Weather to Arrest

The positive correlation between high temperatures and crime is well established. I consider how random, within-month daily high temperature and precipitation affects arrests rather than incidents. I analyze jail records of a Prohibition Era southern city with mean summer daily high temperatures of 85�F without modern air conditioning, so outdoor temperatures are salient. I find that each 1�F increase in daily high temperatures leads to a 0.5% to 1.9% increase in all-offense arrests, with the largest effect on violence. I also find that severe droughts have no meaningful effect on violent or public order offenses but lead to a 17.2% increase in the daily number of arrests for fraud, forgery, and related offenses. The results are consistent with a hypothesis that more arrests occur on hot days because more crimes are committed on hot days. The results are also consistent with studies that identify a connection between droughts and crime in modern developing countries.