NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
loading...

Kurt G. Lunsford

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Research Department
P.O. Box 6387
Cleveland, OH 44101
Tel: 216-774-2540

E-Mail: EmailAddress: hidden: you can email any NBER-related person as first underscore last at nber dot org
Institutional Affiliation: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

NBER Working Papers and Publications

November 2018Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Rates
with Kenneth D. West: w25288
We study long run correlations between safe real interest rates in the U.S. and over 30 variables that have been hypothesized to influence real rates. The list of variables is motivated by an intertermporal IS equation, by models of aggregate savings and investment, and by reduced form studies. We use annual data, mostly from 1890 to 2016. We find that safe real interest rates are correlated as expected with demographic measures. For example, the long run correlation with labor force hours growth is positive, which is consistent with overlapping generations models. For another example, the long run correlation with the proportion of 40 to 64 year-olds in the population is negative. This is consistent with standard theory where middle-aged workers are high-savers who drive down real i...

Published: Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2019. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 113-139, October. citation courtesy of

 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us