

Hysteresis from Employer Subsidies
w26378 C. Y. Kelvin Yuen
Ping Wang

Minimum Wage in a Multi-Tier Search and Wage-Posting Model with Cross-Market Substitutions
w26372 Hang Bai
Erica X.N. Li
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Does Costly Reversibility Matter for U.S. Public Firms?
w26365 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Macroeconomic Frameworks
w26359 Marek Kapička
Finn Kydland
Carlos Zarazaga

Exploring The Role of Limited Commitment Constraints in Argentina's "Missing Capital"
w26336 Zhao Chen
Xian Jiang
Zhikuo Liu
Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato
Daniel Xu

Tax Policy and Lumpy Investment Behavior: Evidence from China's VAT Reform
w26353 Michael E. Waugh
The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War
w26351 Stéphane Dupraz
Emi Nakamura
Jón Steinsson

A Plucking Model of Business Cycles
w26348 Carolyn Sloane
Erik Hurst
Dan Black

A Cross-Cohort Analysis of Human Capital Specialization and the College Gender Wage Gap
w26340 Antoine Arnoud
Fatih Guvenen
Tatjana Kleineberg

Benchmarking Global Optimizers
w26337 Guillermo Ordoñez
Facundo Piguillem

Retirement in the Shadow (Banking)
w26331 Fernando M. Aragon Sanchez
Diego Restuccia
Juan Pablo Rud

Are Small Farms Really more Productive than Large Farms?
w26327 Javier Cravino
Andrei A. Levchenko
Marco Rojas

Population Aging and Structural Transformation
w26324 John V. Leahy
Aditi Thapar

Demographic Effects on the Impact of Monetary Policy
w26318 William Easterly
In Search of Reforms for Growth: New Stylized Facts on Policy and Growth Outcomes
w26308 Francesco Bianchi
Thilo Kind
Howard Kung

Threats to Central Bank Independence: High-Frequency Identification with Twitter
w26307 Javier Bianchi
Pablo Ottonello
Ignacio Presno

Fiscal Stimulus under Sovereign Risk
w26302 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Samuel Hurtado
Galo Nuño

Financial Frictions and the Wealth Distribution
w26301 Job Boerma
Loukas Karabarbounis

Labor Market Trends and the Changing Value of Time
w26297 Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan
U.S. Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers
w26296 Daron Acemoglu
Ali Makhdoumi
Azarakhsh Malekian
Asuman Ozdaglar

Too Much Data: Prices and Inefficiencies in Data Markets
w26290 Carolin Pflueger
Emil Siriwardane
Adi Sunderam

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
w26284 Fatih Guvenen
Gueorgui Kambourov
Burhanettin Kuruscu
Sergio Ocampo-Diaz
Daphne Chen

Use It or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation
w26281 Richard Blundell
Ran Gu
Søren Leth-Petersen
Hamish Low
Costas Meghir

Durables and Lemons: Private Information and the Market for Cars
w26279 Francesco Bianchi
Leonardo Melosi
Matthias Rottner

Hitting the Elusive Inflation Target
w26267 Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Felipe Schwartzman

Cognitive Hubs and Spatial Redistribution
w26262 Òscar Jordà
Alan M. Taylor

Riders on the Storm
w26260 Charles I. Jones
Christopher Tonetti

Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data
w26253 Aditya Aladangady
Shifrah Aron-Dine
Wendy Dunn
Laura Feiveson
Paul Lengermann
Claudia Sahm

From Transactions Data to Economic Statistics: Constructing Real-time, High-frequency, Geographic Measures of Consumer Spending
w26249 Jordi Galí
The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus
w26248 Ravi Bansal
Mariano Max Croce
Wenxi Liao
Samuel Rosen

Uncertainty-Induced Reallocations and Growth
w26243 Steven J. Davis
Rising Policy Uncertainty
w26239 Gregor Jarosch
Jan Sebastian Nimczik
Isaac Sorkin

Granular Search, Market Structure, and Wages
w26237 Francesco D’Acunto
Ulrike Malmendier
Juan Ospina
Michael Weber

Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations
w26236 Fernando Arce
Julien Bengui
Javier Bianchi

A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation
w26231 Simon Mongey
Giovanni L. Violante

Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data
w26229 Markus K. Brunnermeier
Ricardo Reis

A Crash Course on the Euro Crisis
w26216 Adam M. Guren
Timothy J. McQuade

How Do Foreclosures Exacerbate Housing Downturns?
w26212 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

Entry, Trade, and Exporting over the Cycle
w26210 Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Federico Mandelman
Yang Yu
Francesco Zanetti

Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy
w26198 Łukasz Rachel
Lawrence H. Summers

On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World
w26196 Ufuk Akcigit
Emin Dinlersoz
Jeremy Greenwood
Veronika Penciakova

Synergizing Ventures
w26181 Kjetil Storesletten
Bo Zhao
Fabrizio Zilibotti

Business Cycle during Structural Change: Arthur Lewis' Theory from a Neoclassical Perspective.
w26175 Alisdair McKay
Johannes F. Wieland

Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy
w26167 Matthew E. Kahn
Kamiar Mohaddes
Ryan N.C. Ng
M. Hashem Pesaran
Mehdi Raissi
Jui-Chung Yang

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
w26165 Stefania Albanesi
Domonkos F. Vamossy

Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach
w26154 Joao Guerreiro
Sergio Rebelo
Pedro Teles

What is the Optimal Immigration Policy? Migration, Jobs and Welfare
w26143 Alessandra Fogli
Veronica Guerrieri

The End of the American Dream? Inequality and Segregation in US Cities
w26142 Victor Couture
Cecile Gaubert
Jessie Handbury
Erik Hurst

Income Growth and the Distributional Effects of Urban Spatial Sorting
w26141 Jaume Ventura
Sharing a Government
w26136 Gilbert Cette
Lorraine Koehl
Thomas Philippon

Labor Shares in Some Advanced Economies
w26134 Brent Neiman
Joseph S. Vavra

The Rise of Niche Consumption
w26131 Christopher D. Carroll
Jiri Slacalek
Martin Sommer

Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects
w26123 Adrien Auclert
Bence Bardóczy
Matthew Rognlie
Ludwig Straub

Using the Sequence-Space Jacobian to Solve and Estimate Heterogeneous-Agent Models
w26117 Ruediger Bachmann
Gabriel Ehrlich
Ying Fan
Dimitrije Ruzic

Firms and Collective Reputation: a Study of the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal
w26116 Gabriel Ehrlich
John Haltiwanger
Ron Jarmin
David Johnson
Matthew D. Shapiro

Re-engineering Key National Economic Indicators
w26108 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Networks, Barriers, and Trade
w26106 Olivier Coibion
Dimitris Georgarakos
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Maarten van Rooij

How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial
w26102 Moritz Lenel
Monika Piazzesi
Martin Schneider

The Short Rate Disconnect in a Monetary Economy
w26090 John H. Cochrane
The Value of Government Debt
w26087 Pamela Giustinelli
Matthew D. Shapiro

SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement
w26076 Cristina Arellano
Xavier Mateos-Planas
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

Partial Default
w26074 Tri Vi Dang
Gary B. Gorton
Bengt R. Holmstrom

The Information View of Financial Crises
w26071 Christopher L. House
Christian Proebsting
Linda L. Tesar

Regional Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations
w26067 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

The Four Equation New Keynesian Model
w26063 Anmol Bhandari
Serdar Birinci
Ellen McGrattan
Kurt See

What Do Survey Data Tell Us about US Businesses?
w26060 Kewei Hou
Haitao Mo
Chen Xue
Lu Zhang

Security Analysis: An Investment Perspective
w26057 Susanto Basu
Are Price-Cost Markups Rising in the United States? A Discussion of the Evidence
w26053 Lilia Maliar
John B. Taylor

Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?
w26046 Andrew Lilley
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Exchange Rate Reconnect
w26040 Eric R. Sims
Jing Cynthia Wu

Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future
w26033 Tomaz Cajner
Leland D. Crane
Ryan A. Decker
Adrian Hamins-Puertolas
Christopher Kurz

Improving the Accuracy of Economic Measurement with Multiple Data Sources: The Case of Payroll Employment Data
w26032 David W. Berger
Luigi Bocola
Alessandro Dovis

Imperfect Risk-Sharing and the Business Cycle
w26031 Ricardo J. Caballero
Gunes Kamber

On the Global Impact of Risk-off Shocks and Policy-put Frameworks
w26029 Michael Bailey
Patrick Farrell
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel

Social Connectedness in Urban Areas
w26026 Joseba Martinez
Thomas Philippon
Markus Sihvonen

Does a Currency Union Need a Capital Market Union? Risk Sharing via Banks and Markets
w26019 Michael J. Pries
Richard Rogerson

Declining Worker Turnover: the Role of Short Duration Employment Spells
w26003 David E. Bloom
David Canning
Rainer Kotschy
Klaus Prettner
Johannes J. Schünemann

Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence
w26000 Juan Carlos Conesa
Timothy J. Kehoe
Vegard M. Nygaard
Gajendran Raveendranathan

Implications of Increasing College Attainment for Aging in General Equilibrium
w25999 Dimitris Christelis
Dimitris Georgarakos
Tullio Jappelli
Luigi Pistaferri
Maarten van Rooij

Wealth Shocks and MPC Heterogeneity
w25998 Pedro Bento
Diego Restuccia

The Role of Nonemployers in Business Dynamism and Aggregate Productivity
w25992 Federico Droller
Martin Fiszbein

Staple Products, Linkages, and Development: Evidence from Argentina
w25987 James H. Stock
Mark W. Watson

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation
w25977 Ricardo J. Caballero
Alp Simsek

Prudential Monetary Policy
w25968 Chang-Tai Hsieh
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

The Industrial Revolution in Services
w25965 George A. Alessandria
Shafaat Y. Khan
Armen Khederlarian

Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China's Pre-WTO Accession
w25959 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Plamen T. Nenov
Alp Simsek

Stock Market Wealth and the Real Economy: A Local Labor Market Approach
w25956 David Altig
Jose Maria Barrero
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Brent H. Meyer
Nicholas Parker

Surveying Business Uncertainty
w25952 Corina Boar
Virgiliu Midrigan

Markups and Inequality
w25931 Nir Jaimovich
Sergio Rebelo
Arlene Wong
Miao Ben Zhang

Trading Up and the Skill Premium
w25930 Richard K. Crump
Stefano Eusepi
Marc Giannoni
Ayşegül Şahin

A Unified Approach to Measuring u*
w25927 Douglas A. Irwin
Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence
w25923 Matthias Kehrig
Nicolas Vincent

Good Dispersion, Bad Dispersion
w25906 Jack Favilukis
Pierre Mabille
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Affordable Housing and City Welfare
w25900 Gabriel Chodorow-Reich
Loukas Karabarbounis
Rohan Kekre

The Macroeconomics of the Greek Depression
w25899 Rishab Guha
Serena Ng

A Machine Learning Analysis of Seasonal and Cyclical Sales in Weekly Scanner Data
w25887 Jérôme Dugast
Semih Üslü
Pierre-Olivier Weill

A Theory of Participation in OTC and Centralized Markets
w25879 Roger E.A. Farmer
The Indeterminacy School in Macroeconomics
w25874 Fatih Karahan
Benjamin Pugsley
Ayşegül Şahin

Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit
w25869 Nicolas Crouzet
Janice C. Eberly

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles
w25868 Alonso de Gortari
Disentangling Global Value Chains
w25867 Andrew Foerster
Andreas Hornstein
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Mark W. Watson

Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends
w25843 Michael Bailey
Drew M. Johnston
Theresa Kuchler
Johannes Stroebel
Arlene Wong

Peer Effects in Product Adoption
w25839 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song

Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics
w25838 Yosef Bonaparte
Russell Cooper
Mengli Sha

Rationalizing Trading Frequency and Returns: Maybe Trading is Good for You
w25826 Robert J. Barro
Double-Counting of Investment
w25824 Christoph E. Boehm
Aaron Flaaen
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Multinationals, Offshoring and the Decline of U.S. Manufacturing
w25821 Stefan Steinerberger
Aleh Tsyvinski

Tax Mechanisms and Gradient Flows
w25820 Davide Debortoli
Jordi Galí
Luca Gambetti

On the Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Zero Lower Bound Constraint
w25811 John H. Cochrane
The Fiscal Roots of Inflation
w25808 Saki Bigio
Galo Nuño
Juan Passadore

A Framework for Debt-Maturity Management
w25804 Stefania Garetto
Lindsay Oldenski
Natalia Ramondo

Multinational Expansion in Time and Space
w25801 Mi Luo
Simon Mongey

Assets and Job Choice: Student Debt, Wages and Amenities
w25793 Matthias Schlegl
Christoph Trebesch
Mark L.J. Wright

The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt
w25792 Peter Hooper
Frederic S. Mishkin
Amir Sufi

Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?
w25790 Felipe Benguria
Alan M. Taylor

After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade
w25783 Been-Lon Chen
Hung-Ju Chen
Ping Wang

Long-Run Tax Incidence in a Human Capital-based Endogenous Growth Model with Labor-Market Frictions
w25782 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Hélène Rey
Maxime Sauzet

The International Monetary and Financial System
w25780 Tasso Adamopoulos
Diego Restuccia

Land Reform and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis with Micro Data
w25778 James D. Hamilton
Measuring Global Economic Activity
w25769 Daniel L. Greenwald
Martin Lettau
Sydney C. Ludvigson

How the Wealth Was Won: Factors Shares as Market Fundamentals
w25768 Christina D. Romer
David H. Romer

Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why
w25764 Eric T. Swanson
Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia
w25761 Daniel Cooper
María José Luengo-Prado
Jonathan A. Parker

The Local Aggregate Effects of Minimum Wage Increases
w25757 Michael Gelman
Shachar Kariv
Matthew D. Shapiro
Dan Silverman

Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds
w25756 Ufuk Akcigit
Sina T. Ates

What Happened to U.S. Business Dynamism?
w25755 Ufuk Akcigit
Sina T. Ates

Ten Facts on Declining Business Dynamism and Lessons from Endogenous Growth Theory
w25754 Wei Chen
Xilu Chen
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Song

A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts
w25744 Stefano Giglio
Matteo Maggiori
Johannes Stroebel
Stephen Utkus

Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios
w25743 Roger Farmer
Giovanni Nicolò

Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve
w25741 Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Ahmed Rahman
Alan M. Taylor

Trade, Technology, and the Great Divergence
w25734 Robert F. Engle III
Stefano Giglio
Bryan T. Kelly
Heebum Lee
Johannes Stroebel

Hedging Climate Change News
w25732 Paolo Acciari
Alberto Polo
Giovanni L. Violante

"And Yet It Moves": Intergenerational Mobility in Italy
w25725 Charles I. Jones
Taxing Top Incomes in a World of Ideas
w25720 Scott R. Baker
Nicholas Bloom
Steven J. Davis
Kyle J. Kost

Policy News and Stock Market Volatility
w25719 David W. Berger
Kyle F. Herkenhoff
Simon Mongey

Labor Market Power
w25714 Charles W. Calomiris
Harry Mamaysky

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes
w25707 Andrew Caplin
John V. Leahy

Wishful Thinking
w25703 Robert J. Gordon
Hassan Sayed

The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown
w25702 Itzhak Ben-David
Pascal Towbin
Sebastian Weber

Expectations During the U.S. Housing Boom: Inferring Beliefs from Actions
w25698 Adriano A. Rampini
S. Viswanathan
Guillaume Vuillemey

Risk Management in Financial Institutions
w25695 Erik Brynjolfsson
Avinash Collis
W. Erwin Diewert
Felix Eggers
Kevin J. Fox

GDP-B: Accounting for the Value of New and Free Goods in the Digital Economy
w25690 Ravi Bansal
Shane Miller
Dongho Song
Amir Yaron

The Term Structure of Equity Risk Premia
w25688 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

A Short Note on Aggregating Productivity
w25685 Adrien Auclert
Will S. Dobbie
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief: Consumer Bankruptcy Protections in the Great Recession
w25667 Zheng Liu
Pengfei Wang
Tao Zha

A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
w25662 Eduardo Dávila
Cecilia Parlatore

Trading Costs and Informational Efficiency
w25660 Wyatt J. Brooks
Joseph P. Kaboski
Yao Amber Li
Wei Qian

Exploitation of Labor? Classical Monopsony Power and Labor's Share
w25658 Eric M. Leeper
Campbell B. Leith
Ding Liu

Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary, Fiscal and Debt Maturity Policy
w25655 Stefania Albanesi
Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment
w25653 Òscar Jordà
Moritz Schularick
Alan M. Taylor

The Total Risk Premium Puzzle
w25629 Margaret M. Jacobson
Eric M. Leeper
Bruce Preston

Recovery of 1933
w25628 John Grigsby
Erik Hurst
Ahu Yildirmaz

Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data
w25625 Robert E. Hall
Marianna Kudlyak

Job-Finding and Job-Losing: A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics
w25621 Olivier J. Blanchard
Public Debt and Low Interest Rates
w25617 Jonathan Heathcote
Kjetil Storesletten
Giovanni L. Violante

Optimal Progressivity with Age-Dependent Taxation
w25610 Paul Dolfen
Liran Einav
Peter J. Klenow
Benjamin Klopack
Jonathan D. Levin
Laurence Levin
Wayne Best

Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce
w25609 Germán Gutiérrez
Callum Jones
Thomas Philippon

Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy
w25606 Isaac Baley
Laura Veldkamp
Michael E. Waugh

Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?
w25599 Daniel Sichel
Eric von Hippel

Household Innovation, R&D, and New Measures of Intangible Capital
w25585 Seth G. Benzell
Erik Brynjolfsson

Digital Abundance and Scarce Genius: Implications for Wages, Interest Rates, and Growth
w25573 Hui Chen
Scott Joslin
Sophie X. Ni

Demand for Crash Insurance, Intermediary Constraints, and Risk Premia in Financial Markets
w25571 Marcus Hagedorn
Iourii Manovskii
Kurt Mitman

The Fiscal Multiplier
w25563 George A. Alessandria
Horag Choi

The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate: The J Curve and Trade Costs?
w25558 Daniel E. Sichel
Productivity Measurement: Racing to Keep Up
w25550 Marcela Eslava
John C. Haltiwanger
Alvaro Pinzón

Job creation in Colombia vs the U.S.: "up or out dynamics" meets "the life cycle of plants".
w25546 Daniel G. Garrett
Eric C. Ohrn
Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato

Tax Policy and Local Labor Market Behavior
w25540 Victor Stango
Jonathan Zinman

We are all Behavioral, More or Less: Measuring and Using Consumer-level Behavioral Sufficient Statistics
w25536 Robert J. Shiller
Narratives about Technology-Induced Job Degradations Then and Now
w25531 Valerie A. Ramey
Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?
w25529 Germán Gutiérrez
Thomas Philippon

Fading Stars
w25523 Timothy J. Kehoe
Carlos Gustavo Machicado
José Peres-Cajías

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Bolivia, 1960-2017
w25520 Eduardo Dávila
Benjamin M. Hébert

Optimal Corporate Taxation Under Financial Frictions
w25519 John B. Donaldson
Rajnish Mehra

Average Crossing Time: An Alternative Characterization of Mean Aversion and Reversion
w25515 Maryam Farboodi
Roxana Mihet
Thomas Philippon
Laura Veldkamp

Big Data and Firm Dynamics
w25511 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Mauricio Ulate

Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures
w25508 Robert J. Barro
Brian Wheaton

Incorporation, and Productivity
w25505 Ernest Liu
Atif Mian
Amir Sufi

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth
w25502 Anders Jensen
Employment Structure and the Rise of the Modern Tax System
w25498 Finn Kydland
Nick Pretnar

The Costs and Benefits of Caring: Aggregate Burdens of an Aging Population
w25496 Francesco D’Acunto
Daniel Hoang
Maritta Paloviita
Michael Weber

IQ, Expectations, and Choice
w25493 Alexander M. Bell
Raj Chetty
Xavier Jaravel
Neviana Petkova
John Van Reenen

Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors
w25492 Simon Jäger
Benjamin Schoefer
Josef Zweimüller

Marginal Jobs and Job Surplus: A Test of the Efficiency of Separations
w25490 Guillaume Blanc
Romain Wacziarg

Change and Persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d'Anxure 1730-1895
w25482 Olivier Coibion
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Michael Weber

Monetary Policy Communications and their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
w25478 Rava Azeredo da Silveira
Michael Woodford

Noisy Memory and Over-Reaction to News
w25477 Ana Babus
Kinda Cheryl Hachem

Markets for Financial Innovation
w25476 Jordi Galí
Luca Gambetti

Has the U.S. Wage Phillips Curve Flattened? A Semi-Structural Exploration
w25470 Ekaterina S. Jardim
Gary Solon
Jacob L. Vigdor

How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State
w25469 Emmanuel Farhi
Matteo Maggiori

China vs. U.S.: IMS Meets IPS
w25466 Steven J. Davis
John C. Haltiwanger

Dynamism Diminished: The Role of Housing Markets and Credit Conditions
w25465 Gabriel Ehrlich
John C. Haltiwanger
Ron S. Jarmin
David Johnson
Matthew D. Shapiro

Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities
w25463 Marina Halac
Pierre Yared

Fiscal Rules and Discretion under Limited Enforcement
w25462 Gabriel Zucman
Global Wealth Inequality
w25459 Laura Alfaro
Gonzalo Asis
Anusha Chari
Ugo Panizza

Corporate Debt, Firm Size and Financial Fragility in Emerging Markets
w25458 Laura Alfaro
Manuel García-Santana
Enrique Moral-Benito

On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
w25457 Alan J. Auerbach
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Daniel Murphy

Local Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Spillovers in the United States
w25452 Gary Gorton
Toomas Laarits
Tyler Muir

1930: First Modern Crisis
w25447 Jonathan I. Dingel
Kyle C. Meng
Solomon M. Hsiang

Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate
w25445 Roger E.A. Farmer
Pawel Zabczyk

A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
w25442 Matthew Smith
Danny Yagan
Owen M. Zidar
Eric Zwick

Capitalists in the Twenty-First Century
w25433 Eduardo Dávila
Cecilia Parlatore

Volatility and Informativeness
w25424 Dean Corbae
Pablo D'Erasmo

Capital Requirements in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics
w25421 Joao Ayres
Marcio Garcia
Diogo A. Guillén
Patrick J. Kehoe

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016
w25418 Gregor Jarosch
Ezra Oberfield
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Learning from Coworkers
w25417 Peter Ganong
Pascal J. Noel

Consumer Spending During Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications
w25416 Gauti B. Eggertsson
Ragnar E. Juelsrud
Lawrence H. Summers
Ella Getz Wold

Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel

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