An Empirical Evaluation of Some Long-Horizon Macroeconomic Forecasts

We are grateful to two anonymous referees, an Associate Editor, conference and seminar participants at the 2024 NBER-NSF Time Series Conference, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and New York, the Bank of England, the 2023 International Symposium on Forecasting, and the University of East Anglia. West thanks the US Social Security Administration (SSA) for financial support from grant RDR18000003, funded as part of the Retirement and Disability Research Consortium. The views, opinions, and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views, opinions, or policy of the SSA, any agency of the federal government, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Federal Reserve System, or NBER. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of its employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the contents of this report. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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