Information Treatments, Hypotheticals, and Event Studies: Comparative Estimates

We study how consumer expectations respond to monetary policy announcements using a two-wave survey experiment around the September 2025 FOMC meeting. We compare three commonly used approaches to identifying causal effects on expectations: hypothetical ("vignette’’) scenarios, randomized control trials, and event studies. All three identification strategies yield qualitatively similar results: a rate cut reduces short- and long-run inflation expectations, raises expectations of economic activity, and lowers unemployment expectations. The estimated magnitudes are similar across the randomized controlled trial and event-study approaches, but relatively larger for vignette-based measures. Within-respondent comparisons further show that individuals who revise their expectations more in response to vignette scenarios also exhibit larger revisions following actual policy announcements and experimental information treatments.